Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory • Hacker News Board

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#61

Post by jacquesm » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:09 PM UTC

azunds wrote: post #40

snarfy wrote: post #33

Has there been any analysis on the amount of joule energy pumped out of all of the current gas stations on a daily basis? I'm worried the current electric grid is woefully insufficient for a world full of electric cars. I know their are plenty of electric lines out there running at greater than 100% of their rated capacity already.

With current pv technology this probably will not be a problem

What technology generates the current has nothing to do with whether or the GPs concerns are valid. It's all about transportation, not just generation.

Grand parent mentioned the grid, not the plants.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#62

Post by NickM » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:14 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #45

pptr1 wrote: post #28

This just shows me that Tesla is able to execute. The Gigafactory, opening up patents, rapidly growing charger network, and the eventual $35k Gen III tells me they have tons of potential in the future. Tesla is thinking big. They want everyone in the world to eventually have a electric car. I think they will own a significant share of premium market after they release the Gen III. However, they will be cars that peop…

Okay, but when does the factory first come online? The projections are for by 2020, so where do any possible cost savings for the III come from? Unless we can expect it to slip a few more years like the X did. I am hoping for a 200 mile range mid size, but I doubt Tesla will be first. I am also expecting range extender vehicles to have much more popularity initially because to be honest, I don't have time for 30 minu…

2020 is the estimate for full scale production at max capacity, not the estimate for when it will first come on line.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#63

Post by cgearhart » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:14 PM UTC

johnward wrote: post #58

cgearhart wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Napkin math supports your concerns. - The US used 134.51 billion gallons of gas in 2013.[1] - There are ~33 kWh/gal in gasoline [2] 134.51e9 gal x 33 kWh / gal = 4.44e12 kWh (4.44 trillion kWh / year) - The US used a total of 3.856 trillion kWh of electricity in 2011 [3] Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, converting all gasoline usage to electric would more than double US electricity consumptio…

If I read this right this is assuming that all current gasoline usage is converted into electrical usage. It's not like that would happen over night though, or possibly ever. Also, can PV help at night when a majority of charging should occur?

You are correct - it assumes total conversion, but the numbers don't change if you project some ramp for the transition.

A more reasonable assumption for charging is that it will take place wherever electric vehicles are parked, regardless of time of day; in that case, large parking lot installations for PV may be more sensible than individual home systems. In either case, it seems likely that increased adoption of electric vehicles will change what we consider "peak" electricity use hours, since it could consume half or more of total electricity in the US.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#64

Post by nitrogen » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:22 PM UTC

DannyBee wrote: post #29

pptr1 wrote: post #28

This just shows me that Tesla is able to execute. The Gigafactory, opening up patents, rapidly growing charger network, and the eventual $35k Gen III tells me they have tons of potential in the future. Tesla is thinking big. They want everyone in the world to eventually have a electric car. I think they will own a significant share of premium market after they release the Gen III. However, they will be cars that peop…

"opening up patents" There is still no truly legally enforceable promise, that explains in detail, exactly what Elon is giving away and what he isn't, and what the terms are. It's now 1.5 months later, and despite many people asking such a thing, nothing has been forthcoming at all. So before you give them amazing amounts of credit for this, could we please wait till they actually do something more than PR?

Do you know for sure that they haven't been negotiating the promised agreements in secret? I'd be very surprised if behemoth automakers managed to finish an agreement in less than two months, when it can take years in other cases. I'd also be surprised if the automakers wanted their names thrown around by Tesla before anything was official.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#65

Post by ansible » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:36 PM UTC

I am curious about the choice of lithium-ion vs. something like lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry.

Obviously, there is a good reason for Tesla and Panasonic not to have chosen LFP, does anyone know why? I know the energy density is lower, but are there other reasons?

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#66

Post by cowmix » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:38 PM UTC

cgearhart wrote: post #55

snarfy wrote: post #33

Has there been any analysis on the amount of joule energy pumped out of all of the current gas stations on a daily basis? I'm worried the current electric grid is woefully insufficient for a world full of electric cars. I know their are plenty of electric lines out there running at greater than 100% of their rated capacity already.

