Let's flip this: 1. I will award $10,000 of my own money to anyone that can demonstrate, via the scientific method, that man-made global climate change IS occurring; 2. There is no entry fee; 3. You must be 18 years old or older to enter; 4. Entries do not have to be original, they only need to be first; 5. I am the final judge of all entries but will provide my comments on why any entry fails to prove the point. Obv…
My issue is that I've heard many pro global warming scientists on public radio say that even if man-made global warming doesn't exit, we should have all of these regulations and tax increases because it's good for the environment.
Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
61–70 of 106 posts
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#62Another stunning HN thread where a subset of posters have decided they know more about climate change than people dedicating their lives to the study of climate change. Since so many of you are wagering or believing let me just toss out what I believe. I believe that credible and respected climate change scientists have forgotten more than you could ever know about the subject. Climate Change deniers are a joke and a…
I look at the tech world (which I know very well) and "experts" are wrong all the time. I can't imagine it being much different in other fields.
I see people here on HN making comments about the economy. Should all of these opinions be ignored because they aren't experts?
Look at the guy that discovered bacteria: The experts of his time shunned him and he died in an insane asylum.
Scientists pretty much lose their career overnight if they have any study or research on non man-made climate change.
How can we really have an honest debate when this kind of behavior is going on?
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
OK, challenge accepted. :-) I am submitting this: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence Please provide the comments why the evidence failed to prove the point.
Correlation != Causation.* Maybe climate patterns are on a 650,001 year cycle? * I make no claims as to my stance on the issue. I am simply playing devil's advocate.
Still, it was worth of potential $10000. :-)
Anyway, I actually had a larger point. If the person giving the challenge is serious about this, they may easily prove it by giving back more helpful/reasonable comments.
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#64First, we need to establish that human activity can change the climate. For the sake of argument, let's try rainfall in the Sonora Desert. What we could do is to burrow an underground canal from the Gulf of California into Laguna Salada, and from there to the Salton Sink. This would establish shallow, inland, saltwater seas upwind of the desert, in a very sunny area, as a source of atmospheric humidity. Evaporation would be further encouraged with sea salt manufacturing beds and Salicornia bigelovii plantations.
(It would also displace thousands of people whose homes would now be underwater, but let's handwave that aside for now.)
We then erect solar-powered ionization towers downwind of the new seas, to stimulate cloud formation via charged particles of dust. Those clouds will tend to blow east over the desert and rain out. To extend the rainfall further east, we simply plant dry-tolerant plants--such as sorghum, lucern, and field pea--in the newly wet areas, to recycle moisture back into the air via transpiration.
Results of the experiment will compare weather patterns in Yuma and Mexicali before and after the megaproject.
And then, after spending (optimistically) $20 billion on the subterranean saltwater tunnels, and $100 million on the cloud seeders, we can collect our $10000. Yay!
In comparison to what it would cost to test experimentally a hypothesis that states the entirety of global human economic activity is influencing weather patterns, you will have to spend an amount capable of simulating a portion of the global human economy towards a directed experimental purpose. $10000 isn't even a round-off error.
You would be better off buying up unproductive arid land and leasing it to cattle ranchers as semi-arid grazing land afterward.
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#65 ...there is a 97% consensus that humans are causing and exacerbating climate change...
Ignoring the lack of citation, why is it necessary to resort to band-wagon style marketing? ...the only reason so many scientists agree on climate change being a thing is because all the ones who disagree are being “censored” or something...
I don't think that most of us who are skeptical about climate change believe that scientists are being censored as a matter of scientific conspiracy. It happens that the "fix" for man-made climate change also aligns well with a particular political party. Unfortunately, this results in people who are equally ignorant about the science involved supporting climate change simply because they support the economic policies that would be enacted to "reverse" climate change. ...These people often believe that there is actual scientific evidence disproving climate change. There, of course, is not.
Isn't that the same argument made by academics when religious observers attempt to reason faith against evidence? And isn't the author now asking for us to "prove via the scientific method" something that would be impossible to do? Perhaps that's the point? Who wants to lose $10,000 of their own money?I know nothing about this guy except what I've read in this one post, but I feel that the author is being intellectually dishonest and with his "prize" and, instead, is attempting to argue his point via propaganda.
