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What is going to happen in 2015

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Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#61

Post by gaius »

ghaff wrote: post #54
scholia wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between doing it out of self-interest (Kodak, Apple) and providing a user service. It would be perfectly possible to provide automatic backups of photos via the user's choice of cloud (Dropbox, OneDrive etc) with the cloud service copying them to the user's chosen personal storage (PC, NAS, whatever). That would work except for the people who don't and/or won't have any personal storage. However,…

>However, if people won't look after their own data, I'm unlikely to be too sad when they lose it. I'm going to disagree with you on that. This piece that John Gruber wrote after the celebrity iCloud account hack is spot on IMO: http://daringfireball.net/2014/09/security_tradeoffs "Over the years I’ve received numerous emails from past and former Genius Bar support staff, telling similar stories of heartbreak. Custom…

I like a deal where you pay a fee and get a service. The "free" stuff can vanish on a whim.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#62

Post by lifeisstillgood »

The oculus rift purchase was listed as a major factor in football predicted revenues in the next few years in an impressive book I read over Xmas

I was knocked sideways by a book this Xmas - "The secret footballers guide to the modern game". It's a really good read especially for those of us who thought / think brains and insight vanish at the boundary of real life and sports. It's written by a top class footballer with current links to top flight commercial and sporting people.

And he mentions Facebooks acquisition of Oculous Rift. It's part of how the current commercials are tipping in favour of clubs and how leagues will stop dancing to the needs of TV schedules

Expect one club in 2015 to do a Louis CK - put out a self published "view from the pitch" via oculus rift and make more money directly than they would from traditional TV rights. Then everyone else will follow once contracts expire.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#63

Post by proveanegative »

julianpye wrote: post #21

Why Xiaomi uses its own Android flavour for the Chinese market is clear. But I don't believe they will push their own Android flavour to the US and EU markets, but rather use Playstore-enabled versions. Their first goal is to compete against Samsung in handset price. And Samsung has shown that it is very hard for an Asian manufacturer to introduce their own OS flavours and apps into a Western market.

Speaking of Samsung, what ever happened to Tizen?

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#64

Post by unsigner »

julianpye wrote: post #21

Why Xiaomi uses its own Android flavour for the Chinese market is clear. But I don't believe they will push their own Android flavour to the US and EU markets, but rather use Playstore-enabled versions. Their first goal is to compete against Samsung in handset price. And Samsung has shown that it is very hard for an Asian manufacturer to introduce their own OS flavours and apps into a Western market.

They can't make Playstore-enabled versions; Google doesn't allow you to make both Google- and non-Google Android devices. It's either all Google or no Google.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#65

Post by arihant »

Xiaomi's MIUI is not much different from other OEMs offering their own layer of UI over Android. It is in no way a third OS. I doubt here if Fred ever used a Xiaomi phone. If not, it is weird at best that a comment about it's future is second on his list.

Moreover, Xiaomi's international versions come with Google Play services and all Google apps installed, just like any other phone. You do not get Xiaomi's app store (similar to Kindle store) in international versions. You get Google Play store.

It is really just another Android phone, from an OS standpoint. They have fixed a lot of things bad with Android, like permissions control and integratedness. But that doesn't mean that it is a different OS.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#66

Post by arihant »

unsigner wrote: post #64
julianpye wrote: post #21

Why Xiaomi uses its own Android flavour for the Chinese market is clear. But I don't believe they will push their own Android flavour to the US and EU markets, but rather use Playstore-enabled versions. Their first goal is to compete against Samsung in handset price. And Samsung has shown that it is very hard for an Asian manufacturer to introduce their own OS flavours and apps into a Western market.

They can't make Playstore-enabled versions; Google doesn't allow you to make both Google- and non-Google Android devices. It's either all Google or no Google.

Their international versions outside China come with Play store. In fact, there is no way to get their own store outside China.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#67

Post by vram22 »

jacquesm wrote: post #11
api wrote: post #6

The "death of the file" is a really mixed bag. The replacement is walled gardens with no privacy, control and perhaps even ownership of your data, questionable security, and the potential that your data could vanish if one is acquires or goes under.

I don't see the death of the file, rather more of them than fewer of them. Underneath all that pretty eye candy it's still files. What I would love to see is the death of the walled garden, but then again that's probably a pipe dream. I don't care if I'll be the last guy on the planet to self host his stuff but I can't see moving my email, my files or anything else off into the cloud. Outsourcing responsibility over…

>I don't see the death of the file, rather more of them than fewer of them.

Yes, I don't either, unless some radical invention comes along - maybe memristor based PCs from HP as was in the news some time ago - google "hp memristor computer" - so that there is no separate RAM and disk, just one kind of storage.

Even then, naming of data objects will be needed, so it may still be something like a file. Plus, there is a huge existing software investment in code to handle file names and file naming conventions - it must be something on the order of magnitude of the {m|b}illions of lines of COBOL code that still exist in production, maybe an order less ...

But many of these big revolutionary announcements (e.g. memristor-based PC) turn out to be vaporware, though some of them do end up in at least some spinoff tech that is of use. Time will tell.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#68

Post by Spearchucker »

_up wrote: post #47
Spearchucker wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" ...could be implemented and managed... " That they could. Anything could. The question I don't have a convincing answer to is why would they use the Blockchain?

I think the general idea is, why should we put trust in one entity/person, when we could distribute the "trust" to all users.

I think we can agree that distributed is better for the consumer than centralized (privacy and availability), but given that the Blockchain is not the only way to achieve a distributed architecture, I'm interested in why I would use the Blockchain when I can achieve similar results with an arguably simpler solution.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#69

Post by zevyoura »

> 3/ More asian penetration into the US market will come from the messenger sector as both Line and WeChat make strong moves to gain a share of the lucrative US messenger market

I get that it's very hot right now, but is the US messenger market actually lucrative? Who is making significant money from it? My understanding is the leader in the sector as far as revenue goes is WhatsApp, which last I heard was on track for ~30M in 2014[0]; doesn't seem like enough of an incentive for a bunch of Chinese players to enter the market aggressively.

[0] http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/whatsapp-revenue/

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#70

Post by 0x5f3759df-i »

Morphling wrote: post #38
rjurney wrote: post #14

Having tried an Oculus Rift generation 3, where the tracking is PERFECT and the resolution is adequate, I think VR will do better in 2015 than he suggests.

At first Oculus seemed like a cool idea, but you can really only play "simulator" games with it, games where you sit in a vehicle otherwise it ruins the VR feel and you might as well just play on a monitor. Only other thing I've seen was some sort of sculpting thing, but I'd imagine the novelty would wear out there pretty fast. More I think about whole VR thing the less I think it will actually be a thing. I'm sure w…

That's why, in my view, the most important thing for VR to be successful isn't just getting the headset perfect. The most important thing is a better input technology. If that is hand tracking, body tracking, or something else, I don't know but I do know this is one of the most important things to make VR achieve it's potential.
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