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The Electric Car

blog.geoffralston.com

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Re: The Electric Car

#61

Post by rorykoehler »

swombat wrote: post #2

Interesting article, though it forgets the elephant in the room: self-driving cars. The two will probably work hand in hand, but it is unlikely, in my opinion, that any electric cars will be charging at home very much, because most electric cars will be owned by companies, not individuals. Why own a car when you can pay a tiny percentage of a cab fare to go anywhere? When a journey that currently costs $50 costs 20 c…

I published a piece on exactly this earlier in the week. Admittedly I took an extreme position, but not an impossible one:

https://medium.com/@rorykoehler/carpocalypse-how-the-robot-c...

The major point of value I took from the OP here was that we have no idea what the landscape will look like in 10 years. It is totally open for disruption.

Re: The Electric Car

#62

Post by [deleted] »

martinald wrote: post #53

To be honest, this misses the point in urban areas (which is increasingly where everyone wants to live). There's too much congestion for cars to work in urban areas, at least for commuting. It doesn't matter whether they are autonomous, electric, petrol, hydrogen or whatever. The capacity of a multi-lane freeway vs a heavy rail commuter line or metro is so small, even with carpooling. Unless suddenly this trend rever…

[deleted]

Re: The Electric Car

#63

Post by mod »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #15
danhak wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They've driven more than a million miles fully autonomously Zero of those miles were at a speeds > 25 mph. And the cars have averaged > 1 accident per 100,000 miles.

Audi's TTS autonomous vehicle sped up Pike's Peak successfully 5 years ago : http://www.wired.com/2010/11/audis-robotic-car-climbs-pikes-... "The car made five runs during a week of testing, reaching the 14,100-foot summit in 27 minutes. The very fastest drivers — in cars putting down more than 900 horsepower — do it in 10 minutes and change, so clearly the car isn’t terribly fast. But the point isn’t the speed, it’s…

None of them while a car was moving in autonomous mode*

As I recall there were collisions where the autonomous car was sitting still. Others while in manual mode. Zero the fault of autonomous drivers, so far.

Re: The Electric Car

#64

Post by beambot »

hackuser wrote: post #20

The real story my be that car sales may decline, gas or electric: * People drive less; I saw a study showing that significantly fewer millenials are licensed to drive than their predecessors. * More people live in cities, where the cost of cars is higher (insurance and parking) and the demand for them is less due to the proximity of destinations and the availability of alternatives (public transport, taxis, ride-shar…

Another driver for fewer car sales: More ride-sharing and taxi (Uber) services obviating the need to purchase individual vehicles which see sub-5% utilization.

This is good for the environment too.... IIRC, the embodied cost to fabricate a vehicle represents something like 30% of its net carbon cost. This is pretty significant when you consider the very low utilization rate for a capital asset.

Re: The Electric Car

#65

Post by rhino369 »

rosser wrote: post #38
lvs wrote: post #21

I can't imagine what the iPhone has to do with an electric car. The post just refers to a software interface (which all cars now have), a network conncetion, and automatic updates. None of these relies on the powertrain of the car.

TFA is drawing a parallel between the way smartphones, as heralded by the iPhone, transformed the mobile phone market, and the way electric cars, as heralded by the Model S, will do to the car market. That's what the one has to do with the other.

But it's a really poor parallel. People wanted a smartphone because it was a total game changer. Electric cars are not.

I'm an electrical engineer and I only sort of give a shit what kind of powertrain by car has. My mom? Doesn't know or care how her car works. My dad? Probably against electrical out of old man-back in my dad behavior.

Cost will be the big change. Once an electric car is cheaper than gas, the public will switch. But that is not why people switched to smartphones.

Also part of the reason for the smartphone revolution is the market psychology behind carriers subsidizing very expensive phones. People think their iPhone 6 costs 200 bucks.

Finally, the short upgrade cycle for phones is totally different than cars which last for like 15 years on average.

Re: The Electric Car

#66

Post by elorant »

If electric cars are going to become mainstream we certainly need something far more affordable than Model S. With the money it costs I could buy a Mercedes S-Class which is unparalleled in terms of quality and ride comfort. Furthermore in regions like Europe you can run in all short of inconsistencies with incompatible sockets/recharge stations. Just the other day I was watching a video [1] of a car journalist who tried to make the trip from UK to Amsterdam in a BMW i3 Rx and it took him twice the time it would with a conventional car.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0f0_hqWdTk

Re: The Electric Car

#67

Post by toomuchtodo »

mod wrote: post #63
toomuchtodo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Audi's TTS autonomous vehicle sped up Pike's Peak successfully 5 years ago : http://www.wired.com/2010/11/audis-robotic-car-climbs-pikes-... "The car made five runs during a week of testing, reaching the 14,100-foot summit in 27 minutes. The very fastest drivers — in cars putting down more than 900 horsepower — do it in 10 minutes and change, so clearly the car isn’t terribly fast. But the point isn’t the speed, it’s…

None of them while a car was moving in autonomous mode* As I recall there were collisions where the autonomous car was sitting still. Others while in manual mode. Zero the fault of autonomous drivers, so far.

Regardless, autonomous vehicles will improve at a staggering pace due to computing power available to them, and sensors rapidly developing.

~33K [1] deaths a year from car accidents currently due to human drivers. I doubt autonomous vehicles can do worse than that.

[1] http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/accidental-injury.htm

Re: The Electric Car

#68

Post by compostor42 »

curiousjorge wrote: post #31

I think the article is overly optimistic and derives some sort of future prediction based on a simplified past performance of a totally different market. Tesla is a luxury , many of us can't afford it and if we could we would most likely opt for BMW or Benz. The reason these other car makers aren't moving yet is they are learning from Tesla. You don't want to be a first mover in this industry, you want to move so sli…

> In the short while the euphoria towards Tesla will continue but it's headed for a not so pleasant ending. Great for humanity, bad for Musk.

And I can't help but wonder if Musk is okay with that, or even planned it that way from the start?

Re: The Electric Car

#69

Post by mod »

soperj wrote: post #35
rickdale wrote: post #17

My big qualm with the electric cars that I don't read about is the 40minute-1hour charging. People complain that charging stations aren't near them, but the convenience of pulling into a gas station filling up and being ready for another 400 miles in less than 5 minutes is hard to beat. Even if the charging stations were all around, 5 versus 40-60 min is a big difference.

There's no way you fill your car in 5 minutes, and Superchargers are noted to take 30 minutes, not 40-60.

Sorry, what? I fill my car in closer to 2 minutes, not counting time that would be included in either type of refill (pulling in, paying, etc).

Re: The Electric Car

#70

Post by RedCrowbar »

callesgg wrote: post #50

A big problem is that battery's require lithium, which is quite rare(not supper rare but still rare enough for it to be a problem). My prediction is that sales if electric cars wont become exponential until we get cheaper and greener battery technology.

That lithium is rare is a common misconception. It is actually one of the more abundant elements on Earth, especially in seawater [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Terrestrial

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