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Why are interest rates so low?

brookings.edu

61–70 of 238 posts

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#61
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The monetary system hasn't been about 'me and my savings', for at least 3 decades. Reasoning about banks, capital, supply/demand, return on investment, in terms of whether consumers spend their savings or leave it sitting on a bank account, will not make you any wiser about the state of the economy or our monetary system. Current rates are low because central banks everywhere are basically flooding the world with fre…

That's definitely a good point, but even a madman with a printer counts as 'supply outweighing demand'. The principles don't really change. That's why printing all this money is going to catch up with us sooner or later.

>That's why printing all this money is going to catch up with us sooner or later.

In 2009, here on HN, people were warning that the first round of QE would lead to Weimar-style hyperinflation in fairly short order. Six years and two additional rounds of QE later, interest rates and inflation in the U.S. are still quite low.

People tend to forget that the economy has done quite well even under inflation levels that we'd now consider high; during the Reagan boom, inflation fluctuated between 3-5%. Even if all this QE led to 5% inflation for a number of years, that's not really a serious problem (and certainly not hyperinflation).

It starts to get painful when you get to 10%, 15%, 20%, but that's a fixable problem. Indeed, it was fixed at the end of the 1970s. It was painful, but it was fixed.

So, yes, it might catch up with us. But when and how badly matter a lot. If the cost of all this QE is that average inflation in the 2020s is 5%, so what? That's hardly a disaster. Or let's say inflation creeps up to about 12%, and in 2025 the Fed takes strong action to get it under control, leading to a sharp painful recession in 2025-26. Should we have a decade or two's worth of stagnation to avoid this hypothetical? I personally don't think so.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#62
post #6

Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…

We have nonnegative gains in efficiency and we have population growth. If those are not reflected in the monetary base, then the result is a trend in the direction of deflation. That presents a set of problems, challenges to very deeply established assumptions about things like government, business and personal debt. Deflation leads to instability, as people who want to work cannot - and not for a good reason, but because of monetary "evils".

Happiness is rather a dangerous standard to use - it varies widely. Material comfort is more appropriate for discussions involving economics.

Low interest rates also contribute to income inequality - if the market interest rate is 0.5% and your business produces returns of 5%, you're now a "rock star" business, and will attract "too much" investment. As there evolves winners and losers in that game, income inequality rises.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#63
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not an answer. You could just as well ask "at what point in time do you consider interest rates low enough"? 0%, -1% or -10%? There's no clear answer for either question, of course, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't discuss them.

How is it not an answer? He's saying that the "greed" described by the original commenter is the same source of innovation that's given us all of the modern amenities we enjoy today. Conversely, I would say outright dismissing the pursuit of growth is not an answer.

I would say that outright dismissing any concept is not an answer.

I do have a problem with equating greed to innovation and cultural growth. Greed, in economic terms, optimizes only for the accumulation of wealth. Many technological and cultural advances would do nothing to amass wealth and would be missing in a society focused solely on economic growth.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#64
post #53
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why the obsession of economic growth? Easy. Essentially unknowable/unpredictable future growth expectations/extrapolations were already baked into present-day voter promises, welfare obligations and many bank/insurance/pension calculations, plus current "financial asset" valuations. Now the big scramble is on to will said growth assumptions into actually happening, lest "all bets will be off", literally.

> many bank/insurance/pension calculations It will also clearly show how big banks, HFT companies are making huge profits. They are slowly pulling money out of your pension fund. Banks do not produce, they have no income from dividends, so how they earn?

>HFT companies are making huge profits

Were. Regulation and competition are chipping away at those profits. The days of obscene profits in the Wild West are done.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#65
post #37
post #6

Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…

You make a very good point. However, the obsession with economic growth itself isn't the problem - it's how economic growth is measured. As an example, if a hurricane sweeps through Florida doing billions in damage, Florida is surely worse off, but because of the rebuilding activity that follows, it will register significant growth. As you state, we need to think about what makes people happy. Economics is a great to…

I think (macro) econ is a lousy tool for measuring happiness. Micro might be. Now, some parts of the various econs - like the theory of revealed preferences* - may well be useful in measuring or talking about happiness but taken as a while, it is IMO incumbent on economists to be humble about this.

*which teaches us that what people say and what they do are two very different things.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#66
post #6

Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…

"housing prices are all time high."

This is not a good thing and I'm not sure why you seem to think it is. You talk about happiness - one way to help the "happiness quotient" is affordable housing.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#67
post #56
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reasonable levels of inflation usually goes hand in hand with economic growth. On the other hand, growing the money supply too quickly when there's no economic growth leads to a situation like Zimbabwe...

The correlation between inflation and lower growth is not as strong as one would think. See for example the graphs on pages 22-23 in http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/98-1/15-... and the number of 'generally supports', 'probably' and 'may exceed' phrases in the conclusion. But yes, 'too quickly' is not a good idea.

> The correlation between inflation and lower growth is not as strong as one would think.

Of course not. Inflation is a symptom and not a cause. If lower inflation or even deflation lead to growth, then a penny should still have value, and a dollar should be a good amount of money (we've abolished 1 cent coins altogether, and a dollar buys very little). But our economy has grown a lot since the 1950's, and inflation has happened.

Inflation is caused by many things. In Zimbabwe's case, they tried to print money to finance various things. With no underlying value, the money quickly devalued.

In the case of Canada, the US and other western nations, we've enjoyed economic growth, but because demand for goods and services has generally outpaced supply, prices have gone up. Right now where I live, an 'average' house costs $450K.

Anyhow, thanks for the link, but I've spent too much time looking at Solow equations for my liking (currently doing a degree in economics).

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#68
post #6

Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…

It is a large part of how people in the US make money. Most people have their retirements tied to the stock markets (401k, 403b, and other options are basically just a huge collection of stocks, commodities, and bonds). If growth doesn't occur, the markets don't do as well and may even fall causing a LOT of people to take a hit in retirement funds.

>If growth doesn't occur, the markets don't do as well and may even fall causing a LOT of people to take a hit in retirement funds.

It isn't just about "markets". There are actual businesses underlying those financial assets that require economic growth to expand, hire people, pay wages and provide an economic return to their owners (including shareholders).

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

economic growth, albeit imperfect, is a measure of things getting better for society. So, we should worry about worldwide economic growth, but not necessarily Swedish economic growth. Another point is, lack of growth is a leading indicator of the situation getting worse in the future, even if it is pretty good now. So, yes, economic growth is an imperfect measure, but we have few if any alternatives to economic growt…

Not so much imperfect as deceptively irrelevant. "Growth" has absolutely nothing useful to say about "things getting better for society." Things get better for society when jobs pay well, high quality education is freely accessible, talent and creativity are rewarded, cost of entry for entrepreneurship is low, and ecological support systems are stable. There's nothing even remotely difficult about measuring these fac…

Inequality seems to be mostly inversely proportional to growth.

Low interest rates are fertile soil for inequality. If I can just buy Certificates of Deposit and live off the interest, instead of having to invest directly, that seems to me to be more egalitarian than less. Low interest rates brighten the line between us ordinary people and professional investors.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#70
post #42

CPI is a horrible way to measure inflation. This is a pretty biased piece coming from the former chairman of the Fed. It takes for granted that we need centralized organizations to control the supply of money and that our only option is never-ending inflation. There are many who believe we'd be better off it we ended the Fed and the tax of inflation that devalues our money and punishes savers.

Is there an example of a successful economy that ran without a central bank?

Well, the main purpose of a central bank is to issue currency, so an economy without a central bank would need to use something else as currency (either a foreign currency, or some sort of commodity like gold or grain).
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