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Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

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Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#61

I think the writing is on the wall for Twitter. The younger generations are increasingly flocking to snapchat, yik yak, and similar apps. I never hear of anyone using it anymore(college student here). I would have stopped facebook a while back as well if I didn't use OAuth for damn near everything

I'm a recent college student and most of the people I know still in college use twitter. It seems our anecdotes are conflicting.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#62

While I understand Twitter from a technical perspective, I have never understood why a large number of people use it. The value proposition for an average person is effectively zero. It's great for businesses and celebrities, but one-sided value propositions tend to not work out long term. We are now starting to see that inevitable result play out. You can only defy gravity for so long.

While we will never return to the pre-social-media days, perhaps the infatuation had faded. The current generation entering their teens has never really known a time without it. There's no real novelty to it. The distinction between mindless time wasting and real usefulness may be more clear.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm talking more about CNN putting tweets up on the screen and discussing the contents of the tweet. Like when a tweet about MH370 being sucked into a black hole was discussed by a panel.

Yes, and I'm saying maybe someone in their company decided that Twitter is bad, or maybe some Twitter VP ate the sandwich that person wanted to eat, or they decided Twitter is a competitive threat, or whatever. As I said, who knows.

Or maybe the novelty wore off.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#64

I think the writing is on the wall for Twitter. The younger generations are increasingly flocking to snapchat, yik yak, and similar apps. I never hear of anyone using it anymore(college student here). I would have stopped facebook a while back as well if I didn't use OAuth for damn near everything

I'm an iOS engineer, and the company I work for recently started using Twitter's analytic tool Fabric for mobile crash debugging.

Until then I had also written Twitter off, but if they can monetize Fabric and leverage some of what they've learned about big data and how (not) to scale technical infrastructure, they may be able to position themselves as a technology solutions company that also has a limited character notification system.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#66

>Twitter cut full-year revenue guidance to $2.17 billion to $2.27 billion, from the previous range of $2.3 billion to $2.35 billion. I find it astonishing that what is basically a short message broadcast service can generate billions of dollars of revenue. So I think that they have to be doing something very right. Perhaps everyone is anticipating the inevitable next hot thing a little bit too hard.

In other words, they missed earnings by 4.5% (comparing the means of the two ranges) when the original uncertainty range on their estimate was also 4.5%. Doesn't seem very exciting to me.

Indeed. This is news if you're actively day trading Twitter shares. Otherwise it's business as usual. Now it's at 2014 prices. It's had bigger swings in both directions in the recent past.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#67
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lots of user X advertising = profit valuation typically comes from: profit X magic multiplier where your magic multiplier is functionally a premium based on twitter's future profit potential they're a publicly traded company, and last I remember they report their earnings publicly to shareholders according to http://www.cnbc.com/id/102573751 their earnings were $436 million ---------------- I've noticed more and more…

Coming soon: more ads. From the article: "Under a new agreement, marketers using Google’s DoubleClick advertising service can buy Twitter’s Promoted Tweets." Twitter is in danger of pulling a Myspace. At Myspace, revenue went down, ad density was raised to compensate, usage went down, ad density was increased to compensate, then usage crashed. For a publicly held ad-based growth company, a down quarter is a disaster.…

Compensation. I know an engineer with 3 year experience who was offered 150K salary + 600K of stock grant over 4 years. Management get paid a lot more, obviously.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Related, it would be great for HN to be able to tag stories as having auto-playing audio, a paywall, modal ads, and other undesirable elements of a posted story's site.

It would be great if paywall stories weren't allowed.

I think most people here know how to get around a paywall. It is pretty easy

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#70

I think the writing is on the wall for Twitter. The younger generations are increasingly flocking to snapchat, yik yak, and similar apps. I never hear of anyone using it anymore(college student here). I would have stopped facebook a while back as well if I didn't use OAuth for damn near everything

Twitter has always skewed older.
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