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The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

moneywise.com

601–610 of 1001 posts

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#601

Part of the problem is government regulation. In some places, it's almost impossible to build new houses due to regulations. Some portion of the population wants to see house prices continue to increase and they will vote for politicians who will implement policies which will support that agenda. Of course this happens at the expense of another, also large portion of the population who do not own a house and have to…

Immigration is such a straw man, an influx of people with generally low capital availability and incomes is clearly not the cause of expensively priced housing and rents. Saying government regulation causes it is also meaningless unless you specify WHAT government regulation you believe is causing housing issues, historical evidence clearly indicates that no regulation doesn’t lead to the outcome you desire. It’s very clear that the key is figuring out what sorts of regulation, taxes and laws would lead to an optimal solution and in order to begin to do that you really need to break down how the demand and supply of housing actually works.

The demand side of rent prices is generally based on the surplus value created by an area for its residents. The value of rent prices is all about providing signals about relative utility to potential residents. This is key because it means that absolute rent is largely unimportant, the relative rent is the key. All rent paid above actual services provided does not create economic value, it instead captures surplus value from its residents and delivers it to rentiers. The issue with rent control and other similar regulation is not that it limits overall rent levels, it’s that it distorts the relative signaling. However this needs to be balanced with the negative effects large rent increases have upon tenants. A world where people are constantly forced to move due to a rapidly changing market might be price efficient, but it creates lots of negative externalities. The key here is establishing rent rules that are loose enough to create accurate price signaling, but tight enough to minimize these externalities.

The demand side for purchasing for individuals is based on individuals and companies evaluating on a range of criteria which largely boils down to the utility it directly provides, the rent you can charge others for their utility in the properly (or conversely, the rent it allows you to avoid), and its value as a speculative investment. However it is clear that in the problematic markets we are discussing, the prices are extremely dominated by the latter two.

This leads to the supply side of this also being somewhat counterintuitive. People seeking to invest their capital in property actually have two primary ways of profiting: via rent collected or by appreciation in property value. If you own property, and you have additional capital to invest, do you invest in improving your existing housing stock or into buying additional property? The answer is you invest in whichever has the highest rate of return. In low housing stock environments the answer is going to typically be to invest it in additional property over improving existing properties. You might think that rising rents would change this ratio, but this gets it backwards. Rising rents leads directly to increased property values and so largely has the opposite effect, it encourages investment in buying property over improving it.

This makes it clear that to increase investment in housing stock, your best method is to discourage speculative investment in favor of investments that raise the quantity and quality of housing stock. The way you structure regulation, incentives and taxation should reflect this. Everything else is noise, and doesn't actually solve the problem.

Side note: An exception here happens in cases where development leads to massive differential between start and end value. This is why in these sorts of high speculation environments development becomes highly slanted towards turning low density buildings into massively high density, high margin buildings. This is generally not ideal, as this type of construction has lots of negative externalities on its surrounding neighborhoods, and tends to make communities averse to further development. Making lots of small incremental improvements in housing stock is far less disruptive to neighborhoods but will only really happen in environments slanted towards improvement over speculation.

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But other than zoning it seems it would help more if the government would step in to disallow large leasing companies buying up giant swathes of the housing stock just to flip into rentals. There was a timely video about this yesterday from Oh the Urbanity: https://youtu.be/BRqZBuu_Ers?si=NlavrFpm8sNTUcYp Summary is that Rotterdam did just this, and the effect was that the price to purchase a house did not measurab…

If more people actually owned, that's a positive.

The point is that the problem of mega corps is greatly overstated, and isn't really the root of the problem anyway. They are just an easy scapegoat.

Take them away and private "mom & pop" land lords quickly fill the void, and usually are much more stringent about who they will rent to and what they think a fair rent is.

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#603
post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> places like the bay area with a housing crisis and limited space to expand This is the most Californian response to the problem I’ve seen. Limited space? Even San Francisco has 190 acres of vacant land [1]. You want to emulate Singapore? Consider its relative lack of single-story structures. The Bay Area’s housing crisis is a political choice made by its voters. [1] https://escholarship.org/content/qt5gc6w0vd/qt5gc…

America is not Singapore. We have higher expectations around the amount of space than pretty much the whole rest of the world. And that's okay: we are also the world's wealthiest country. I agree though, that the current housing crisis is entirely the work of people who own influencing city governments much much more than renters (who have no choice but to move out of expensive locales).

If we're going to say "Americans want and expect more space", then we also have to be honest about the consequences that people who can't afford that minimum of space will either have to move or be homeless.

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bizarre idea contrary to how many housing affordability crisis were actually solved in the past. Would SF's housing prices go down if you were to build 10,000 new units? You're right, probably not that much. Would SF's housing prices go down if you were to build 1M new units? No doubt. Shenzhen grew from 100,000 people in the 1980s to 13M now with no housing affordability crisis...by building. The whole pea…

Shenzhen and Guangzhou are some of the least affordable cities in the world when it comes to housing prices. Yes, rents are actually not that bad and many units are vacant being just used as investments, but the cost to buy is astronomical given the Chinese housing bubble. Tokyo is an example where houses are torn down every 39 years so a new one can be built. Also, given the lack of population growth in Japan as a w…

Tokyo capped out and is now declining in population because there isn’t a backlog of millions of people who wanted to live there but couldn’t or had to move out because rent is 3x in Tokyo compared to Osaka.

