Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Thoughts on Bitcoin

blog.samaltman.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 213 posts

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#61

Post by chad_oliver »

3pt14159 wrote: post #38
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I just put a sell order in for a percentage of my bitcoins because I think that there will be a pull back, but with that in mind I have the following response: Some of us don't want the help of a government. The revolutionary thing about Bitcoin is that it is a (nearly) zero trust method of transacting. The value is in the fact that there is no central bank to be afraid of. Most of the wealth my parents have lost in…

I agree with the majority of your post, but I'm not convinced that inflation should be included in your list of bad things ("do you want inflation, meddling, and regulation?"). A moderate amount of inflation is a very good thing, and this isn't really even open to debate among economists. Its importance has been empirically and theoretically proven many times.

Inflation is important because economics is all about creating incentives. We have property rights because it gives people an incentive to work hard and takes risks. We have patents because they give people an incentive to explain how their invention works. We have a market economy because it means that if a company wants to gain market share, it has to create value for the consumer. In the same way, central banks try to maintain low levels of inflation (~3%) because it encourages people to invest their money in profitable ventures, rather than just leaving it under the mattress. Investment is the way wealth is created, so it should be pretty obvious that deflation is bad for the economy.

Notice that I'm talking about the economic health of the country, not the individual citizen. If you're only concerned about immediate short term benefits, you should push for zero taxes, high deflation, and the gold standard. But that's penny wise and pound foolish. You're shooting yourself in the foot. Better by far is to support actions which improve the economy, because a rising tide lifts all boats.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#62

Post by jakejake »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #42
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC. Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything.…

welcome to the roller coaster ride! i was playing the bitcoin market with a small amount of money and had automated orders buying at $90 and selling at $120. It kept accumulating coins fairly consistently for a few months. My "sell everything" order kicked in at $140 but the value just kept rocketing up to $1000!

Even though I made money obviously I'm a bit sad about it. But it just shows that nobody can see into the future. I thought at the time that $140 would be a ridiculous profit.

My advice if you plan to go long is to just resist watching the value because it will drive you crazy and you'll make stupid moves as you try to guess which way the graph is going to go.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#63

Post by CamperBob2 »

Udo wrote: post #51
sillysaurus2 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC. Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything.…

> Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. As with most investments, you need to think medium and long term. Barring some kind of final(!) crash, there isn't anywhere to go for BTC but up. Mainstream media and ordinary people are just now starting to talk about it. Stay with your investment, and don't sell before it at least doubled. If it crashes temporarily, that's fine too: chaos is a ladder. Within reasonab…

While it wasn't the biggest money mistake of my life, it's certainly a whopper in retrospect. Don't be like me ;)

I have a problem classifying random things like this as a mistake. You didn't have enough information at the time to predict that BTC would exceed $1000, and you don't have enough information now to predict what it will do, either.

It's just a game of musical chairs. The only "mistake" is to play. Some mistakes we pay for, while others ultimately benefit us.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#64

Post by notdrunkatall »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #48
nkuttler wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope those 11k aren't all your savings. I have coins, am bullish long term, but buying bitcoin is speculation, and bitcoin can fall back to $0.01, even if I don't think it's likely.

It is indeed all my savings. But I was saving it anyway, so I won't be out in a doghouse if it vanishes. I guess I'm dumb, but at this stage in my life I'd rather have 9.89BTC than $11k. My theory is, everyone's expecting it to crash. So therefore it's more likely to do the opposite. Not much of a theory, but it seems to have been historically true.

All I can say for certain is that you're in for a hell of a ride. Good luck.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#65

Post by CamperBob2 »

ljd wrote: post #49
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I actually think the decentralized nature of bitcoin is what gives it all it's value. The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. Currency manipulation is a really big problem right now, and knowing that you can buy a currency that won't be artificially controlled by it's issuer is an asset in itself. Having the currency centrally controlled again isn't special and it doesn't deviate enough from a c…

The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value.

But the fact that anyone can roll their own competing currency inherently kills value, doesn't it?

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#66

Post by CamperBob2 »

rsingel wrote: post #55
sjtgraham wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

International transfers are not intrinsically difficult or expensive, the real cost is in pennies. The reason why cross border payments are priced like they are is due to the lack of incentive, either economic or regulatory. BTC is a massive economic incentive for banks to charge more in line with the their true costs. Even if BTC fails as a currency itself, its greatest success might be catalysing innovation on pric…

Well, there's a lot of paperwork and time involved. Most U.S. banks raised their international wire fees to ~$60 at the end of October to comply with more regulations.

Or discontinued support for outgoing international wires altogether, as my Chase account did.

That freaked me out, but unfortunately it didn't freak me out enough to make me buy a bunch of Bitcoins.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#68

Post by marvin »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #63
Udo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. As with most investments, you need to think medium and long term. Barring some kind of final(!) crash, there isn't anywhere to go for BTC but up. Mainstream media and ordinary people are just now starting to talk about it. Stay with your investment, and don't sell before it at least doubled. If it crashes temporarily, that's fine too: chaos is a ladder. Within reasonab…

While it wasn't the biggest money mistake of my life, it's certainly a whopper in retrospect. Don't be like me ;) I have a problem classifying random things like this as a mistake. You didn't have enough information at the time to predict that BTC would exceed $1000, and you don't have enough information now to predict what it will do, either. It's just a game of musical chairs. The only "mistake" is to play. Some mi…

You could make the same argument about investing in the stock market. It is not a mistake to participate, but know the risks before you do.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#69

Post by Udo »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #63
Udo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. As with most investments, you need to think medium and long term. Barring some kind of final(!) crash, there isn't anywhere to go for BTC but up. Mainstream media and ordinary people are just now starting to talk about it. Stay with your investment, and don't sell before it at least doubled. If it crashes temporarily, that's fine too: chaos is a ladder. Within reasonab…

While it wasn't the biggest money mistake of my life, it's certainly a whopper in retrospect. Don't be like me ;) I have a problem classifying random things like this as a mistake. You didn't have enough information at the time to predict that BTC would exceed $1000, and you don't have enough information now to predict what it will do, either. It's just a game of musical chairs. The only "mistake" is to play. Some mi…

I think the decision to sell what would now be quite a nice Christmas bonus is, as you say and as I said above, a mistake only when viewed in retrospect. Now, however, I do have more information to go on. Yes, it's still a gamble.
Post reply on HN