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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#601

Post by godelski »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #556
godelski wrote: post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. Countries that have actively threatened Japan with nuclear bombs: China, Russia, North Korea, and the US (which literally dropped a bomb but have yet to make threats since).

Okay? Put some dates on those, because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats.

> because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats.

Well that was a sarcastic joke at the end. The US has not made any threats to Japan since after the bombing. The other countries listed are a different story though.

Russia: I think you have forgotten that the Kuril Islands are still contested territory between Japan and Russia. Russia's same policy is there that they will retaliate if their territories are "attacked." The exact same line with Ukraine. Putin has suggested he would take out Japan and (South) Korea quickly as they are the US's main launching points of an attack. Getting them out of the war quickly gives Russia a serious advantage and the US a serious disadvantage. This is ongoing and has been in discussion since the Cold War. Policies have not shifted on this. Russia has actively been violating international nuclear armament treaties and this has been big news since 2014. So, current.

China: Has been much more explicit and aggressive, stating that they will nuke Japan until they unconditionally surrender if they even send a single troop to defend Taiwan[1]. This video is 2021. They have also made similar threats to Australia after a deal with the US for nuclear powered subs (which would not have nuclear weapons) saying that any nuclear nation is not immune from nuclear attack.

North Korea: idk, last week when they launched their test missile directly over Japan?

I get that searching with respect to Russia might be difficult right now because everything is focused on Ukraine and Google overfits search results. But this has been in military discussion for decades. Maybe it is just saber rattling, but these are still things that have been said.

[1] https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/141497128516000563...

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#602

Post by Balgair »

adeptima wrote: post #59
bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

National security.

TSMC is one of the key players in the 21st century. As we've seen with the supply chain issues from covid and the Ukrainian conflict, high quality semiconductors are a vital resource for modern nations' security and economies.

TSMC is the only entity that can make the highest quality chips (3nm being not actually 3nm, but just called that way for marketing purposes). If Taiwan looses that unique ability, they then loose much of the backing of NATO-aligned nations.

Taiwan bet the whole nation on TSMC, and it's paid off thus far. They're not likely to let go the trump cards they hold.

More on the issues with Taiwan and China here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6sCsOdqXQw

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#603

Post by lovich »

whimsicalism wrote: post #595
lovich wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like the thread got stuck on a technicality around the cremations. I think I still agree with the initial, wider hypothesis the poster had with > It was never a question of "no war and survive" VS "die in war" - but "no war, die anyways" VS "war, possibly survive" Especially if, like most groups of humans as were tribal, the dissolution of your tribe is almost equivalent to not surviving

> Especially if, like most groups of humans as were tribal, the dissolution of your tribe is almost equivalent to not surviving I view this as dehumanizing. I would rather live and not be an American than die while being an American. I suspect most people are the same.

> I view this as dehumanizing. I would rather live and not be an American than die while being an American. I suspect most people are the same.

Humans are tribal on average. I also suspect that there are >zero groups of which you are a member, that you wouldn’t be willing to make sacrifices for.

It may be the case that you personally are an outlier, but it doesn’t change the group dynamics and we are discussing aggregate group behavior and their in this thread, not specific individuals

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#604

Post by bee_rider »

kjkjadksj wrote: post #537
bee_rider wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why wouldn't the government just start up it's own Intel-alike?

Because intel would lobby against it and snuff it

Couldn't any hypothetical governmIntel competitors also just lobby to run it into the ground? (or, perhaps one of the political parties will just want to run it into the ground in an ridiculous attempt to prove that the government can't work).

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#605

Post by johnny22 »

Negitivefrags wrote: post #309
terminalcommand wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't ASML scale up? I don't understand this. I think because they are a monopoly they can work slower, they don't need the extra profits.

Scaling up too much is a huge risk. Sure, people want a lot more EUV machines right now , but what if they don’t later? You can be left with a lot of expensive capital outlay that is going unused. The semi industry is known for being very boom/bust so it’s best not to scale up too quick lest it kill your company.

The governments of the world should be throwing money at that so there's no way the company would go bankrupt. Perhaps 5 years of revenue. This seems clearly worth subsidizing.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#606

Post by lovich »

Firmwarrior wrote: post #559
lovich wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May be cultural differences then. In the US and Canada the anti vaxxers will pejoratively refer to the vaccine as “the jab” or taking it as “getting the jab”

All sorts of people have called getting a vaccine "getting the jab" for decades. It isn't some secret code for "I don't believe that vaccines are safe"

Huh, looks like it might be my little bubble. Went looking online and definitely see media references to “the jab” late 2021 and then it appears the anti vaxx crowd I first experienced with took it on as a sarcastic mocking of how the media used a synonym instead of calling it the vaccine.

Guess I’m one of todays 10,000

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#607

Post by Balgair »

hackandthink wrote: post #214
authpor wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no it doesn't. that would be equivalent to shooting themselves in the ocean. for now, they are still under the thumb of the american navy. how else would they ship out all the consumer goods? and to whom? USA is their biggest buyer.

OK: PRC blockades Taiwan leads to american navy blockading PRC Nobody wants that.

If the US only put a partial blockade for Chinese bound ships in the Strait of Malacca, that would be enough. China is starved for oil too. They're trying to mitigate the Strait issue with the oil pipelines through Xinjiang and into the Caspian, but those are years away still.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#608

Post by steve_taylor »

Balgair wrote: post #602
adeptima wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

National security. TSMC is one of the key players in the 21st century. As we've seen with the supply chain issues from covid and the Ukrainian conflict, high quality semiconductors are a vital resource for modern nations' security and economies. TSMC is the only entity that can make the highest quality chips (3nm being not actually 3nm, but just called that way for marketing purposes). If Taiwan looses that unique ab…

That’s quite the gamble. If a competitor develops a 5nm capability, Taiwan and TSMC are both screwed. The fact that only TSMC in Taiwan has this capability makes Taiwan a jucier target for the CCP. All this talk of reunification may be little more than a power grab. Control the best semiconductors, control the world.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#609

Post by Balgair »

computerfriend wrote: post #100
roenxi wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a more simple explanation - if China wants a boat to travel from anywhere to Guangzhou, Tianjin or Shanghai then at the moment the boat has to pass close by an island that is a US ally. If China controlled Taiwan, that would no longer be true and they'd have easy access to the Pacific. For the last 300? 400? years the dominant global superpower has been a naval power. You don't need to be a Leninist or a "tr…

China already has easy access outside of the territorial waters of its neighbours. Taiwan's territorial waters don't really prevent it from operating. Less so than Japan, Vietnam and Philipines.

The lack of access to the world's oceans isn't the only issue. It's the access without being close to submarine listening stations.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#610

Post by Balgair »

buscoquadnary wrote: post #113
computerfriend wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also highly recommend The Prince . But I don't buy this argument. TSMC is a factor, sure. In that it likely increases the cost of war. The PRC shouldn't expect that by invading, they'll win TSMC (the company, the tech, the talent, the market share).

Quoted post unavailable.

They put all the fabs right near the best landing beaches too. If China wants Taiwan, they aren't going to get TSMC.
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