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OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

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Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#601
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

On backtracking, I thought tree-of-thought enabled that? "considering multiple different reasoning paths and self-evaluating choices to decide the next course of action, as well as looking ahead or backtracking when necessary to make global choices" https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.10601 Generally with you though, this thing is not leading to real smarts and that's accepted by many. Yes, it'll fill in a few gaps with expon…

Yes, there are various approaches like tree-of-thought. They don't fundamentally solve the problem because there are just too many paths to explore and inference is just too slow and too expensive to explore 10,000 or 100,000 paths just for basic problems that no one wanted to solve anyway.

The problem with solving such problems with LLMs is that if the solution to the problem is unlike problems seen in training, the LLM will almost every time take the wrong path and very likely won't even think of the right path at all.

The AI really does need to understand why the paths it tried failed in order to get insight into what might work. That's how humans work (well, one of many techniques we use). And despite what people think, LLMs really don't understand what they are doing. That's relatively easy to demonstrate if you get an LLM off distribution. They will double down on obviously erroneous illogic, rather than learn from the entirely new situation.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#602
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

Hubris

Whose, in this instance? I can see an argument for both

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#603

This matches far better with the board's letter re: firing Sam than a simple power struggle or disagreement on commercialisation. Seeing a huge breakthrough and then not reporting it to the board, who then find out via staff letter certainly counts as a "lack of candour".... As an aside, assuming a doomsday scenario, how long can secrets like this stay outside of the hands of bad actors? On a scale of 1 to enriched u…

Not long at all. Presumably you could write the method on the back of a napkin to lead another top AI researcher to the same result. That’s why trying to sit on breakthroughs is the worst option and making sure they are widely distributed along with alignment methods is the best option.

And what if there are no alignment methods.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#604
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

I don't know whether this particular article is bunk. I do know I've read many, many similar comments about how some complex task is beyond an conceivable model or system and then, years later, marveled at exactly that complex task being solved.

The article isn't describing something that will happen years later, but now. The comment author is saying that this current model is not AGI as it likely can't solve university-level mathematics, and they are presumably open to the possibility of a model years down the line that can do that.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#605
post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement you quoted also holds for humans. Of those who can solve grade school math problems, very, very few can solve mathematical problems at a research level.

We're moving the goalposts all the time. First we had the Turing test, now AI solving math problems "isn't impressive". Any small mistake is a proof it cannot reason at all. Meanwhile 25% humans think the Sun revolves around the Earth and 50% of students get the bat and ball problem wrong.

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#606
This reminds me that, with our species, the real power always lies with those that tell the better story. Skynet and HAL 9000 had a more profound impact on those researchers than years of practice and study in the field. No surprise therefore that the storytelling of someone like Trump is practically indelibly imprinted into the mind of his supporters.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#608
post #600
post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have done experiments trying to get GPT-4 to come up with viable conjectures. So far it does such a woefully bad job that it isn't worth even trying. Unfortunately there are rather a lot of issues which are difficult to describe concisely, so here is probably not the best place. Primary amongst them is the fact that an LLM would be a horribly inefficient way to do this. There are much, much better ways, which…

After a year the entire argument you make boils down to “so far”.

Indeed. LLM is an application on a transformer trained with backpropagation. What stops you from adding a logic/mathematic "application" on the same transformer?

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#609
post #316

I was talking to my (12 year old) son about parts of math he finds boring. He said that he thinks absolute value is absurdly easy and extremely boring. I asked him if there was anything that might make it more interesting, he said "maybe complex numbers". So I asked him "what would the absolute value of i+1 be?" he thinks for a little bit and says "square root of 2" and I ask him "what about the absolute value of 2i…

Sounds like your son is ready for you to bring it up another level and ask what the absolute value of a (bounded) function is (assuming they have played with functions e.g. in desmos)

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My mind went to Q learning.

My mind went to some kind of Q-learning combined with something like a Monte Carlo Tree Search with some kind of A*-style heuristic to effectively combine Q-learning and with short-horizon planning.

likewise. i can already imagine a* being useful for efficiently solving basic algebra and proofs.

it could form the basis of a generalized planning engine and that planning engine could potentially be dangerous given the inherent competitive reasoning behind any minmax style approach.

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