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How to Start Google

paulgraham.com

601–610 of 681 posts

Re: How to Start Google

#601
post #414
post #36

I know people mention that this advice smacks of survivorship bias, and I think that's pretty obviously going to be a part of any advice given about economic outcomes whose odds of working out are perhaps a whole order of magnitude better than lottery tickets I think it's more important to note how talks like this use "children" as an excuse to present a very sanitized version of the history being discussed. I think…

Why do think this is an "American" thing? The author is British, for one.

My bad, it's just that literally every single example he gave was a US company, so I got mixed up

That said, the US and Britain are both quite world-class at both endorsing lying to children and revisionist history are definitely among

Re: How to Start Google

#602
post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's expecting the high reward which is high risk. Creating a small business that can trudge along and pay you a modest salary is fairly common.

PG's post was called "How to start Google"

And starting Google is the high-risk high-reward thing.

Re: How to Start Google

#603

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This remains a bundling of two levers that we at one time tangentially related, but have sharply diverged: learning difficult topics in a deep and time-efficient way, and building a potent network. It's all but universally acknowledged that technology represents the highest-leverage tool in the arsenal of getting things done in a leveraged way and this includes learning difficult topics in a time-efficient way. The b…

It's all but universally acknowledged that technology represents the highest-leverage tool in the arsenal of getting things done in a leveraged way and this includes learning difficult topics in a time-efficient way. This isn't an argument. Not everyone wants to stare at a computer for 15 hours a day. Maybe you do. Some people prefer in-person interaction and discussion, others don't. Yes, in 1-to-1 comparisons, a Yo…

We've arrived at a point in the conversation where your assertions are (for the most part) correct in at least a narrow way. But there were several epistemological sleights of hand involved in getting from point A to point B that you as an eminent philosopher can trivially identify at least as easily as I can, at least in hindsight.

First, you've elided the unambiguous context of the OP's essay and my response to it: I said it's dangerous for people who miss getting into and through an elite university education without burdensome and difficult-to-discharge debt to go for broke anyways: the typical outcome there is the typical outcome of modern university education in general, which is a pile of debt for a mediocre education with a lift on employment outcomes asymptotically approaching zero and trivially not justifying the cost of the debt and the debt service, and a network of principally personal social utility. When the cheese at the end of the maze is "getting rich", that's a bad play.

Another important piece of context you've used as a wedge (because I didn't dissect his essay via cherry-picked quotes, assuming that everyone who cared had read it and internalized the broader context) is that pg is clearly addressing people who he hopes will become high-achieving technologists, at a point in life where the decision is around a STEM undergraduate education with large class sizes and and a decaying level of interaction with faculty or other eminent thinkers affiliated with the university.

This is nothing like a philosophy degree from an eminent university that involves freewheeling face-to-face interaction with some of the sharpest and most disruptive thinkers in a field, and furthermore in a field with very subjective measures on short time horizons about who has or has not made lasting contributions. We argue to this day about the philosophical and epistemological impact of work done millennia ago: right off the top of my head people debate whether or not Augustine was a key figure in the development of a modern sense of personal identity, and the debate about who was worth listening in these areas was very old then [1]. There is no evidence that's ever been presented to me that we can identify worthwhile contributions to philosophy on a time scale measured in years or even decades: people who devote their lives to such pursuits are optimizing for posterity, a very worthy thing to optimize for in my opinion but rarely one a person ever knows the outcome on in their lifetime.

Furthermore, the exact immersive scenario you're describing requires nothing like the nepotism, barriers to entry, or cost structure of a modern elite university: we've erected barriers around class dynamics, wealth dynamics, and admissions that had far better solutions with the cost structure of a coffee shop in recent history [2]. We've eradicated that institution intentionally or unintentionally in favor of something defense-procurement markup expensive, with admissions criteria constantly plagued by scandal and lawsuit [3] after scandal [4], which welcomes false positives on admissions when attached to wealth and power [5], and sees false negatives on groundbreaking contribution unambiguous in contribution [6] when not attached to wealth and power, at least until forced to by mathematical rigor.

And in your conclusion you've linked learning, broadly construed, with learning how to operate in circles where people face no consequences, continue to act unilaterally on behalf of the commons, and fuck up constantly [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] to put any question about their innate capability at anything other than learning how to work the socio-economic, professional, and academic class systems and maintain those distinctions by stepping on people who were both right and doing the right thing [11] via thuggery [12].

Almost all destructive forces with actual power [13] [14] [15] trace clear intellectual, academic, and philosophical origins to the work of academics or other noted intellectuals on the wrong side of history [16] [17] [18] [19].

So the question for you here isn't whether or not the world currently works they way you're describing, for the elite few it does. The question is what team you're playing for from a post of extremely influential privilege. Things aren't going well for the non-elites, and I don't think pg was trying to send 1-3% of his audience into a decaying elite subsidized by leading the other 97% to the slaughter in the form of useless degrees with mountains of debt. He's backed the wrong horse on a few things, but he's a fundamentally good guy.

