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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

charleshughsmith.substack.com

601–610 of 1001 posts

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#601
post #519
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And those precautions are… putting out the fire before it spreads, right?

No. Forest fires should be allowed to spread to prevent fuel buildup. It’s bad when they cross into developed areas, though, so you want to prevent that. If anyone ever implements your drone-based surveillance-state wildland fire suppression system, please let me know so I can avoid hiking in the area.

That seems incredibly dangerous. As you said the wind can pick them up and cause an inferno.

If you want to do controlled fires IN ADDITION to the fire suppression system, you can. If fires are the only way to neutralize the fuel, at least control them, and don’t allow any uncontrolled fire to spread and get out of hand. The controlled burns would be planned in advance, done on good days and isolated from spreading too far. Of course those burns would be excluded from the fire suppression system.

But it seems reckless to just “let the fires spread”. You need actual control over fires if you want to have any chance of avoiding disasters.

Imagine you did this in any other area where you're in charge of a system. For example you run a forum and refuse to implement any sort of moderation or spam control. You claim we shouldn't put anything in place to clamp down on it and need to let things run their course naturally, because sometimes risking spam is necessary to get really good updates about stuff by experts. The proper thing to do, then, is to intercept spam from spreading as much as possible but then carve out a whitelist of exceptions. Not to simply not have an anti-spam system at all.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#602
Insurance needs to be not-for-profit or a government enterprise. Physical projects and infrastructure should not be started until risk is assessed. Speculators and go-go finance has ought to be constrained. As for myself, I am choosing alternative ways to plan, finance, build, and manage infrastructure project. The current systems is a non-starter for most people under 50.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#604

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

America isn't the only place having an uptick in extreme weather events, though.

Spain just had the worst flooding ever, Australia has massive wildfire issues, coastal areas all over the world are flooding, inland areas are dealing with drought. It's definitely not just the US.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#605
The problem is that in American home-buying, insurance is often compulsory for a purchase with a mortgage. This makes sense from the bank's perspective--they want to insure their collateral. However, the system doesn't really have an answer for "what happens when their collateral becomes uninsurable?" Even though lenders have force-placed insurance, even those insurers can deny coverage in certain circumstances (e.g. flood plain). This puts insurers in a position to de-facto foreclose on not just one person's house, but swaths of houses in regions they (as an industry) deem risky.

I'm not sure what the answer is here other than forcing insurers to insure (which would raise premiums for everyone), or creating meta-insurance of some kind (insurance against becoming uninsured).

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where is “here”? Are you sure you aren’t confusing hurricanes and tornados? Hurricanes rarely destroy houses in the US, either.

How are you making this claim? Every time a hurricane hits Florida, there are photos of entire neighborhoods devastated by wind and storm surge. How many people were permanently displaced by Katrine? Etc. Maybe many of the homes weren't technically "destroyed", but each storm brings millions or billions in damage.

Hurricanes usually don't affect the structure of a house. They might damage the roof, parts of exterior cladding, perhaps windows, and the flooding which accompanies hurricanes destroys personal possessions, interior furnishing, electrical wiring, and appliances.

In the US, manual labor is very expensive, home construction or repair is highly regulated and requires permits and multiple inspections from the local government, and the amount of flood-destroyable stuff - material possessions, furnishings, appliances - in a typical home is massive. As a result, a cyclone which a poorer country would survive with a shrug in the US becomes an extremely expensive disaster.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#607
post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't know that fox news was in charge of forestry in LA.

Nope. Last time I checked, they were in the business of spewing hate and misinformation (sorry: Alternative facts ), undermining any sensible discussion. Accusing thousands of people of being incompetent is more telling of you than them.

>Accusing thousands of people of being incompetent is more telling of you than them.

Not me. Facts on the ground do it. Honest question - if I wish upon you every medical professional from now on that treats you and your family to be as competent as the part of the administrative state that is responsible for wild fire management and prevention in LA - will you take that as a blessing or a curse?

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#608
post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Get out of here, who is building a home out of cardboard?

Drywall is two sheets of paper/cardboard cladding (increasingly) low density gypsum. Soundproofing material is also often made of cardboard (though we do have alternatives for that, unlike drywall).

Right, so the house is not constructed out of cardboard. Soundproofing in my part of the US is often rockwool and not cardboard.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#609
post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would anyone tear down a 20 year old house? Where I live the houses are 80-100 years old and they’re better built and nicer to live in than most newer homes.

Basically houses in Japan are treated like cars -- as something that doesn't appreciate in value as in most places but rather depreciate over time. Some of this is maybe cultural from the time when houses in Japan were literally constructed with paper. https://www.learnedinjapan.com/no-buy-home-japan/

That is a fascinating cultural perspective and explains a lot of things to me:

I've always treated cars like houses are in the USA- I buy an older higher end car like a Porsche, keep it in perfect shape, and expect it to appreciate- and it does. Most cars I've owned I ultimately sold for much more than I paid. I've never understood why anyone would waste money on a depreciating car, especially when a fully depreciated high end car is so much nicer and cheaper than a low end new one. Airplanes are not mechanically that different than a car, yet generally last and hold value if maintained.

I've also never understood why people in the USA assume houses will always appreciate, as if it is a law of nature or something- when at its core houses can't appreciate forever relative to inflation, because there is a hard cap somewhere below people paying 100% of income for housing. This basically proves it is just a combination of a culture that values older housing in the USA and regulatory capture preventing new construction. New houses are often seen as "cold," "sterile," or "lacking character" in the USA- and the stereotype of a successful wealthy person is in a giant old mansion.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#610

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

A key issue in the LA fires was bad management at all levels of government that could have prevented an order of magnitude of the damage (If procedures from the past were followed).
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