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Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

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Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#61

Post by pmelendez »

asveikau wrote: post #40
morkbot wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WP started to get some traction recently, nothing earth-shattering but still... http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/11/04/report-windows-phon...

And how does that compare with Symbian sales before Elop? I have not looked at a comparison, but it would not surprise me if Windows Phone has not yet caught up. Don't get me wrong, I am not a Symbian fanboy and I think Nokia held onto it for too long, but the notion that "no one was buying Nokia phones" is not the whole story. It probably resonates with the average HN reader, who is relatively young, lives in the US…

"And how does that compare with Symbian sales before Elop? I have not looked at a comparison, but it would not surprise me if Windows Phone has not yet caught up."

I can give you a reference that is close to me. Windows phone is 2nd place in latin america (http://techcrunch.com/2013/08/22/windows-phone-snags-second-...) where the first is Blackberry and nobody used Symbian.

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#62

Post by basch »

zokier wrote: post #52

Because what Nokia needs right now is a board full of nostalgic nationalists and yet another complete change of strategy and tech.

"Upon the closing of the transaction, Nokia would be restricted from licensing the Nokia brand for use in connection with mobile device sales for 30 months and from using the Nokia brand on Nokia’s own mobile devices until December 31, 2015."

Nokia sold Microsoft its production lines, and licensed its patents. Starting in 2016 Nokia can reenter the cell phone market again. Basically Nokia gutted its legacy capital, and is taking a two year break and reevaluating what direction it should orient itself.

Nokia and Microsoft could not have made a more mutually beneficial deal. Microsoft gets a thriving hardware division NOW, and Nokia gets cash and the ability to reboot itself with no short term risk.

My point is, Nokia DOES need a change of strategy and tech, they will just be taking at least two years to blow bucketloads of cash on R&D, instead of worrying about short term end-consumer sales. Personally I'm kind of excited to see what Nokia comes up with. (Everyone seems to also be forgetting that Microsoft only purchased the mobile device business. Nokia's most profitable sector was its Nokia/Siemens Networks, which it still owns. They also kept their Patents and Mapping software. Microsoft get's a 10 year license with the option to upgrade to a perpetual one. Nokia is going to make a TON of money off one of the worlds largest companies, and Microsoft gets cheap intellectual property. Win/Win.) The sky is their limit.

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#63

Post by basch »

davissorenson wrote: post #11
blahbl4hblahtoo wrote: post #7

It's really weird how people have started to anthropomorphize these corporations and their products...why do this? If you could raise billions you could start a new endeavor? Nokia isn't an old friend of yours. There's nothing to "save". Raise your billions and hire some of their designers if you like the work that they do.

> There's nothing to "save". To be fair, there's a lot of intellectual property at stake.

Nokia kept all its intellectual property.

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#64

Post by specialp »

throwawaykf02 wrote: post #32
Zigurd wrote: post #13

Probably not this proposal, but there are a couple scenarios that could lead to Nokia being a takeover target: 1. Microsoft's activist shareholders tanking the deal, perhaps by pointing out that buying Nokia's factories and the whole legacy handset business including Series 30 and Asha is pretty crazy. 2. Nokia's board concluding that, now that they are rid of Elop, could reboot Nokia themselves: spin Jolla back in,…

Regarding Asha: I hear Asha is doing crazy well in low-end markets. Not sure how Microsoft can leverage it, but I'm sure they are aware of this.

The low end is being destroyed by "white box" Android phones from China. There is simply no way to compete with them on price since they do not have to develop software and sell nearly at cost. This will be the same with high end phones soon as improvements level off and it becomes commoditized. I think that mobile phone manufacturers will have poor to no margins quite soon. The only place to make money now is through the ecosystem.

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#65

Post by asveikau »

pmelendez wrote: post #61
asveikau wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how does that compare with Symbian sales before Elop? I have not looked at a comparison, but it would not surprise me if Windows Phone has not yet caught up. Don't get me wrong, I am not a Symbian fanboy and I think Nokia held onto it for too long, but the notion that "no one was buying Nokia phones" is not the whole story. It probably resonates with the average HN reader, who is relatively young, lives in the US…

"And how does that compare with Symbian sales before Elop? I have not looked at a comparison, but it would not surprise me if Windows Phone has not yet caught up." I can give you a reference that is close to me. Windows phone is 2nd place in latin america ( http://techcrunch.com/2013/08/22/windows-phone-snags-second-... ) where the first is Blackberry and nobody used Symbian.

I don't think you understood my point. I was saying I would not be surprised if Symbian in 2011 was selling more units than Windows Phone in 2013.

For example, just from press reports that I can find on Google, Nokia sold 20 million Symbian phones in Q4 2011, and 4.4 million Windows Phones in Q4 2012.

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#66

Post by pmelendez »

asveikau wrote: post #65
pmelendez wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"And how does that compare with Symbian sales before Elop? I have not looked at a comparison, but it would not surprise me if Windows Phone has not yet caught up." I can give you a reference that is close to me. Windows phone is 2nd place in latin america ( http://techcrunch.com/2013/08/22/windows-phone-snags-second-... ) where the first is Blackberry and nobody used Symbian.

