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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#601

Post by YZF »

esseph wrote: post #400
YZF wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GDP is still growing and inflation has come down. I agree tariffs contribute to inflation: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/eco... Before tariffs, in the post-pandemic recovery, we also didn't see hiring go back to pre-pandemic levels. There are other forces like AI adoption. I don't have good intuition around the connection between tariffs and jobs. Yes, higher inflation may require cooling d…

Because they're terrified of the uncertainty of the long tail of the tariffs. It takes months and months to see the products of those.

But the change in hiring trends goes back to the beginning of the pandemic. This can't all be explained by tariffs. There is always uncertainty about the future but it seems there's been a shift in behavior across the board (CEOs copying each other is also a problem) that has been lasting many years. I guess you could blame it on Trump's first presidency if you really want to make this political.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#602

Post by blackbear_ »

krior wrote: post #598
blackbear_ wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Loud and clear? Trump didn't even get half of the votes (49.8%) and almost 36% of eligible voters didn't vote, meaning that not even one third of the American public voted for this.

Popular vote does not matter to americans, otherwise they would have changed the voting system. 36% of voters said: I support every outcome of the election, no matter what. And we are now about half a year into his term and I see some complaining, but not one single person seriously opposing him and his politics. If the things he does were really that unpopular, he would not be able to do them. To me it seems like he…

> Popular vote does not matter to americans

The question is whether and how much these policies are supported, and the popular vote is obviously relevant in this regard.

> 36% of voters said: I support every outcome of the election, no matter what

That's not really true, for all you know those voters didn't support either outcome. You would expect a "loud and clear" victory not to leave one third of people unconvinced enough to avoid voting altogether.

> but not one single person seriously opposing him and his politics

Almost four hundred lawsuits have been filed against his administration, thousands of public protest events are happening, and the tariffs themselves were just ruled illegal. What does "serious" opposition look like to you? In any case, this is certainly not what "full support" looks like.

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/projects-series/trials-of-the-t...

https://time.com/7312601/anti-trump-administration-protests-...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgj7jxkq58o

> If the things he does were really that unpopular, he would not be able to do them.

What is the logic behind this?

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#603

Post by hippo22 »

judahmeek wrote: post #599
hippo22 wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The American worker has had their lunch eaten by the American capitalist class in conjunction with countries providing cheaper labor. By allowing unfettered labor arbitrage (i.e. tariff-free trade) the US has allowed their working class to be completely gutted. Combined with with unfettered illegal immigration (another Democratic Party position), the assault on the American worker is immense.

Unfettered illegal immigration is not a Democratic Party position. Both Obama & Biden deported more illegal immigrants than Trump. Due Process is a Democratic Party position that Republicans don't value. Actually, considering the lack of real penalties for employers of illegal aliens, I'd say that the acceptance by both parties of white-collar crime is the real problem. Properly prosecute rich criminals & illegal imm…

I agree more could be done in prosecuting employers. But supporting illegal immigrants absolutely was a part of the democrat platform. Sanctuary cities are not about supporting “due process.”

Also, the number of deportations does not tell the whole story. The number of illegal crossings under Biden was astronomical compared to both Obama and Trump.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#604

Post by dgfitz »

const_cast wrote: post #560
dgfitz wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe if Harris had made a few she would have won…

She did, everyone just sort of... pretended she didn't. So they could have plausible deniability for voting for Trump. See also: Harris is an elite! (Trump is more elite), Trump knows business (he's a pretty bad business man), Harris did nothing in office! (She was VP), Trump is the underdog! (He's literally already been president)

She did? What was her platform? I never did figure it out.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#605

Post by anecdatas »

speakfreely wrote: post #340
anecdatas wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a wealthier person (income of ~1m/year, give or take), I could not more strongly support Mamdani (no 'h' in Zohran's last name afaik). I want a candidate like him in my city to vote for.

If you're still measuring wealth by income, you're probably not in the bracket that is being discussed here. $1 million per year is an extremely comfortable income, but it would take 30 years of saving that, post tax, before you hit $30 million in net worth, which is the entry point for UHNW status.

Totally. I'm someone who could choose to enter the capital class via purchasing rental properties or investing heavily in stocks, but I deliberately do not.

Capital class wildly different than wealthier working class. But in all honesty, bring the taxes all the way down to me at least. Anyone making a million a year could be taxed a lot more and still live comfortably. The capital class above me could afford a LOT more taxation and still live lives of unbridled luxury.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#606

Post by anecdatas »

RhysU wrote: post #495
anecdatas wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Normally I'd be quippy about the plural of anecdote not being "data", but this isn't even plural. This is a single anecdote. The claim you have made is "I have encountered fraud, personally, so the system is a disaster." Well run systems experience fraud. It's something you generally want to minimize, but like, it's not necessarily an indicator that the system is broken. Like... AWS has tons of fraud. AWS is still ve…

As claimed, light reading confirms this observation to be data not anecdata. "NY's COVID unemployment fraud topped $11B, partly due to system failures..." https://www.yahoo.com/news/nys-covid-unemployment-fraud-topp...

