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Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

61–70 of 520 posts

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#61
post #18

This title of this post does a disservice to its contents. "Bitcoin is evil' makes it sound like it's a propaganda piece. I went in expecting some of the usual poorly researched allegations that we've been seeing over the past few weeks. But surprisingly, the post does make a few good points. > Placing a ceiling on the value of bitcoins is computer technology and the form of the hash function… until the limit of 21 m…

"its contents", "its value", "its utility". "It's" is an abbreviation for "it is" or "it has".

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#62
post #9

>>BitCoin looks like it was designed as a weapon intended to damage central banking and money issuing banks, with a Libertarian political agenda in mind—to damage states ability to collect tax and monitor their citizens financial transactions. So basically it brings an ability to the middle-class that normally only the top 1% have. We know wealthy people use tax loopholes(and a few of them, laundering) and... why do…

The rich are not exempt from tax monitoring and transaction monitoring. Actually, a lot of monitoring targets exclusively large accounts and transactions.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#63
>BitCoin looks like it was designed as a weapon intended to damage central banking and money issuing banks, with a Libertarian political agenda in mind—to damage states ability to collect tax and monitor their citizens financial transactions.

And you are going to have to live with it, the same way the people who created Bitcoin will have to live with interventionist policies.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#64
post #38
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may be the end result, but it seems to me like the more direct (but not necessarily simple) solution to this problem is to close up those loopholes for the rich. The government does need to collect taxes after all, and if nobody is paying then we've created another problem.

If r/bitcoin could speak, it would collectively say: "All tax is theft. It is our job to stop being stolen from. All money belongs to me for the benefit of myself. I am all that matters in society."

I will not comment on how much value this kind of snark is not adding to the conversation, but note that fairer forms of tax e.g. property taxes exist and don't require state to track financial transactions.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#65
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To be successful, money must be both a medium of exchange and a reasonably stable store of value. And it remains completely unclear why BitCoin should be a stable store of value. So maybe BitCoin isn't money? We already have something that is a reasonably stable store of value but is not a medium of exchange (gold), so why can't we have something that is a medium of exchange but not a reasonably stable store of val…

Gold is no longer widely used as money, but in the past it was, and was quite successful as a medium of exchange. His argument seems to be that if you want something to be genuinely useful as money, it has to do both reliably, and BitCoin only seems able to do one.

In the past yes, but I'm talking about today. Gold is a stable store of value that is not really used as money (at least in the U.S.)

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#66
post #45
post #21

I'm a liberal, a Keynesian, but my interest in BitCoin is completely non-ideological. And I resent being painted with an ideological brush by Krugman because I can see the elegance in BitCoin, and I can see the possibility that one day, in spite of my ideological beliefs that unregulated markets are susceptible to bubbles and destructive volatility, BitCoin or something like it might still be able to function as a st…

You seem pretty accustomed to economics. Can you explain how exactly or why would anyone buy any items (that's what currencies are for after all) using a deflationary currency? Then again, it's not a design a flaw - as I once thought - it's a clear choice: Why would anyone would want to own a non-deflationary asset? :-) So actually, in my view, BTC as a currency is already failed. No one will be eager to buy online (…

USD and BTC are very easy to interchange. I see no difference between the dollars in my wallet and the Bitcoin in my e-wallet from a spending perspective. I'd spend my Bitcoin at any merchant willing to accept them. I think their value will go up, but I can buy more at the same price at which I just spent them.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#67
It's great that Krugman is trying to to make a purely positive analysis of the potential impacts of Bitcoin. He's entirely correct in saying Bitcoin has zero inherent value, as opposed to gold and USD. But that's missing the point.

Most of us don't think about owning gold in terms of how readily we can make pretty things out of it, or dollars in terms of how easily we can pay our taxes. We hold onto them because both have a reliable history of being easily traded for other goods and services. Ease of exchange trumps inherent value as soon as a currency's users regard it as stable, and Bitcoin hopes to be there in a few decades (presumably starting with the sort of people who follow interesting tech developments, rather than those who care about inherent value).

