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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#601

Post by Izkata »

kaesar14 wrote: post #487
Izkata wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, he already went through it in business and came mentally prepared for the pressure.

You don’t think the men who have been President haven’t been through stressful situations before their time in office? Bush, Governor of Texas, Clinton, Governor of Arkansas, Bush, World War 2 Veteran and Director of the CIA, Reagan, Governor of California, Carter, Governor of Georgia. Despite those experiences, all to a T came out of office looking worse for wear.

I'm not talking about stress in general, but specific stressful situations. International relations, for example.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#602

Post by learc83 »

asdf21 wrote: post #575
tempguy9999 wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question: how do these work, and can you actually make money off. or can you only limit cash losses with them?

You have multiple businesses, and sell assets between them... then bankrupt the lame ones. Example: Business 1 buys a $1M piece of equipment with 30% down and 70% credit. After a couple years, and knowing that Business 1 is not that profitable anyway, the machine is sold to Business 2 for $150k, even though it's probably worth $700k still. Business 2 makes $550k profit on the books. Business 1 files bankruptcy. The c…

Can't the bankruptcy trustees come after the owner when they see that the machine was sold far below value? They do something similar in personal bankruptcy.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#603

Post by imtringued »

ethbro wrote: post #565
pdonis wrote: post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Inflation is a consequence of money spent foolishly No, it's a consequence of printing money as soon as the newly printed money gets out into the economy. The only reason the previous rounds of QE in the last decade didn't cause inflation was that practically all of it stayed in the banks' accounts at the Fed and never got loaned out, so it never actually got into the economy. > The same arguments were made against…

Inflation is size of economy / money supply. Printing more money doesn't inexorably produce inflation, for a lot of reasons. If the money printed is used unwisely, in ways that do not grow the economy, then it certainly does.

That's a very roundabout way of saying if you don't spend money it won't enter the economy.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#604

Post by mrep »

gzu wrote: post #132
mrep wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies exploit this relationship now by destroying their balance sheets and using buybacks to boost their relative market caps vs other companies. Buying back shares doesn't increase your market cap, it increases the value of each individual stock since they now own a larger percentage share of future earnings. > to capture more passive investment money flow. It has no real effect because index funds will actual…

In practice it does increase market cap because constantly buying back shares increases PE multiple growth which then makes the stock then sell at a higher valuations since they are showing (artificial) growth. The long term stability of those buybacks isn’t taken into account with valuation models. Every new dollar put into index funds gets invested proportionally in each company to the market cap of SP 500. Microso…

> The long term stability of those buybacks isn’t taken into account with valuation models.

Really? The money that can be made in finance results in billions of dollars of wages and you think the PHDs they can hire with that money cannot properly evaluate the effect of stock buybacks in their valuation models?

> Every new dollar put into index funds gets invested proportionally in each company to the market cap of SP 500. Microsoft gets bid nearly 4.5c on every dollar. The top 10 stocks combined get 25c on every dollar.

What's your point?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#605

Post by ianai »

aalleavitch wrote: post #557
eclipxe wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Memes and shitposts?

Memes and shitposts were funny right up until they started motivating mass murders.

Good connection. The world wars can also be perceived as points where humanity invented new, more “wholesale” ways of murdering ourselves. Their end is also punctuated with the creating of the atomic bomb. We’ve just started to uncover the ways to use the internet as a weapon and haven’t invented any real countervailing forces to it.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#606

Post by magduf »

filoleg wrote: post #595
magduf wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't think they are stupid. But they are gullible and have been brainwashed. Isn't that just another way of saying someone is stupid? I'd say a serious lack of critical thinking skills qualifies as "stupidity".

My personal take on this: if a person claims to be too smart to be brainwashed themselves, then they are probably not as smart as they think they are. Kinda reminds me of the people who say that they aren't susceptible to advertisement.

Everyone is susceptible to brainwashing. It's also called "indoctrination". Smarter people (or people with better critical thinking skills) are less susceptible. But no one is immune; if people hear the same thing over and over again, eventually it'll influence them.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#607

Post by jjwhitaker »

vkou wrote: post #504
jjwhitaker wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more like: "It only rains on my birthday. It's raining today - it must be my birthday." At least I'm not aware of any inversions of the 10-2 bond yield curve in the last 50 years that was not followed by a recession, however minor.

There have been inversions in the X - Y bond yield curve in the last 50 years that were sometimes followed, and sometimes not followed by recessions. You didn't come to the number 10 - 2 independently. It was cherry-picked to fit the narrative.

The other ratios have inverted over the last 6 months, I think as early as the 5-1 ratio in January. The 10-2 is simply the more extreme indicator and the bigger signal that a recession will probably happen in the coming 12-24 months. I used 10-2 both as it is in the news this week and is the critical indicator that I studied in college. In January I was referencing the 5-1 as an early indicator that without correction would lead to the 10-2 inverting as well.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#608

Post by magduf »

opwieurposiu wrote: post #412
cure wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His base really can't put 2 and 2 together. You seem to think it's obvious that tariffs will cause prices to rise, but you seriously underestimate just how stupid these people are. I don't think they are stupid. But they are gullible and have been brainwashed. Their world view has been warped into something that just is not based in reality anymore ("invasions", "climate change doesn't exist", etc). This is not unl…

All the money in the world will not help you if you have no secure homeland for your children and grandchildren. You can not have security when the means of production of a state is located outside of the control the citizens of that state. Tariffs are a small step towards re-establishing local control over the means of production.

No country in the world is self-sufficient; that's why we invented something called "trade" thousands of years ago. There's plenty of countries (small ones) that make almost nothing, and rely on a few key industries to hold up the economy, while getting the rest through trade.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#609

Post by leereeves »

learc83 wrote: post #600
leereeves wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money laundering? Creating a corporation or LLC for each property is standard practice in the real estate business. > ... usually, every investment property should be owned by a separate limited liability company that owns only one property and that is not engaged in any other business activity. The reason is simple: to maximize asset protection. https://www.keytlaw.com/azllclaw/asset-protection/how-many-l... And you…

>Creating a corporation or LLC for each property is standard practice in the real estate business. So which is it? He started 500 businesses, or he has a few businesses that are made up of multiple properties. I have friends with a few dozen rental properties, all in separate LLCs. I wouldn't say they "started 50 businesses".

You can't have it both ways; those 6 bankruptcies are just properties too.

So with your wording you should say Trump owned 500 properties and 6 of them lost money. And like any real estate investor, when the properties lost money, Trump gave those 6 properties to the creditors.

But I think my wording is more accurate. Your friend's rental properties may not be individual businesses, but Trump Tower or the Taj Mahal are.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#610

Post by duderific »

roymurdock wrote: post #302
harimau777 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that sane, cunning, or democratically elected are the same as intelligent.

You're splitting hairs and I'm not sure what your point is. He's sane/rational. He has motives for most of his actions from what I've observerd. I'm asking what the motive is behind his initiation and escalation of the trade war with China. I'm not arguing that it's an intelligent thing to do, or that Trump is intelligent. I'm asking what his motive is. If he was irrational I would concede that perhaps there is no mo…

I think it is a power play. He likes to feel powerful, and he thinks of it as a negotiating tactic. He is a bully and likes to try and push people around. I honestly don't think he much considers the ramifications going forward on a global scale. It is more of a personal slight: "The Chinese are really screwing us over, I'll show them!"
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