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IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

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Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#61
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize you're talking about 110k people losing their income? Including dependents (averaging 2.4 / wage earner) that means this would affect ~ 250K people plus those laid off so 350K people. Funny definition of a 'good thing', there is more to life than stocks.

It would be a good thing because following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial, in the absence of externalities. And jobs are not an externality. You have only calculated one side of the equation. You haven't considered how investors would have reinvested that money, and the jobs that this would have created. We can and should develop a theoretical framework that allows us to predi…

> general equilibrium theory, which predicts that profit maximizing companies maximize social utility

No, it doesn't. It can't, because "social utility" is visible to the market only through the proxy of willingness to pay. If you assume that the marginal utility of money is roughly proportional to 1/wealth (equivalently, that the utility you get from $X in wealth is roughly proportional to log(X)) then what the economy kinda maximizes is total weighted utility, where every person's utility is weighted in proportion to their wealth.

What markets give us (in theory, subject to various conditions) is a Pareto-efficient allocation of resources. And there's a theorem that says that (in theory, subject to various conditions) one can get any Pareto-efficient allocation of resources by doing a bunch of pure money-transfer operations and then letting the market do its thing.

That's nice, but it's only equivalent to saying that the market maximizes social utility if you regard those money-transfers as net-utility-neutral.

So, suppose I have $1M and you have $1K. Under the logarithmic-utility assumption above, an extra $10 for you gains you about as much extra happiness as an extra $10K for me. Consider a transaction in which I find 1000 people like you and pay you each $10 in exchange for what you consider to be $10 worth of inconvenience or pain; I have lost $10K but will be content if I get what I consider to be $10K worth of convenience or pleasure. So we have a possible transaction to which all participants are indifferent: I get a certain amount of happiness; 1000 people each get a roughly equivalent amount of unhappiness; and some money is transferred between us. If money transfers are net-utility-neutral, then by reversing those transfers we get another simpler "utility-neutral" transaction: X units of happiness for me, X units of unhappiness each for 1000 people. So long as they're 1000x poorer than me.

(Is that logarithmic-utility assumption reasonable? Not entirely. I think it's generally held that the marginal utility of wealth decreases faster than that, which would make the factor by which markets weight rich people's utility more important than poor people's utility greater. On the other hand: If we consider the wealth and utility of corporations as well as individuals, we might want to say that a corporation's utility doesn't drop off the way an individual's does. I haven't fully got my head around the right way to think about this so I'll stop at this point.)

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not predicting doom, i'm predicting that given their revenue is dropping for the past 11 quarters, and they can't they will cut the number of people to match the size of the market in most places, since they don't believe they can grow those markets. They don't need 400k people if their future is providing cloud and cloud services, and not tons and tons of services contracts in every walk of life etc Given they'v…

IBM has re-invented itself more times than you remember. They did it when mini computers came along, when the PC hit (an own goal if there ever was one), they did it when the Internet came of age (and when everybody else was still playing catch-up or even ignoring it) and I'm pretty sure they'll be able to survive the transition to the next phase of things (the cloud or whatever is fashionable). IBM is about as stabl…

In its pursuit of EPS, IBM has lost its rank and file within the USA. Morale is pretty low. When I left in 2014, "resource actions" were a weekly discussion topic. In Software Group. On a very profitable product.

Layoffs have been happening yearly from when I was an intern in 2007 until I quit IBM about a year ago. IBM stopped publishing its US employment counts for this very reason.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#63
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be a good thing because following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial, in the absence of externalities. And jobs are not an externality. You have only calculated one side of the equation. You haven't considered how investors would have reinvested that money, and the jobs that this would have created. We can and should develop a theoretical framework that allows us to predi…

> It would be a good thing because following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial, in the absence of externalities. "In the absence of externalities" is a pretty enormous qualifications -- very few real world exchanges have no externalities. > Such a framework exists and is called general equilibrium theory, which predicts that profit maximizing companies maximize social utility. It…

Externalities don't invalidate the entire theory, they just mean that adjustments have to be made in the cases where there are externalities. Hence my emphasis on the fact that a person losing their job is not an externality.

I think you read my sentence as "(following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial) in the absence of externalities" where what I meant was "following the principal of (maximizing profits (in the absence of externalities)) is what is most socially beneficial".

Classical economics with optimal "Pigovian" taxes can be thought of as a first order approximation to reality.

Also, you can produce any Pareto efficient outcome from free markets + redistribution. In practice things aren't quite so simple since redistribution has some deadweight loss (e.g. some estimate that it costs $1.30 to the economy to raise $1.00 in taxes).

EDIT: rewrote after a better understanding of the parent. EDIT 2: added more explanation.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#64
post #61
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be a good thing because following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial, in the absence of externalities. And jobs are not an externality. You have only calculated one side of the equation. You haven't considered how investors would have reinvested that money, and the jobs that this would have created. We can and should develop a theoretical framework that allows us to predi…

> general equilibrium theory, which predicts that profit maximizing companies maximize social utility No, it doesn't. It can't, because "social utility" is visible to the market only through the proxy of willingness to pay. If you assume that the marginal utility of money is roughly proportional to 1/wealth (equivalently, that the utility you get from $X in wealth is roughly proportional to log(X)) then what the econ…

There is another part of the theory which says that you get back the full set of Pareto optimal outcomes, by redistributing wealth (e.g. through taxes and welfare). Although see my comment above on the limits of wealth redistribution.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#65
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes the most interesting revelation in Cringely's rumor was that IBM made software. Let's be honest: An big IT product is about 25 programmers and 25 diverse people (incl marketers, designers, accountants) working for 3-10 years. With this you make a GitHub, a Word, an IE. IBM could be owning the planet today. But no, they're in the business of hotels, golf, and conferences.