As a side note, the headline is ridiculous linkbait and someone really ought to change it. Krugman spends most of the article explicitly stating that he doesn't want to muddy the discussion of how well BTC will actually work with normative/political arguments (i.e. the word "evil"). I can't help but feel like someone other than the author titled this article.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#68
post #9

>>BitCoin looks like it was designed as a weapon intended to damage central banking and money issuing banks, with a Libertarian political agenda in mind—to damage states ability to collect tax and monitor their citizens financial transactions. So basically it brings an ability to the middle-class that normally only the top 1% have. We know wealthy people use tax loopholes(and a few of them, laundering) and... why do…

The state monitors financial transactions primarily for tax purposes. I'm guessing a very substantial amount of data they collect is around payroll and sales.

The state monitors transactions first for illegal activity under mechanisms like the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA). Any payments or financial services company follow Know Your Customer standards including running OFAC checks to ensure that the recipient is not a known terrorist.

Monitoring for taxes comes second.

BSA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_secrecy_act

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#69
post #45
post #21

I'm a liberal, a Keynesian, but my interest in BitCoin is completely non-ideological. And I resent being painted with an ideological brush by Krugman because I can see the elegance in BitCoin, and I can see the possibility that one day, in spite of my ideological beliefs that unregulated markets are susceptible to bubbles and destructive volatility, BitCoin or something like it might still be able to function as a st…

You seem pretty accustomed to economics. Can you explain how exactly or why would anyone buy any items (that's what currencies are for after all) using a deflationary currency? Then again, it's not a design a flaw - as I once thought - it's a clear choice: Why would anyone would want to own a non-deflationary asset? :-) So actually, in my view, BTC as a currency is already failed. No one will be eager to buy online (…

It depends on how fast the deflation happens. BitCoin is not all that useful as a currency right now because it's value is so volatile. This is because it is subject to huge increases in demand as it spreads to more places across the globe. It is not hindered by any export controls or borders, which means it can "infect" whole nations/societies/cultures in lumps, as we saw recently with China, sparking a huge jump in price.

But eventually everyone will have heard of BitCoin, and I believe BitCoin's growth will slow down, and its curve will flatten and look more stable. The more people have BitCoin the less small groups of individuals, or even countries, can influence its price.

But look at the growth of vendors who are accepting BitCoin over the same period. For the same reason it doesn't make a whole lot of reason to spend BitCoin during this growth phase, it does make sense to accept BitCoins. And even though most merchants don't wish to speculate with their revenue, even keeping a "float" of currency in BitCoin could be profitable, and so it is reasonable that merchants and vendors might want to accept BitCoin even though not a whole lot people are spending them these days. That can only increase BitCoin's value as a currency in the long run.

If it was unwise or wise to spend something based on its changing value, no matter how slowly, then it would be rational for me to want to spend all my dollars for goods and services today because the dollar value is going down. But the US dollar isn't depreciating at a fast enough rate for it to be rational for me to spend all of my dollars today, right? This is because the currency is inflating at a pretty slow percentage rate. A slow inflation rate is not all that different from a slow deflation rate.

It all depends on what will ultimately be the rate of deflation of BitCoin. If it is sufficiently slow(1% annually, for instance) it will be useful as a currency. If it is all over the place, it won't be.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#70
post #51
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Hyperinflation would make it impossible for the Federal Reserve to buy up enough dollars to stabilize the value of the currency Even if this is true, where is the evidence that we're in imminent danger of hyperinflation? Despite mounting public debt, U.S. inflation has remained incredibly low since the start of the financial crisis four years ago, as has the interest rate that must be paid by the government to issue…

We weren't in imminent danger of hyperinflation. I think mass adoption of Bitcoin will cause hyperinflation. If every merchant you patronize today accepted Bitcoin, would you rather have Bitcoin in your bank account or dollars? I'd rather have Bitcoin. They're easier to transfer, they can't be counterfeited, and their supply can't be manipulated. If every merchant accepts Bitcoin and every consumer agrees with my log…

Bitcoin went up more than tenfold in less than six months. Then if fell by more than half in less than one month. So I strongly disagree that most people would want to use that for their checking account, paycheck, etc.

I am also baffled by "they're easier to transfer" than dollars. Yes you can email BTC. But I can literally hand you dollars. No smartphone needed! And large amounts are trivially easier - I squiggle some lines on a piece of paper and hand it to you. Or if you want to stick to smartphones I can pull one out and send you dollars using one of dozens of e-payment platforms.

Interesting thesis though.

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