I don't think you understood my point. I was saying I would not be surprised if Symbian in 2011 was selling more units than Windows Phone in 2013. For example, just from press reports that I can find on Google, Nokia sold 20 million Symbian phones in Q4 2011, and 4.4 million Windows Phones in Q4 2012.

"I was saying I would not be surprised if Symbian in 2011 was selling more units than Windows Phone in 2013."

Yeah that was what I understood. However, I was just giving an example of a Non-US market where that were not true :)

"For example, just from press reports that I can find on Google, Nokia sold 20 million Symbian phones in Q4 2011"

That's true, but you have to also considerate the tendency:

http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/images/news/smartphoneshipmen...

At that moment it looks like Symbian was running out of gas.

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#67

Post by sirkneeland »

basch wrote: post #62
zokier wrote: post #52

Because what Nokia needs right now is a board full of nostalgic nationalists and yet another complete change of strategy and tech.

"Upon the closing of the transaction, Nokia would be restricted from licensing the Nokia brand for use in connection with mobile device sales for 30 months and from using the Nokia brand on Nokia’s own mobile devices until December 31, 2015." Nokia sold Microsoft its production lines, and licensed its patents. Starting in 2016 Nokia can reenter the cell phone market again. Basically Nokia gutted its legacy capital, a…

As a Nokia R&D employee (staying in Nokia), I'm glad other people are starting to get the insane potential of New Nokia (with its retained R&D labs and talent, its mountain of patents, and its newly found mountain of cash--and no longer dividing attention between smartphone improvements and going after "the next big thing")

That said, I'm still emotionally bummed at what happened to Nokia in the last few years, and don't think it was inevitable that this had to happen to Nokia.

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#68

Post by sirkneeland »

specialp wrote: post #46
Mikeb85 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He canned their best phone (N9) and OS (Meego), only to pursue a clearly inferior business strategy, drive the stock price down, and enable a Microsoft takeover...

I was an owner of a N9 and really enjoyed the OS. Most of the employees that developed Maemo and MeeGo are carrying on at jolla.com. They still have not shipped a phone yet and I have been following them for nearly 2 years now. As much as I love the close to open source atmosphere and very good UI of the N9, Elop is right. Android turned making phones into a commodity. The only place where money can be made is by pro…

"Android turned making phones into a commodity. The only place where money can be made is by providing an ecosystem."

I agree with that. Having an ecosystem is the root of value in mobile device companies. Elop was correct to identify an ecosystem as the most important thing. Where it gets controversial is the subsequent MSFT decision, which could be interpreted as saying "Now that we have determined ecosystems are the most valuable thing a company can have, we are torching ours and outsourcing that part of the company to Microsoft"

The more logical thing would have been "now that we have determined ecosystems are the most valuable thing a company can have, we are all-in with Qt and MeeGo."

Of course, it ultimately boils down to whether Elop and Nokia's leadership had more faith in Microsoft than in themselves to build that ecosystem. In terms of execution, neither company had been firing on all cylinders for quite some time...

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#69

Post by sirkneeland »

killme wrote: post #51
Mikeb85 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to everyone who saw it and touched it. I was watching their unveiling of the phone, trading their stock and listening to market opinion, and I remember that very day. Everyone in the market agreed that Meego could have been huge (it was also open-source like Android, and in many ways a better OS), and it was only Elop's allegiance to Microsoft which killed it. Meego was good enough that Jolla picked it up,…

> (it was also open-source like Android, and in many ways a better OS). Open source is not a very big selling point to the masses. WebOS was open source and better than Android at the time, had good reviews, but it flopped miserably. >Speaking of ecosystems, fast forward a few years, if Nokia had indeed attempted to push Meego and failed, Android would have been the logical choice You're assuming that Nokia would not…

I agree with your points, but as a quibble, webOS was not open source at the time. The decision to open-source webOS didn't come until the end of 2011.

(I should know, I was working there).

Re: Nokita: A Plan to Raise Billions and buy out Nokia before Microsoft

#70

Post by sirkneeland »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #44
killme wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>best phone (N9) and OS (Meego) Best phone and OS according to who? The same folks who cheered on the OpenMoko? As Elop said, the market has turned from a battle of devices into a war of ecosystems. Meego would've ended up like BB10 running on QNX(remember how many folks on here salivated about a QNX based mobile OS?), critically appreciated but with no apps and sales. Nokia recently became the fourth largest OEM in…

According to everyone who saw it and touched it. I was watching their unveiling of the phone, trading their stock and listening to market opinion, and I remember that very day. Everyone in the market agreed that Meego could have been huge (it was also open-source like Android, and in many ways a better OS), and it was only Elop's allegiance to Microsoft which killed it. Meego was good enough that Jolla picked it up,…

Another problem is that the final (and truly brilliant) UI of the N9 didn't exist at the time Elop made the decision to kill it. At the time, the Swipe UI was not done, and was actually the 3rd "let's start over" initiative with the MeeGo UI at the time (so you can see why there was skepticism on it).

But man, they really knocked it out of the park. It was (and still is) the best smartphone UI ever made.

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