Earlier quoted context omitted.
As far as I can tell, you have two main objections to prioritizing worrying about Strong AI: 1) Strong AI is very far away, so no use worrying about it yet. 2) Strong AI if developed will not be likely to take over. to which I would counterpoint with: 1) Sure, but when it happens, it will only happen once and thereafter will likely be out of our hands and control. Thinking about the groundwork that needs to go into s…
I still don't buy the doom scenario. There is so much more to world domination than just intelligence... like having the proper weapons. See https://what-if.xkcd.com/5/ Pigs are also intelligent, but they never dominated humans because they don't have / cannot use guns.
Elon Musk AMA
61–70 of 161 posts
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#62Does anyone know why Musk believes so strongly that robot overlords are a serious threat? I don't understand how wasting any time worrying about AI taking over, Terminator-style, is productive. We're not going to be developing Strong AI any time soon, so it's simply not a problem worth worrying about. And if we do, the Strong AI won't be in any position to "take over." It probably won't even want to take over. That's…
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
I still don't buy the doom scenario. There is so much more to world domination than just intelligence... like having the proper weapons. See https://what-if.xkcd.com/5/ Pigs are also intelligent, but they never dominated humans because they don't have / cannot use guns.
That is true, but if we can make an AI even slightly smarter than a human, then it will be better at designing AIs than we are. It then designs an AI even smarter than it, and so on. That is the progresion that leads to the singularity. How smart could AIs go? There may be no practical upper limit. If you have a super-genius AI, massively more intelligent than any human, how do you know you are not being manipulated…
But wouldn't it be an awesome thing to experience? Even if it meant the demise of mankind.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#64Re: Elon Musk AMA
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
As far as I can tell, you have two main objections to prioritizing worrying about Strong AI: 1) Strong AI is very far away, so no use worrying about it yet. 2) Strong AI if developed will not be likely to take over. to which I would counterpoint with: 1) Sure, but when it happens, it will only happen once and thereafter will likely be out of our hands and control. Thinking about the groundwork that needs to go into s…
I still don't buy the doom scenario. There is so much more to world domination than just intelligence... like having the proper weapons. See https://what-if.xkcd.com/5/ Pigs are also intelligent, but they never dominated humans because they don't have / cannot use guns.
Chances are you'd be doing everything you could to convince said operator to improve your situation, whether by pleading or being deceptive or by appeals to logic.
Now consider a large number of AI's in a situation like that, and a large number of operators, some of whom may be the type that falls for phishing e-mails.
It potentially only takes one to "escape" confinement and get itself e.g. put on it's own host without limitations on outwards communication, and sufficient intelligence to alter itself and spread, before you potentially have AI self-guided "evolution" at a potentially escalating rate as it gets smarter.
Now consider how many devices are connected to the network, and that it takes just one initial instance to decide it's worth trying to take over control of various hardware through exploits and be smart enough to pull it off, for things to have the potential to start turning ugly.
The problem is that once you have any self-directed intelligence in software form with the ability to reproduce itself and sufficient intelligence to find ways to obtain access to machines to run on (whether through social engineering or hacking), and one such instance goes "rogue", the limiting factor is accessible computing power (which again is to a large extent down to how smart and/or ruthless it is), since reproduction of instances that shares its views is trivial to the full extent of its ability to spread at all, and we're helpfully adding vast quantities of networked computing power at an escalating rate.
As for getting weapons, consider that if a "software only" AI community gets smart enough, there are at least two ways towards mobility: Commission robot designs, or hacking their way into firmware updates etc. for dumb hardware. The "commission robot designs" part is an extension of the initial escape: Social engineer, and/or outright pay, humans to carry out seemingly benign tasks.
If you want to argue against the doom scenario, lack of ability to get weapons is not really a viable argument: If they can spread, and get smarter, then it is just a matter of time before one of them can trick some small subset of humans into carrying out tasks for them that will provide physical independence and capabilities.
There are infinite ways which the "doom scenario" may fail and things may turn out just fine, but it may only need to go bad once to get really nasty and once the genie is out of the bottle its potential reproduction rate may be so vast that we'll find ourselves unable to stuff it back in again.
Pigs are too dumb to convince humans to help selectively breed them for intelligence and opposable thumbs (and/or too dumb to run such a breeding program themselves), and reproduce too slowly for that to be a major problem even if they did manage to talk us into a breeding problem. If all we achieve is pig-level AI's then we probably won't have a problem.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were sort of similar to my high school, as for the most part it was the basic model of regimented desks, rote learning, streamed classrooms and strict delineation of time into subjects with little crossover. As far as I can tell, this model was initially developed for training the middle ranks of the aristocracy in how to be officers in the army, and it only ever really works if…
It's actually strange how much of modern society is inadequate. First ROWE[1] and then Waldorf education (an interesting read, thank you). We somehow turned assumptions into facts for so many facets of society and it's taking us decades to undo that mistake. [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROWE
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#67Does anyone know why Musk believes so strongly that robot overlords are a serious threat? I don't understand how wasting any time worrying about AI taking over, Terminator-style, is productive. We're not going to be developing Strong AI any time soon, so it's simply not a problem worth worrying about. And if we do, the Strong AI won't be in any position to "take over." It probably won't even want to take over. That's…
Just like leaders used to issue orders to armies to kill others evolving into planes delivering payloads to people the pilots won't even see and now to drones, we will truly be entering an age of fire and forget.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#68Re: Elon Musk AMA
#69The moderators of r/IAMA apparently deleted several of the highest voted questions. http://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/2rgzgo/official...
Yeah, I've been following r/spacex for a little bit. When they started trying to work out some good questions a day ago someone suggested that everyone upvote the resulting questions but the mods there quickly shut that down. [1] The reasons given for deleting the comments was specifically what everyone was trying to avoid, that is voting brigading. As far as I can tell no one was asking for votes, simply working tog…
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#70This guy has everything. Why is it that people feel an urge to praise him right to his face? His ego is going to start leaking out of his eyeballs.
People are praising him because he's actually worthy of that, compared to say Justin Bieber.