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The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

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Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#61

Post by ericd »

mjn wrote: post #34
a8da6b0c91d wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not an exaggeration. Find me a market today where four weeks off and a sub one hour drive to a truly nice rental beachfront single family home is a realistic expectation. Also, the home neighborhood is totally safe and good schools are in walking distance. This is the stuff that really drives the cost of living, not square footage and eggs and ipads per dollar.

Find me a market today where four weeks off and a sub one hour drive to a truly nice rental beachfront single family home is a realistic expectation. Also, the home neighborhood is totally safe and good schools are in walking distance. How about Silicon Valley? Cupertino is safe and has good schools. And it's <1 hr drive to Santa Cruz or Half Moon Bay if you want beaches. Or you could do the other direction, and live…

Can you buy a house easily? Take off work and rent a beachfront place in Santa Cruz for a month?

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#62

Post by mehrdada »

eranation wrote: post #58

There is no shortage of bad programmers, there are plenty of medium programmers, it's also not that hard to find decent programmers. It's harder to find good programmers, but much harder to find great ones. The thing is that a great programmer can do 5X more than a good programmer, that can do 2X more than a decent one, that can do 2X more than a medium one. It's not just the number of features they can write in a gi…

I don't disagree that there is a shortage of great programmers, but another problem is that people are generally not willing to pay 100x (or anything close to that) for a 100x programmer. Often they don't even realize whether a person is a great programmer or not.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#63

Post by firstOrder »

FLUX-YOU wrote: post #55
firstOrder wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The objective basis that you are offering engineers too little pay is that they are not taking your offers. Unless you don't believe in one of the first things they teach in modern economics - that at a certain value (price), supply will always meet demand.

Could just be a run of bad luck or not enough advertising on their part. Supply can't meet demand if supply doesn't know demand exists.

I agree about making an effort looking for people. I know nothing about the company being discussed here. But for other companies, I know some that contact a (crappy) headhunter or two, or who post an ad on Craigslist, and then expect top tier candidates to roll in. For some CRUD job working in class C office space for relatively not much money etc. They're shocked when they don't have their pick from dozens of top tier candidates.

If your methods don't work - try going to a local programmer meetup. Chat up some of the programmers. Encourage them to apply. I go to programmer meetups as a programmer, and all the time I meet other programmers who are out of work, or who are unhappy at their job and looking to work elsewhere. Most are employed, but there's always a few who are looking.

What is happening is this - in 2008/2009 the economy was tighter, and employers could get by with a CL posting, or talking to a headhunter or two. Now that unemployment rate is less than 10%, you don't have dozens of good programmers checking CL for jobs every day. You have to do a little more work to find people. Just like THEY had to do a little more work when unemployment was double digit.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#64

Post by x0x0 »

eranation wrote: post #58

There is no shortage of bad programmers, there are plenty of medium programmers, it's also not that hard to find decent programmers. It's harder to find good programmers, but much harder to find great ones. The thing is that a great programmer can do 5X more than a good programmer, that can do 2X more than a decent one, that can do 2X more than a medium one. It's not just the number of features they can write in a gi…

Sorry, but that's nonsensical.

1 - virtually no supposed 5x or 10x programmer makes even 2x more. If people are really 5x, why on earth don't I see $300-$500k salaries? Particularly given the fall in communication costs ala Brooks, it would be an enormous win for employers

2 - at least in the bay area, there would be tons and tons of highly qualified candidates if moving to the bay area wasn't a financial nightmare (cost of living is horrific and the pay doesn't come anywhere close to making up for it); and if buying a decent 3 bedroom home and having kids didn't nearly require winning a startup lottery -- or at least enough for a good downpayment to get to a conforming mortgage.

3 - I'm in my 30s, and in my cohort of developers I know a number (all of them very skilled and in high demand in the bay area) who have moved to the midwest or austin because financially they're so much better off

4 - the majority of complaints about unavailability of developers, particularly in the bay area, are after the fact justifications to (1) cover employers not paying salaries commensurate with the cost of living, and (2) the ability to import (cheaper, more easily controlled) h1b labor

4a - with a side of companies ducking their responsibilities to america, the state they are in, and their communities to help create the employees they need. Now obviously I don't think 1-4 person startups have any such responsibilities, but somewhere between that and google/fb/hp companies have responsibilities to their communities and countries that bay area companies in particular almost completely duck. For example, why isn't facebook or google, in lieu of whinging about difficulty hiring (while illegally restraining wages, ain't that beautiful) running hacker schools themselves? It couldn't be because they'd rather let someone else pay for it and cherry pick the winners (saving money two ways)?