Look at more recent data. https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/state-agencies/audits/pdf/sga-2...

It looks like fraud rate was typically 5-10%, which might be high, might be "fine". In 2020-21 and 21-22 fraud rate jumped way up to 20%, which is obviously way too high.

But in 2023-24 fraud rate is back down below 10%. We don't have 24-25 data yet, but it looks to me like we had a couple of unusual years during the pandemic, but audit controls seem to have reigned a lot of that back in.

I'd say, evaluate this year's data and then decide if this was a blip or not, then revise your mental model with data.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#607

Post by [deleted] »

9dev wrote: post #372
foxylad wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an example, I'm pretty sure I just took up some of the slack here in NZ. I've been looking at installing solar for a while, and a particularly good quote for a Chinese system (Sigen) recently made me go ahead. I strongly suspect the unusually good price and fast delivery were due to cancelled US demand. OT: Solar is awesome ! 18 panels are generating 2/3 of our load, despite it being late winter. And a 16kWh batte…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#608

Post by krior »

blackbear_ wrote: post #602
krior wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Popular vote does not matter to americans, otherwise they would have changed the voting system. 36% of voters said: I support every outcome of the election, no matter what. And we are now about half a year into his term and I see some complaining, but not one single person seriously opposing him and his politics. If the things he does were really that unpopular, he would not be able to do them. To me it seems like he…

> Popular vote does not matter to americans The question is whether and how much these policies are supported, and the popular vote is obviously relevant in this regard. > 36% of voters said: I support every outcome of the election, no matter what That's not really true, for all you know those voters didn't support either outcome. You would expect a "loud and clear" victory not to leave one third of people unconvince…

> The question is whether and how much these policies are supported, and the popular vote is obviously relevant in this regard.

They are supported by the election. The american puplic accepted the result. Popular vote is not relevant for Trump.

> That's not really true, for all you know those voters didn't support either outcome. You would expect a "loud and clear" victory not to leave one third of people unconvinced enough to avoid voting altogether.

Maybe they had different reasons, but unfortunately thats not how not casting a vote works in a democracy. If you do not vote, you support the winner, no matter your intentions.

> Almost four hundred lawsuits have been filed against his administration

Trump has every branch of the government in his hand, law does not matter to him. Besides, he is a convicted criminal already. A few more lost lawsuits don't matter.

> Thousands of public protest events are happening

And millions of americans are not attending. Feels more like a vocal minority to me than a real movement.

> the tariffs themselves were just ruled illegal

I have not followed closely, but someday it gets to the supreme court and they will say "the president can do whatever he want", like they have said in the past.

> What does "serious" opposition look like to you?

Something that prevents Trump from executing his plans. Something that prevents Trump from just doing whatever he wants.

> time.com: "...thousands of protesters attended demonstrations on Independence Day..."

Thousands? Thats a fraction of a fraction of the american population. I am sorry, but I fail to see how that supports your point.

I will have to admit I am a little jaded when it comes to the US, but you must forgive me: when the US threatens your country with war, a lot of nuance goes out of the window. If an american clusterbomb kills me and my family tomorrow, I won't care that it has been ruled illegal by some lower court (Trump won't either).

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#609

Post by nitwit005 »

RhysU wrote: post #286
lazarus01 wrote: post #69

In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in. NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html

I do not trust NY job numbers. Their unemployment system remains a disaster from the Covid years. Source: Me trying to use it and encountering prior fraud. Light reading suggests many have experienced it.

Unemployment numbers will never work for counting the number of people actually unemployed. They do work for seeing unemployment trends. A ton of people suddenly applying for unemployment is a pretty clear signal.

Edit: typo

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#610

Post by bongodongobob »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #429
bongodongobob wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was best practice until maybe 10 years ago. Point the people in charge of that to the NIST standards.

I hear cyber insurance companies (ransomware cover etc) still require outdated standards.

People think cyber insurance requirements are hard rules, but they aren't. For the most part, you just need to show effort as it's completely impossible to be 100% compliant with all standards. For example, if you weren't rotating passwords but had proper MFA on your accounts, you're fine. Hell they even have conflicting standards sometimes. I've been through this multiple times when I worked at an MSP. For the most part, leadership just pushes to meet those standards to cya, which makes sense, but as long as you don't demonstrate gross negligence, they'll pay out.
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