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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#601

Post by heavyset_go »

drexlspivey wrote: post #544
snarf21 wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't some final strain so let's all hurry up and get it. The more people that get any variant increases the likelihood of new variants and we don't get to pick what they do. We need to stop thinking about this as a pandemic that will end and start thinking about it as an endemic disease that is never going away. Soon, you'll be getting your annual covid shot along with your flu shot. It is going to continue to…

It is most likely pretty close to the final strain, viral mutations are optimizing for high transmission and low severity (to not kill the host and maximize infections) and this one is pretty close to the global maximum.

> viral mutations are optimizing for high transmission and low severity (to not kill the host and maximize infections

The selection pressure that sometimes selects for weaker strains is large amounts of viral hosts dying, causing the stronger strains to literally die out in the corpses they create.

People aren't dying in droves because of COVID. There is little evolutionary pressure to select for weaker variants of the virus.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#602

Post by drited »

aqme28 wrote: post #597
drited wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>marginally lower case fatality rate The op didn't state marginally could you please share where you are getting this from? The first publicly confirmed death globally from Omicron was reported just yesterday (source: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-says-omicron-spread... Given that the South African study discussed in this Washington Post article included 78k people, none of whom died if the above Reuters a…

It's growing exponentially and deaths are a lagging indicator. The true denominator is far from 78k people.

I know deaths lag cases. I mentioned just the cases in the south African study because those are the earliest cases we have. None of the 78,000 cases up to 7th Dec in South Africa resulted in a reported death up to 13th Dec.

This can be deduced from yesterday's Reuters article I linked which said the first reported death globally was in the UK (not South Africa) and from the fact that the study looked at 78,000 cases of Omicron from 15 November 2021 to 7 December 2021 (source: https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/news-room). At the time the Reuters article was published we were 6 days after even the most recently reported of those South African cases.

I wasn't trying to present the global denominator - that is far higher than 78,000 since it includes all countries, not just the 78k reported in the South African country.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#603

Post by jcadam »

stickfigure wrote: post #358
chimprich wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. There is absolutely no evidence for this variant being less pathogenic. It is quite likely that the milder outcomes observed with this variant so far are because of immunity generated by vaccines and prior infections. The idea that this will make vaccines less essential is a fanta…

It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal reservoir. Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly. It will happen eventually, and then covid will be just another common cold.

> selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly

If left alone, yes. We are not leaving it alone.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#604

Post by [deleted] »

anonfornoreason wrote: post #429
akamaka wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Africa’s excess deaths amount to 1 out of every 200 people. The most vulnerable have already been removed from the sample set. I’m going to wait for severity data from where I live, because that’s what matters.

every year more vulnerable people are added to that set as population ages, gets fatter, has more advanced coronary or metabolic disease, etc. not trying to contradict here I think it will be less each year. maybe governments will even start telling people their dirt and exercise choices are exacerbating this disease!

[deleted]

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#605

Post by heavyset_go »

johnchristopher wrote: post #476
roody15 wrote: post #175

This is honesty good news. The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide. Way too many comments and articles that try and keep the fear train running full steam. A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. No. Covid reeinfects. There's only a short-lived immunity. Covid is not a cold. If it doesn't get your the first or the second or the third time it will get you the 15th time. Long term damage is not getting enough attention. In decades maybe we get a mild covid. > Way too many co…

> In decades maybe we get a mild covid.

That's incredibly quick in evolutionary terms. If COVID becomes milder, it may take many human lifetimes for that to occur. In the mean time, it can mutate into something stronger.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#606

Post by spookthesunset »

sjg007 wrote: post #586
spookthesunset wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you imagine a company where lawyers had complete control over product development and the entire company designed their goods around whatever the lawyers said? Every square inch of the product would be covered in legal disclaimers, everything would have foam padding on the corners, and the box it came in would have you sign a 40 page document before you could even open it. I have no clue how the actual product…

If COVID is here to stay, we still need mitigation strategies and for people to follow them.

what would those mitigation strategies be?

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#607

Post by rolph »

stnmtn wrote: post #535
bagacrap wrote: post #534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there really can't be an "exponential" increase in the number of cases, whatever that means, given that there's a hard upper bound which is the number of hosts.

While technically correct, you and I both know what they meant by exponential. Sure, there's a limit, but if we're looking at function that is exponential until it reaches an inflection point where there's simply less hosts to infect than possible...

a rate of change in the rate of change, to wit a second order derivative

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#608

Post by [deleted] »

throwawaymsft wrote: post #368
calebm wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Maybe COVID has changed to be more cooperative with humanity (it's a good strategy for parasites to not kill their hosts).

People think the virus has a strategy, like it’s playing a sport and deciding an outcome. Tell the Black Plague its strategy of killing 30% of is suboptimal. Or to the species driven to extinction by a disease. “Inanimate object, that was suboptimal to your existence!”

[deleted]

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#609

Post by heavyset_go »

stickfigure wrote: post #358
chimprich wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. There is absolutely no evidence for this variant being less pathogenic. It is quite likely that the milder outcomes observed with this variant so far are because of immunity generated by vaccines and prior infections. The idea that this will make vaccines less essential is a fanta…

It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal reservoir. Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly. It will happen eventually, and then covid will be just another common cold.

> Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly

The selection pressure that sometimes selects for weaker viral variants is stronger viral variants killing their hosts in droves, thus preventing the stronger variants from passing on their genetics to new hosts.

That selection pressure doesn't exist, because people are not dropping like flies due to COVID. The virus is free to mutate into something stronger because there is little pressure to stop it.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#610

Post by spankalee »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #584
oceanplexian wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. The story has always been that it reduces symptoms and hospitalization, so there are plenty of opportunities for the disease to get “tickets” in the evolution lottery. Between that, the animal reservoirs (COVID can spread to different species), and the millions of people in undeveloped countries who will never get a vax, COVID was guaranteed…

> The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. In the USA? Yes, they were. There was no mention of a future need for boosters. There was a simple promise of safety, and for things to return to normal.

No, they were promoted as drastically reducing the chance of severe symptoms and hospitalizations.
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