Napkin math supports your concerns. - The US used 134.51 billion gallons of gas in 2013.[1] - There are ~33 kWh/gal in gasoline [2] 134.51e9 gal x 33 kWh / gal = 4.44e12 kWh (4.44 trillion kWh / year) - The US used a total of 3.856 trillion kWh of electricity in 2011 [3] Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, converting all gasoline usage to electric would more than double US electricity consumptio…

One fact everyone seems to forget is that it takes approximately 6.5 Kwh of energy to refine one gal of gas. That is JUST refinement and not the energy to pump, store, etc.

My Volt drives around 22 -> 28 miles on that power.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#67

Post by ohitsdom » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:43 PM UTC

snarfy wrote: post #33

Has there been any analysis on the amount of joule energy pumped out of all of the current gas stations on a daily basis? I'm worried the current electric grid is woefully insufficient for a world full of electric cars. I know their are plenty of electric lines out there running at greater than 100% of their rated capacity already.

It'd be interesting to see, but it's going to be a LONG time before even 10% of the vehicles on the road are electric.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#68

Post by cc438 » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:43 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #45

pptr1 wrote: post #28

This just shows me that Tesla is able to execute. The Gigafactory, opening up patents, rapidly growing charger network, and the eventual $35k Gen III tells me they have tons of potential in the future. Tesla is thinking big. They want everyone in the world to eventually have a electric car. I think they will own a significant share of premium market after they release the Gen III. However, they will be cars that peop…

Okay, but when does the factory first come online? The projections are for by 2020, so where do any possible cost savings for the III come from? Unless we can expect it to slip a few more years like the X did. I am hoping for a 200 mile range mid size, but I doubt Tesla will be first. I am also expecting range extender vehicles to have much more popularity initially because to be honest, I don't have time for 30 minu…

I think pushing the mainstream launches back would be a wise decision. They've just begun their hard knock education in designing for longevity and reliability with the earliest examples of the Model S passing the 2 year mark.

Traditional auto manufacturers have decades of experience driving the continual refinement of their designs. These efforts have resulted a general expectation among consumers of unfailing reliability and service life measured in decades. The issues they're experiencing with drive units are troubling but acceptable for most owners who know they bought a bleeding-edge testbed for future technology. My concern is one of time, things move relatively slow in the world of automotive engineering and these issues show Tesla has a lot to learn and a lot to change once they've discovered the points of failure. That kind of time doesn't fit with their expected release schedule and owners won't accept the kinds of failure rates experienced in the Model S in a mass market car.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#69

Post by NickM » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 2:58 PM UTC

cowmix wrote: post #66

cgearhart wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Napkin math supports your concerns. - The US used 134.51 billion gallons of gas in 2013.[1] - There are ~33 kWh/gal in gasoline [2] 134.51e9 gal x 33 kWh / gal = 4.44e12 kWh (4.44 trillion kWh / year) - The US used a total of 3.856 trillion kWh of electricity in 2011 [3] Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, converting all gasoline usage to electric would more than double US electricity consumptio…

One fact everyone seems to forget is that it takes approximately 6.5 Kwh of energy to refine one gal of gas. That is JUST refinement and not the energy to pump, store, etc. My Volt drives around 22 -> 28 miles on that power.

I was going to raise the same point. And, considering that the average new car sold in the US gets 25MPG, we should be just about breaking even.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#70

Post by cgearhart » Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 3:07 PM UTC

cowmix wrote: post #66

cgearhart wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Napkin math supports your concerns. - The US used 134.51 billion gallons of gas in 2013.[1] - There are ~33 kWh/gal in gasoline [2] 134.51e9 gal x 33 kWh / gal = 4.44e12 kWh (4.44 trillion kWh / year) - The US used a total of 3.856 trillion kWh of electricity in 2011 [3] Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, converting all gasoline usage to electric would more than double US electricity consumptio…

One fact everyone seems to forget is that it takes approximately 6.5 Kwh of energy to refine one gal of gas. That is JUST refinement and not the energy to pump, store, etc. My Volt drives around 22 -> 28 miles on that power.

Under those conditions, converting all vehicles to electric would increase net electricity usage by ~20%. (Better than 100%!)

Eliminating gasoline refining would reduce the needed electricity by ~850 billion kWh / year, and the improved efficiency (ignoring charge/discharge cycle efficiency) would reduce the net energy to ~594 billion kWh / year - or 54 million average home PV installations. Quick googling shows that it will be about 10% higher for charging losses.