[1] https://academic.oup.com/book/4734/chapter-abstract/14697047... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salon_(gathering) [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v... [4] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/claudine-g... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legacy_preferences [5] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10798.pdf [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Summers [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management [8] https://www.npr.org/2008/10/24/96070766/greenspan-admits-fre... [10] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/22/tech/larry-summers-openai... [11] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooksley_Born [12] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/warning/ [13] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Totalitarianism [14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populism [15] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cancel_culture [16] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx [17] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman [18] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayn_Rand [19] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Foucault

Re: How to Start Google

#604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a romantic idea until you realize you're now dealing and subservient to the dredges of society, the worst kinds of customers, the worst kind of people. Far worse than a niche market specialized technology sales prospect. Get ready to have a new contempt for humanity. Get ready to be raked over the coals by Yelp.

Lol hell yeah brother my local coffee shop regulars are well known for being the dredges of society.

Coffee shop? Customers fine, but health inspectors and rent increases are your antihero. As well as too much competition.

Re: How to Start Google

#605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to my 25 and 15 year old self, my 35 (now 40) self is a lot wiser in terms of dealing with people, applying humility and being crisp on the wide gulf between "what I find is worth doing at the moment" and "what's valuable." I think these are all hugely valuable and serve me well.

LLMs are increasingly good at your 40 year old soft social skills like humility, so don't bank on that being worth much very long.

I was as young, arrogant and naïve as you once.

Re: How to Start Google

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This so much. I'm 36 and I can afford to not work for many years with my savings. It's definitely easier now for me.

While I also consider myself lucky, not everyone works as a software engineer earning high salaries. Being older also (usually) means more responsibilities and less tolerance for risk.

Very true, I think that while my savings are very good, I would have much less risk tolerance if I had kids.

Re: How to Start Google

#607
post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they're saying 1000 bets on random foundational technology means PG is more likely to have a startup to invest in that's a winner, then necessarily giving good advice to the individual founder who doesn't have 1000 turns at the wheel.

The founder who tries to do something boring and profitable ends up doing things like making another CRM or some kind of SaaS pipeline from one thing to another. These tend to be things that get built anyway by the people with more funding. There's so many CRMs built on top of vtiger open source, and these may be better than vtiger for a while, but in the long run they fall behind. Paradoxically, avoiding risks makes…

And yet, what makes most people on average the most amount of money is working on boring problems, not sexy, new technology problems. That is what is mainly implied by the top level parent. For every Elon making rockets, many more are more likely to make a significant amount of money just building another CRM.

Re: How to Start Google

#608

What is the parallel advice for a 40 year old? I guess the programming and tinkering stuff still applies. But university cannot be redone. Sure I can study but I wont have any connection to most young people. I’ll be the old guy. And this assumes I can afford the loss of income. I assume a lot of start ups are started by older people too. I think for older people an advantage is to solve older people problems. Like h…

>Also being older I don’t care about making a unicorn. I see that as an odd goal for a founder of any age but a great goal for an investor. Looking at the state of open source software today a google is simply impossible because the ecosystem has rotted from the inside. Look at how much effort it took to write the cgi-bin scripts google started with vs whatever flavour of the week JS framework you have to use now. No…

> Not sure what the solution is but we need fewer sheep in development and less permissive licenses so developers doing unglamorous work can capture more of the value.

This is the nuts of it.

Re: How to Start Google

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true if you require the same amount of income to maintain your lifestyle, but if you've been working in tech for 20 years, you have savings. I'm not in my 40s yet, but it's much more viable for me to take a risk now than it was when I was just starting out because I can afford to fail for a couple years without, you know, becoming homeless.

This so much. I'm 36 and I can afford to not work for many years with my savings. It's definitely easier now for me.

Using savings when younger can significantly increase your overall retirement age. There, however, is also a risk of not starting a company in time (or having enough time to complete and perhaps exit a business) by waiting until you are fully retired. How one wants to slice that risk to reward ratio is up to them. My option is the higher parent's one, starting side hustles until slowly they take over my main income, such that I feel no loss of quality of life and I'd still retire when I want to. It is akin to rolling green-blue deployments rather than shut-down-the-server deployments.

Re: How to Start Google

#610

What is the parallel advice for a 40 year old? I guess the programming and tinkering stuff still applies. But university cannot be redone. Sure I can study but I wont have any connection to most young people. I’ll be the old guy. And this assumes I can afford the loss of income. I assume a lot of start ups are started by older people too. I think for older people an advantage is to solve older people problems. Like h…

>Also being older I don’t care about making a unicorn. I see that as an odd goal for a founder of any age but a great goal for an investor. Looking at the state of open source software today a google is simply impossible because the ecosystem has rotted from the inside. Look at how much effort it took to write the cgi-bin scripts google started with vs whatever flavour of the week JS framework you have to use now. No…

But, no one is forcing you to use the latest JS framework, you can still write cgi-bin scripts if you wanted...

There is no need to follow the trend du jour, it is some fallacy that you're describing that somehow it's easier then than today when the technology is largely backwards compatible.

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