They do make many billions profit on software every single quarter. Who cares if the market is not very sexy? If you think there's only 25 people working on Word, I think you're off by an extremely large margin.

If you planned on making a competitor of Word, would you copy all its features and throw 5,000 people at it? Of course not.

No, I don't think Word is 25 people. But a relationship of mine made an Excel in js with 3 people and sold enough copies.

Before you say I'm wrong again, no this Excel-in-js isn't isofunctional. It's just what the customer needs.

Point being: You can make great software with few people, and IBM could do it easily.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#66
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does the framework predict monotonic utility growth? Does profit maximization occur instantaneously? Does it provide any guarantees on the timeframe required to experience maximal social utility?

>Does the framework predict monotonic utility growth? I don't understand that question. I know the language of economics very well, but you're not using the terms in way that has an obvious meaning. >Does profit maximization occur instantaneously? Time is not really an issue in general equilibrium theory. E.g. the assumptions can be interpreted as saying that all companies make the decision that, at that time, given…

>I don't understand that question. I know the language of economics very well, but you're not using the terms in way that has an obvious meaning.

I'm not sure if economics uses the term.

Monotonic growth would mean that the dependent value (in this case utility), never decreases as a function of the independent value (time, in this case). In other words, does this framework guarantee that total utility will never decrease, even in the face of events such as 110,000 IBM employees being fired?

>Time is not really an issue in general equilibrium theory.

Then what use does it have in a universe where time appears to be fundamental?

>E.g. the assumptions can be interpreted as saying that all companies make the decision that, at that time, given all information available, maximizes the expected value of the companies future time discounted dividends.

Is there any reason to believe that these assumptions are well founded? Companies are likely aware of a tiny fraction of the total available information and they likely can only understand an even smaller fraction of that information. How does the framework respond to grossly misunderstood and sparse information?

>E.g. it can be restated to say that if you were to make a plan (where plan can include contingencies, e.g. if X happens, do Y) to maximize the (time discounted) total social welfare over all future time periods,

Is it possible to make such a plan? My guess is that any practical attempt would fail for many reasons, including being unable to define what 'social welfare' means as well as not being able to acquire enough computational power to compute across 'all future time periods'.

>There are indeed adjustment costs, but you can't speak about these costs in the same terms as the actual value of having a job. It's like comparing the cost of moving from one home to another, to losing one's home entirely.

I'm not sure exactly where you're talking about here. What is the actual value of having a job?

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not predicting doom, i'm predicting that given their revenue is dropping for the past 11 quarters, and they can't they will cut the number of people to match the size of the market in most places, since they don't believe they can grow those markets. They don't need 400k people if their future is providing cloud and cloud services, and not tons and tons of services contracts in every walk of life etc Given they'v…

IBM has re-invented itself more times than you remember. They did it when mini computers came along, when the PC hit (an own goal if there ever was one), they did it when the Internet came of age (and when everybody else was still playing catch-up or even ignoring it) and I'm pretty sure they'll be able to survive the transition to the next phase of things (the cloud or whatever is fashionable). IBM is about as stabl…

I can't agree more. IBM is so old it says something. But .. what's there for them in the future ? I don't know how much money they get from consultancy, or their mainframe/big-customers. Maybe the trends don't really matter in IBM's case. But when I see proliferation of tiny yet capable computing devices, self-driving cars, wearables etc etc I hope that IBM didn't leak all their hardware R&D talents out by aiming at services (subjective anecdatum: I wouldn't regret their software design / appserver for a second)

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#68
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize you're talking about 110k people losing their income? Including dependents (averaging 2.4 / wage earner) that means this would affect ~ 250K people plus those laid off so 350K people. Funny definition of a 'good thing', there is more to life than stocks.

It would be a good thing because following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial, in the absence of externalities. And jobs are not an externality. You have only calculated one side of the equation. You haven't considered how investors would have reinvested that money, and the jobs that this would have created. We can and should develop a theoretical framework that allows us to predi…

Trickle down effect doesn't work.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not predicting doom, i'm predicting that given their revenue is dropping for the past 11 quarters, and they can't they will cut the number of people to match the size of the market in most places, since they don't believe they can grow those markets. They don't need 400k people if their future is providing cloud and cloud services, and not tons and tons of services contracts in every walk of life etc Given they'v…

IBM has re-invented itself more times than you remember. They did it when mini computers came along, when the PC hit (an own goal if there ever was one), they did it when the Internet came of age (and when everybody else was still playing catch-up or even ignoring it) and I'm pretty sure they'll be able to survive the transition to the next phase of things (the cloud or whatever is fashionable). IBM is about as stabl…

Apple has failed itself more times than you remember. They did it with the Lisa, they did it when they tried to launch a PDA (Newton), and I'm pretty sure they'll crash and burn when they try to release an MP3 player or a smartphone. Apple is as volatile as they come. When it was business computing, they made the Apple III, and when it was USB, they made a mouse.

How is Apple doing these days?

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