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The end of the Facebook era

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Re: The end of the Facebook era

#61

Post by MetaCosm »

hfsktr wrote: post #58
MetaCosm wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? Because no one remembers the misses, only hits. > Where are those guys who predicated that Apple Stores were such a stupid idea? We need to start keeping score. People are starting to keep score! Websites like http://www.pundittracker.com/ are starting to come out of the woodwork, and as more people help collect data (person X claimed Y would happe…

Just don't include a date/timeframe and claim it hasn't happened yet

Yep, that is a common tactic. But there is often an implied date.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#62

Post by cdcarter »

crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

> you can't organize parties on Instagram or Snapchat

You can.

Beyond that, the interesting part is the sentence you yourself quoted. It's utilitarian, it's contact management, it's messaging, but it's not a primary source of content and engagement within the demo, and that's by it's own virtue interesting.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#63

Post by quesera »

VLM wrote: post #54
TrevorJ wrote: post #49

Social networking needs to be a specification. Imagine if email worked the same way social networks worked, it would be ridiculous. You could only communicate with other gmail users, or whatever users were on the platform you adopted. I understand from a business standpoint why social networks have evolved the way they have, but from a utility standpoint it is a lose/lose to have these walled gardens. What would be m…

RSS feeds on a blog and "click here to email me" links? Personally I'm waiting for someone to "reinvent" NNTP.

Done. It's called reddit, and unfortunately not federated.

We're in a recentralization cycle of services, because it's easier to build (and more monetizable) than similar distributed services.

When we have the technical building blocks and business creativity to break the cycle, things will get interesting again.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#64

Post by boomzilla »

Jhsto wrote: post #56
the_watcher wrote: post #17

>> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. This is why the "millennials are leaving Facebook" worry isn't actually real. Yes, middle schoolers and high schoolers aren't using Facebook. They are at a stage in their life where the idea of their parents being able to see into their life is scary. Their social circle is also disproport…

I'am 18 and I agree with you. The way the discussion one day happened in status updates have now moved to usually hidden groups. The groups are usually built around some specific event, say prams, or alternatively around some common interest such as LAN gaming or binge drinking. It works as a new and more appealing way to create what you may consider mailing lists. Engaging in those groups is easier as you post somet…

Great, welcome to the age of bulletin board.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#65

Post by dr_doom »

davidbyttow wrote: post #13

I think FB is simply transitioning from product to utility, like electricity. Just one example is its utility to sign up and log in to other services, which is 95%+ of my FB activity.

Unlikely. I have never had a facebook and with the exception of spotify, which now has email sign up, no service I use has required fb to log in.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#66

Post by owenmarshall »

crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

> It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook".

From an advertising perspective, there's a massive gulf between "teens don't use Facebook" and "senior citizens don't use Facebook".

To put it flippantly: one group is headed into a coveted demographic, the other group buys denture paste.

That's not to say that Facebook wouldn't do fine even if the only people that used it were "uncool and old" like the rest of us, but to an advertiser it's a bit of a worrying sign.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#67

Post by michaelochurch »

Snapchat is a frivolous, silly app mainly used for sexting. I agree that there is something in combing asynchrony and ephemerality, but come on. Nothing run by the likes of Evan Spiegel is going to threaten Facebook. He's not in the same class as Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates. He's not even in the same class as me. He's a rich kid and a lottery winner and should have sold at $3 billion and let someone else run it.

Now, what's going to beat Facebook and LinkedIn and much else in the long run-- and by "long" I mean 2020-25 is something I call "quality social". Facebook provides "social" and there is no meaningful filter on quality. That's not a knock on Facebook; that's not its job. People can fill your feed with junk. Of your 400 "friends", 390 are really acquaintances. I have the most respect for what Meetup is doing ("use the Internet to get off the Internet") but the problem of providing a quality social experience over the Internet is an unsolved one. (Meetup just helps people plan offline experiences.) I think that it will start with multiplayer games. Board games are great at alleviating social awkwardness that forms when people are new to each other or haven't kept in touch for a while. It goes beyond games, though; really, the problem is how to allow people to have meaningful and social experiences in such a way that they can be online, offline, or mixed (i.e. a game where some people are physically in the same place and some are not, or a game that persists as their locations change). Maybe we should try this out, do an Ambition tournament some time in 2014. Anyway, there are a lot of unknown variables-- especially around mobile devices-- but Quality Social is where the future (of social/consumer web) is coming from.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#68

Post by Swizec »

>As your Facebook network becomes saturated, it can feel very public. It puts the focus on managing your image, rather than truly bonding with people. Young startups like Snapchat are providing shelter from the institution of Facebook by serving as a place where you can express yourself comfortably. A place where you don’t feel like your every move is being watched.

This is something I will likely never understand. Why do people have so much trouble with being themselves? This isn't a Facebook problem, this is a society problem. Facebook just exposed it.

Instead of talking about the end of the FB era and making new social networks, we should talk about making people more comfortable with being themselves. The first step is to stop spending so much time judging everyone.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#70

Post by amerika_blog »

It can't end soon enough.

The open internet meant that anyone with TCP/IP could see all content.

Facebook put everything behind a wall that was both effective at blocking open access and ineffective at protecting privacy.

The centralization of the internet into a handful of sites -- Twitter, Wikipedia, Facebook, and Google -- is destructive to the original mission and concept of the internet.

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