Rent is maybe 30% higher in Tokyo, even less if you live on the end of a train line. Can you imagine how many people would move to Bay Area CA or New York City or Boston or Seattle if their rent was only 30% higher? Pre pandemic my 3 bedroom in Boston area was 3500/mo. Since the pandemic rents have gone even higher. We have bidding wars of people trying to win a rental unit. Bidding wars. It’s ridiculous.

Also I don’t see your point about houses being torn down. If anything that should make it more expensive (since buying used and not rebuilding is cheaper). Realistically rebuilding is vital (in conjunction with subdivision) because that’s how you increase density

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#605
post #100

I moved to Portland a year ago. We certainly have a lot of homeless people, many of which are people caught up in the substance abuse cycle with particular drugs. However, one day I was driving back to East Portland, I drove under an underpass that's a particularly rough place. I saw a woman that looked to be my mom's age with what appeared to be a modern suit case, she was well dressed, and sober looking. The blood…

Portland isn’t perfect but it’s doing a bit better than many places with the elimination of parking minimums and the relative ease of building ADUs.

I do love Portland, but I think within the city we're too uncritical of what goes on here; maybe it's a counter-reaction to sensational national coverage but, imo, equally unhelpful. Dense housing development is being pushed to Eastside (https://projects.oregonlive.com/maps/density/) which has caused the city to remove trees to expand roads because they built it on roads that weren't ready for it, East sides tree density is 2/3 of what it used to be, single unit housing development has stalled quite a bit, and homelessness/camping enforcement downtown (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/4c37f1c3b4d14f3599c...) is pushing the activity associated with it to Northeast and Southeast. If the tale of two Portlands wasn't already a story when I got here, it's definitely in its second chapter now.

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saw a YouTube video about row houses being built in Texas. They start at $135k to $160k ranging from 350sq ft to 600sq ft. You have to buy. Parking for one. No street parking. The feng shui is horrible/dystopian. They are all going to sell.

> Parking for one. Are you saying it’s too many or too few?

He/She is implying that it's below what's typical for a suburban home. Here are the houses in question: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/169231004512229387...?

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#607

Part of the problem is government regulation. In some places, it's almost impossible to build new houses due to regulations. Some portion of the population wants to see house prices continue to increase and they will vote for politicians who will implement policies which will support that agenda. Of course this happens at the expense of another, also large portion of the population who do not own a house and have to…

The issue is not supply and demand for houses - there are plenty enough to go around (though often in the wrong place). The issue is that a sizeable underclass is being created that have no wealth, not least because what wealth they did have has been funnelled to the very wealthy. For example, medical bills. For example student loans. For example zero interest rates with zero wage inflation meaning accommodation cost…

> This means taking wealth away from those who have amassed too much, and returning it to those who had it stolen from them.

Letting the government (especially the current system of governance) do such a task is an extremely dangerous move. This will most likely result in pulling more wealth from the middle-class to the upper-class.

There is no reason to believe that the government that enabled this will suddenly turned around 180 degrees. Almost always why a communist/socialist revolution results in more misery to the common man.

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#608
post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> places like the bay area with a housing crisis and limited space to expand This is the most Californian response to the problem I’ve seen. Limited space? Even San Francisco has 190 acres of vacant land [1]. You want to emulate Singapore? Consider its relative lack of single-story structures. The Bay Area’s housing crisis is a political choice made by its voters. [1] https://escholarship.org/content/qt5gc6w0vd/qt5gc…

America is not Singapore. We have higher expectations around the amount of space than pretty much the whole rest of the world. And that's okay: we are also the world's wealthiest country. I agree though, that the current housing crisis is entirely the work of people who own influencing city governments much much more than renters (who have no choice but to move out of expensive locales).

> We have higher expectations around the amount of space than pretty much the whole rest of the world.

Many of these expectations helped lead us to this housing crisis. It may be time to reexamine them in the light of the life-ruining harm they encourage.

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Among my friends seeking to buy houses, the greater problem is the ability of large companies to buy up whatever is on the market, which they then immediately turn into a rental. It’s nearly impossible to compete with a company who will pay $50k over asking price, in cash, for the house you’re trying to get. Comparatively, immigrants don’t have the purchasing power to compete, so saying they’re the problem is a weird…

>Among my friends seeking to buy houses, the greater problem is the ability of large companies to buy up whatever is on the market, which they then immediately turn into a rental. It’s nearly impossible to compete with a company who will pay $50k over asking price, in cash, for the house you’re trying to get. Comparatively, immigrants don’t have the purchasing power to compete, so saying they’re the problem is a weir…

These companies hardly exist, "evil corporations" is just super memeable and denizens of the internet will accept it as the answer to anything bad.

In reality, the economy has been booming for the "haves" and those people are the ones bidding up homes and pay $50k over asking with a 6.5% mortgage. Corporations don't care much for home rentals when treasuries are paying 5% with zero overhead and zero risk.

Sucks to be poor and sad to be poor and still eating the "evil corporations" delusion.

Re: The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression

#610

Some good commentary in this thread, however one topic thats never raised in the topic of affordable housing is fast cheap public transit. I could never imagine being able to buy a house in London. but the train network makes it possible to live in a more affordable neighbourhood and commute as needed. In the US we seem to think that cities can continue to have affordable housing in the most desireable areas. this is…

Available transit needs to include safe transit. The current bus and light rail situation has turned off swaths of the working class to support the dredges of the drug-addict class by their lack of fare-enforcement and other low-end enabling schemes that sound great on paper, but lead to complicated downstream chilling effects on the entire region.

Public transit is much safer than driving in your car. Someone skipping fare does not compare to even a light fender bender.
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