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Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

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Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#601
post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe it or not, western countries have reduced carbon emissions over the last ~15 years, in both absolute and per capita terms (despite a growing population). The only countries that are growing their carbon emissions are developing countries; mainly China, India and Russia. China is particularly troubling since they make up 28% of all emissions (US is 15%) and they have both a growing population and growing emiss…

> The only countries that are growing their carbon emissions are developing countries; mainly China, India and Russia Developed nations have polluted the planet for decades, with highest rates of energy consumption per capita. They have failed to build systems and processess that enables sustainable living. They have lived their excess and now lecture the world that their "90% of emissions are from consumption" One g…

When we're all under water and biodiversity drops like in the Permian extinction, will it matter if "they did it first"/"we were right - they were wrong"?

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#602

The notion that humanity would go extinct from any of this is absolutely unrealistic. What we are talking about is at worst massive economic damage and loss of life, similar to a very serious war. Which is horrible, but really not the threat it is made out to be. Moreover, since these changes happen relatively slowly (compared to bombs and such) much of the loss of life can be mitigated. So we are talking economic da…

Its not that humanity will go extinct with 1.5 degree rise in average temperature. However this will likely directly kill 10s/100s of millions of people and destroy ecosystems and weather patterns that humans depend on, which in turn can create a lot of political instability which could increase the chances of a extinction threatening event (like nuclear war for example). The other path to extinction is the world where we open up some feedback loops which are currently unaware of , runaway heating is an example of that, where each degree of heating causes the rate of heating to rise.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#603
post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe it or not, western countries have reduced carbon emissions over the last ~15 years, in both absolute and per capita terms (despite a growing population). The only countries that are growing their carbon emissions are developing countries; mainly China, India and Russia. China is particularly troubling since they make up 28% of all emissions (US is 15%) and they have both a growing population and growing emiss…

The West lowered their CO2 production by moving all manufacturing to China, so this isn't too surprising. Also, China, like most of the world except for Afrika, has a shrinking population ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_rate ). China needs to start building nuclear power plants and replace all those coal plants.

This talking point is simply not true: https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1424038327905230850

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#604
As someone else pointed out, this is a huge collective action problem that we don't seem to have the institutions and social structures to solve this. Some people are willing to make sacrifices to solve this but many are not. We don't have means or willingness to force the non-cooperating people to cooperate. I'm surprised we haven't seen more terrorism targeted at carbon emitters. But then I see that recently a huge pipeline and a beef processing plant got hacked. That got blamed on Chinese or Russian hackers. It makes me wonder though, if those had been hacks by climate activists would the government tell us? The public discussion sparked by that would be quite different and might lead to an increase in that type of activity. This also is straight up a plot line from The Ministry for the Future which.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#605

The notion that humanity would go extinct from any of this is absolutely unrealistic. What we are talking about is at worst massive economic damage and loss of life, similar to a very serious war. Which is horrible, but really not the threat it is made out to be. Moreover, since these changes happen relatively slowly (compared to bombs and such) much of the loss of life can be mitigated. So we are talking economic da…

>The notion that humanity would go extinct from any of this is absolutely unrealistic Why not? With the current societal focus on materialism and luxury, perpetuation of greed and glorification of power, climate need not do much. Wipe out some fraction of the population is all it needs to do. The rest will be done by us. The last two people will fire bombs at each other and kill each other for sure.

> The last two people will fire bombs at each other and kill each other for sure.

We've had nuclear bombs for 70 years now and yet we're still alive. This doesn't seem to support this stance. I also don't see everyone on earth rolling over the second it gets a little hotter. Sure some people will but the vast majority will want to survive

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s just so hard to know what actions have what impact on CO2 production Not really. For some reason the actually quite simple problem is needlessly complicated in the discussions. Stop digging up ANY carbon from below ground where it was safely buried. Any carbon above ground is part of the cycle that includes atmospheric CO2. You need huge effort to change how much of it is in CO2 form at any time while still ha…

I really like your post! It's not rocket science. Too many interest groups are convoluting the issue. But, I think to clearest, easiest way is to just ban "coal, gas, oil". Then let the lack of it "tickle" through the economy. Not by tomorrow, mind you, have it gradually reduce. Where there are problems, help with tax money. We've done it before, with asbestos, lead in gas, ..

The error with lead was the opposite one. It was a moral panic that's lead to the current health crisis, both mental and physical. People need heavy metals, they are essential.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#607
post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe it or not, western countries have reduced carbon emissions over the last ~15 years, in both absolute and per capita terms (despite a growing population). The only countries that are growing their carbon emissions are developing countries; mainly China, India and Russia. China is particularly troubling since they make up 28% of all emissions (US is 15%) and they have both a growing population and growing emiss…

Chinese rise in emissions is because of Western manufacturing. Russian rise in emissions is because of Western European need for heating. If we stop outsourcing manufacturing to China and stop buying gas from Russia their emissions will also fall. But India and Africa are significantly poorer than China and Russia. India and Africa should be allowed to emit CO2 for the next two decades or they will remain poor foreve…

Would having to curb CO2 emissions stunt Indian / African economic development more than the effects of climate change will? Those two areas are particularly vulnerable to the worst of the impacts as I understand it (extreme heat, food supply disruption, etc.)

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#608
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's stabilising. Look at the curve. Increasing wealth in Africa and Asia correlates strongly to a drop in birthrate. The problem isn't unconstrained population growth, it's the energy budget inherent in the population we have already, as standards of living rise worldwide. 30y and we didn't double. We probably won't hit 10b

10b would be just over 25% more people - therefore even if we manage to reduce per-capita environmental impact by 25% (which is evidently no mean feat), we'd still just be treading water.

Duh, can't do maths - 25% population increase requires 20% impact decrease to stay still. Still seems unlikely to me across a 30 year timeline.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#609
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. A 200% value-added tax on fossil fuels that rises by 10% every year would provide the capital. EDIT: To clarify, this is not a suggestion to raise capital from the tax as much as it's to raise capital from the use of fossil fuels. It's a suggestion for an increasingly punitive financial cost to force behavioural changes.

That's not going to work. A lot of people (and industries) rely on cars to do their jobs. It's a lot of low-income households who rely most on cars because they live in remote areas due to housing costs and have to commute to city centers to find work. Such a tax would cause a huge backlash in large parts of the population in any country and the government who enacts it would be quickly disbanded. We need subsidies t…

You are right, a carbon tax without a fair and progressive redistribution is doomed to fail. This is partially why we had the "yellow vest" mouvement in France

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#610

What's 'code red' mean? Did we pass amber? Is purple the next stage? I love our obsession with coloring our alarms. I wanna see indigo on there next if you're listening designer.

Reminds me of the homeland security threat level chart. When its orange, we're serious. When it's red, we're super for real serious
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