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't understand why that line of thought makes you a skeptic. Apparently you found something the current data can not answer. But why do you think your question is even relevant - more important than, say, average temperature? Just because there are questions a model can't answer, the model isn't proven wrong. It just shows that there are things we don't know yet, not that everything we know is wrong. (I am not a…
My point is that you cannot even begin to ask what humans are doing to the global temperature if you do not even have an idea what it would look like without humans.
As I said, I am not a climatologist myself. I am a bit surprised that tree rings are supposedly not accurate enough to say things about a 150 year interval. I was under the impression tree rings develop on a yearly basis? I suppose there are other factors besides temperature that affect their growth. Then again, for standard derivation as you desire, those factors might be easy to cancel out?
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
That kind of consensus is actually worrying to me. It makes it seem like there is very little effort going into ensuring that all the research the climate scientists are doing doesn't have errors. In other words, in the echo chamber there are no critics. Kinda like the dumb ideas that occasionally come out of SF because nobody there knows about the real problems that real people have, they just know about the trivial…
It's quite the same as the fact there are incredibly few biologists who think that evolution is false. The debate is simply not worth having, even though a large number of uninformed people still don't accept it.
A scientist should be able to study the other side without threat of being fired or completely losing their career.
Your viewpoint is as close-minded as many religions.
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#68Another stunning HN thread where a subset of posters have decided they know more about climate change than people dedicating their lives to the study of climate change. Since so many of you are wagering or believing let me just toss out what I believe. I believe that credible and respected climate change scientists have forgotten more than you could ever know about the subject. Climate Change deniers are a joke and a…
So because I'm not an expert, I should have no opinion on the subject? Experts make mistakes all the time. They are just people, after all. I look at the tech world (which I know very well) and "experts" are wrong all the time. I can't imagine it being much different in other fields. I see people here on HN making comments about the economy. Should all of these opinions be ignored because they aren't experts? Look at…
That's not an honest debate.
The reason people don't engage with you has nothing to do with whether you're an expert or not. It's because people who deny climate change often grab a snippet of science, out of context, and that's been given a spin by deniers. Then, rather than learning why that bit is flawed or what the context is they'll just throw it into a discussion and demand that it is explained. And then they'll grab another bit. And another bit. Eventually it's easier to regard this as trolling (which it is - concern trolling) and treat appropriately (by stopping feeding the trolls).
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#69Let's flip this: 1. I will award $10,000 of my own money to anyone that can demonstrate, via the scientific method, that man-made global climate change IS occurring; 2. There is no entry fee; 3. You must be 18 years old or older to enter; 4. Entries do not have to be original, they only need to be first; 5. I am the final judge of all entries but will provide my comments on why any entry fails to prove the point. Obv…
My issue is that I've heard many pro global warming scientists on public radio say that even if man-made global warming doesn't exit, we should have all of these regulations and tax increases because it's good for the environment.
Especially, if you accept that global warming exists but is not man-made, it may be useful to keep backup of energy to be able to deal with it in the future, wouldn't it?
Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lets say we have my blood alcohol level measured in the last 5 mins. It's 0.2g/dL. Whats my blood alcohol level throughout my lifetime though - i reckon it goes up and down quite a bit? How do i know I'm drunk or that it was caused by this keg I just drank? Any data gathered from physiological models I will just arbitrarily ignore... just because...[waves hands]
That's a terrible analogy. Blood alcohol level only rises upon consumption of alcohol. Temperature rises and falls due to tons of external (not fully understood) factors.
And atmospheric temperature has a simple physical model that relates it to C02 levels. And I use the term "simple" deliberately because whilst the short term fluctuations of climate are indeed vey complex - on geological time we have always seen rising temperatures with rising CO2 and have a simple compelling atmospheric model to explain it.
Without arguing over the resolution of the historical scientific data or how fast global warming will happen - it seems inevitable that with the current CO2 levels it will happen.