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#65

Post by hueving »

mjn wrote: post #50
mehrdada wrote: post #9

I think it is important to avoid using the term STEM and specifically dissect it in the discussions about shortage. Computer Science is a very peculiar part of STEM and not all of the STEM fields face the same challenges. As Hadi Partovi of Code.org put out eloquently in his testimony before Congress[1], there is a difference between enrollments in Computer Science and STEM in general. For instance, in US high school…

I think it is important to avoid using the term STEM and specifically dissect it in the discussions about shortage. Computer Science is a very peculiar part of STEM and not all of the STEM fields face the same challenges. I think there's a bit of a rhetorical issue with this, though. The dominant narrative is that we have too many people doing soft, fuzzy, weird, useless liberal-arts degrees. Studying things like lit…

You forgot about the E in STEM. Engineers also have very little trouble finding employment.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#66

Post by firstOrder »

mehrdada wrote: post #62
eranation wrote: post #58

There is no shortage of bad programmers, there are plenty of medium programmers, it's also not that hard to find decent programmers. It's harder to find good programmers, but much harder to find great ones. The thing is that a great programmer can do 5X more than a good programmer, that can do 2X more than a decent one, that can do 2X more than a medium one. It's not just the number of features they can write in a gi…

I don't disagree that there is a shortage of great programmers, but another problem is that people are generally not willing to pay 100x (or anything close to that) for a 100x programmer. Often they don't even realize whether a person is a great programmer or not.

You hit the nail on the head. He talks about the 5x programmer. Well if the 1x programmer is making $100k-$150k a year, the 5x programmers should be making $500k-$750k a year. When was the last time you went on Craigslist and saw a programmer job offering over $500k or more a year? I'm not saying it never happens, but...

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#67

Post by hueving »

x0x0 wrote: post #64
eranation wrote: post #58

There is no shortage of bad programmers, there are plenty of medium programmers, it's also not that hard to find decent programmers. It's harder to find good programmers, but much harder to find great ones. The thing is that a great programmer can do 5X more than a good programmer, that can do 2X more than a decent one, that can do 2X more than a medium one. It's not just the number of features they can write in a gi…

Sorry, but that's nonsensical. 1 - virtually no supposed 5x or 10x programmer makes even 2x more. If people are really 5x, why on earth don't I see $300-$500k salaries? Particularly given the fall in communication costs ala Brooks, it would be an enormous win for employers 2 - at least in the bay area, there would be tons and tons of highly qualified candidates if moving to the bay area wasn't a financial nightmare (…

>virtually no supposed 5x or 10x programmer makes even 2x more. If people are really 5x, why on earth don't I see $300-$500k salaries?

Small sample size. These types of developers are very few and far between. I worked with one that I keep in touch with and he is making somewhere between 400 and 500k at his current job. His output of good code was pretty amazing to see. He did manage to produce the work of 5 average Bay area engineers consistently.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#68

Post by mmorett »

ChristianMarks wrote: post #13

The Silicon Valley cartel conspirators helped to depress wages and increase unemployment. Universities have relied on cheap student and postdoc labor. Their game-theoretic strategy is cheap talking their serfs into the belief that they too may become masters. ADDENDUM: downvoters can take a warm piss on a power line.

I normally just lurk, but I signed in just to upvote him. Still laughing...

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#69

Post by matteotom »

tsotha wrote: post #41
_Robbie wrote: post #20

I like this article, but it does not delve very deep into why the current perceived shortage exists. On the public policy side, there is probably a belief that more STEM professionals will increase the economic competitiveness of the nation, even if there is a surplus. From technology businesses' standpoint, it is in their interests to have a surplus of STEM graduates in order to maintain or reduce wages.

>On the public policy side, there is probably a belief that more STEM professionals will increase the economic competitiveness of the nation, even if there is a surplus. Except that it doesn't work, and it should be obvious why. There's no reason to bust your ass in college to enter a field the government floods with foreigners. The more people the government imports the less attractive the field looks to domestic st…

As somebody graduating from high school in a bit, I have to ask: what would you do differently today? It seems to me that, as somebody who can do comp sci reasonably well, that's my best option right now.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#70

Post by hueving »

firstOrder wrote: post #66
mehrdada wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree that there is a shortage of great programmers, but another problem is that people are generally not willing to pay 100x (or anything close to that) for a 100x programmer. Often they don't even realize whether a person is a great programmer or not.

You hit the nail on the head. He talks about the 5x programmer. Well if the 1x programmer is making $100k-$150k a year, the 5x programmers should be making $500k-$750k a year. When was the last time you went on Craigslist and saw a programmer job offering over $500k or more a year? I'm not saying it never happens, but...

Those type of job postings don't go on Craigslist. The few people with those kind of skills just decide where they want to go and apply there.
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