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US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

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Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#601

Post by energy123 »

nilkn wrote: post #521

I don't know how I feel about this overall. But I do want to recount something from my childhood. I'm American. I grew up in the rural Midwest. The truth is that much of this country is a depressing shell of its former self. The town I grew up in is all but dead -- about 12,000 people still live there, though. The nearest big city, previously a hub of manufacturing innovation, has been on a steady decline for decades…

The lack of longevity to these tariffs is part of the problem with them. Why would anyone invest in a factory when everyone knows these tariffs are likely going to be short lived, making any capex wasted. Capital is going to try to wait this out. It's short term pain and long term pain.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#602

Post by parsimo2010 »

TrackerFF wrote: post #62

From what I understand, de minimis exemption has also been removed. That is a huge, huge deal. It effectively means that all goods imported from China will be slapped with a 30% import tax, as soon as said goods arrive the US border / customs. Usually what happens then, is that the courier will pay that tax, and then bill the recipient later on - as well as charge some fee/fees for the work done. This is why in some…

I suspect that this $25/50 per item policy is to prevent people from claiming a lower value than the actual price of the item. I've received international packages marked "gift" with a value of $10 that I had paid much more for.

I doubt the US will even manufacture substitutes for most of the things I liked and ordered from AliExpress. People with hobbies primarily supplied by Chinese manufacturing (like mine- electronics, 3D printing, FPV drones) are just going to be paying more for the same thing. There's no way we'll get an American substitute for niche products- all the US chip fabs are going to be filled with orders for higher dollar parts.

Note that the fact sheet says per item, not per shipment. So there doesn't even seem to be a way to make one big purchase of several items to pay a single fee. They will hit you for every item in the shipment.

Quick edit: I also note that the fact sheet makes a distinction between things sent through international post vs. other means. If you send via UPS/FedEx/DHL there will be regular customs fees (34%?), and through post you will have the $25/50 per item fee. So I will definitely have to pay attention to the shipping method for anything bought from AliExpress from now on.

Quick edit 2: I literally have a PicoCalc from ClockworkPi coming in the mail in a few days- I guess we'll see if DHL charges me any extra fees.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#603

Post by xnx »

cs702 wrote: post #592

Three things: 1. On the face of it, this looks horrible. I won't rehash the many arguments against it here, though. This page is already chock-full of those arguments. 2. Robot labor could make ultra-low-cost manufacturing possible in the US, to the point that many things become cheaper to make locally than to ship from abroad, tariffs or or no tariffs. 3. If any major country/region negotiates lower tariffs by fully…

> If any major country/region reacts by negotiating lower tariffs in exchange for a full opening of its market to US products

Would any country trust the US in a negotiation?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#604

Post by macinjosh »

phillipseamore wrote: post #90

A blanket 10% minimum tariff is a great excuse for any local US manufacturing to increase their prices. I used to live in a country with heavy tariffs, every time tariffs were raised the local producers increased prices to be just below the imports. Even after the tariffs were abolished the prices (on local and imports) never really lowered in any significant way.

This is expected and normal? Demand for locally sourced goods will skyrocket which means prices should as well. What you are leaving out is that the US is well capitalized and those sky high prices will be a strong incentive for more competitors to join the market. With competition in place prices will eventually fall. Prices will likely never go back as low but at least our fellow countrymen will be employed, housed and hopeful instead of on the streets doing fentanyl.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#605

Post by sathackr »

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

"If the fed won't lower the interest rate I'll tank the economy until they do!"

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#606

Post by specialist »

hnarn wrote: post #526

I'm European. While it's pretty childish to paint the US and the EU as two human being with a "relationship" it's of course pretty jarring to see a country that has for my entire life been the undisputed cultural hegemony simply check out of the world stage and suddenly treat everyone on "their" side (culturally, politically and economically) like an enemy, or at the very least an abuser. I'm not an economist, but I…

#1 Per our Constitution, USA has minoritarian rule baked in.

There's many anti-democratic choke points: Electoral College for POTUS, Supreme Court, US Senate, gerrymandering effect on US House, long history of systemic disenfranchisement, etc. aka Vetocracy per Francis Fukuyama.

#2 ~6m Biden voters stayed home in 2024.

There's a sizeable cohort of infrequent voters and a huge cohort of non-voters who self disenfranchise. Due to nihilism (voting doesn't matter), both parties are the same, low motivation, whatever.

#3 Like most everywhere else, our information ecology is broken, fragmented.

The audience for "traditional" media's news is tiny, compared to social media. The Dems focus on "traditional" whereas GOP have successfully embraced "social". So for all the billions spent every presidential election (political advertising), most voters don't ever hear from Democrats.

Therefore, US voters are mostly unable to correlate policy positions with politic parties. So mass politics really comes down to marketing and vibes.

#4 Addressing these "legitamacy" issues (government by consent of the governed) is wicked hard when one of our two political parties has been utterly opposed to democracy and effective governance for decades.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#607

Post by zerreh50 »

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

An economic crisis will reduce tax income though, reducing the ability of government to pay even if the interest is lower

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#608

Post by peeters »

nailer wrote: post #558

The media has been perpetuating that that tariffs are borne by consumers. This is partially the case, but not entirely: US dairy in Canada is not 3 x the price of Canadian dairy despite the 200% + tariff.

Admittedly without knowing much about our dairy industry and supply management, isn't this flawed logic? If a 200% import tariff means Canadian dairy can also be sold at a higher cost, then it's still the consumers bearing the cost--they are being denied access to cheaper dairy altogether.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#609

Post by belter »

roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

The US has a trade surplus with the UK, and the UK got a 10% tariff :-) Who's ripping off who?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#610

Post by papercrane »

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

A plan like that could backfire, as one of the primary things that the Fed looks at when setting interest rates is inflation. Increasing the costs of imports across the board will likely increase inflation, which would make a rate cut less likely.

But in general, I think this is too complicated. The simpler explanation for all this is the Executive branch is currently held by isolationist.

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