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To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

economist.com

61–70 of 145 posts

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#61
Given all the talk about "Open access" and reforming peer review, one of the most important things to fix should be publication bias. Positive and negative results both need to be published, along with all the tools and data.

Does anyone know if there are groups aiming for that standard?

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#62

I am sometimes amused to read failed replication studies which do not calculate their own statistical power -- so they do not know whether, assuming the original study was correct, they will have the sample size to reliably detect an effect. A failed replication then says nothing about the original conclusions. Statistical error is a hobby of mine. The Economist mentions a few pervasive errors, but there are many mor…

Nice article, but copying an xkcd image without copying the image's tooltip text is criminal.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#63
The fundamental problem as I see it: science can either produce a high rate of unreliable results or a low rate of reliable results, but the market demands a high rate of reliable results.

The market produces the current situation because the rate of results is much easier to observe than their reliability.

No one wants to fund a study only to get no result out of it. So they end up getting an unreliable result instead.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#64
post #52
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's quite clear that "hackers" don't understand enough about the research to make informed criticisms. Cherry picking two measurements of temperature data does not make for a convincing rebuttal against the overwhelming independent lines of evidence summarized in (among other places), the IPCC reports.

Ah yes. I need to listen to authority and ignore the fact that observed data are falling out the bottom side of their models' 95% confidence intervals. This is how science is done in the modern age.

Prove your claim. Cite something other than a picture you found on a blog.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#65
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It didn't mention climate change. I know from past experience that this line of argument -- indeed, any that casts doubt on scientific research -- is a favorite of the "climate skeptic" world. Moreover, I know that the Economist has a center-right political bias. Maybe they're advocating for something specific here (it's honestly unclear), but given that the Economist almost never writes anything of substance about s…

Evidently you don't consume the Economist very often. http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/09/ipcc-climate-... To put it in the language you seem to prefer, Bill O'Reilly thinks the Economist leans left. I disagree with Mr. O'Reilly's employers and will not send them traffic, but support for this claim is easily googled. ETA: The link above is more flip than I'd like. Try this: http://www.economist.com/news/le…

I don't think that the Economist is a reactionary right-wing publication (at least, not the editorial board), but I do think there are people on its staff who are sympathetic to the climate change denialists.

That said, I think the piece is puzzling, not that I'm sure it's a right-wing hatchet job on science.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#66

This is an excellent overview article on an important topic. It mentions many of the most influential authors on the topic of accuracy of scientific publications. Hacker News readers may enjoy "Warning Signs in Experimental Design and Interpretation"[1] by Peter Norvig, a LISP hacker who is now director of research at Google, on how to interpret scientific research. Norvig's essay is my all-time favorite link to shar…

This beautiful (parent) comment, in contrast to the main article, actually contains links and references to the items it refers to. Is there some compelling reason I don't understand why _so_ many magazines / websites, even high profile reputable ones, cannot manage to link or cite?

I suspect the reason is that outbound links drive traffic away from ads and internal links. The more visitors you have, the more profit you lose by adding outbound links... It's sad and I wish there was some way to fix the incentives.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#67

I am sometimes amused to read failed replication studies which do not calculate their own statistical power -- so they do not know whether, assuming the original study was correct, they will have the sample size to reliably detect an effect. A failed replication then says nothing about the original conclusions. Statistical error is a hobby of mine. The Economist mentions a few pervasive errors, but there are many mor…

That's great work and I want more of it!

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#68
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did this article mention climate change? If you agree with every fact in the article, why would you look for a hidden agenda? Your comment makes you seem a bit paranoid.

I also think the linked article was somewhat strange. Or maybe just linkbaity. The title can be paraphrased as "To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting." However, the article actually describes the way science is supposed to work, which is self-correcting. The main criticism in the article seems to be that, in much of current scientific practice, the self-correction doesn't happen immediately. Well, it…

> The article begins by touting a concern over a 1998 "priming" study. In the third paragraph, the article states that there have been nine (9!) subsequent studies that have failed to replicate the 1998 study's result. Is that not an example of the scientific self-correction working quite well?

Ideally, you'd like to see the original study being discredited before the point where 9 separate studies have exposed serious problems with it (and it's not clear that it's been discredited yet). Papers continue to pick up citations even after they've been formally retracted; that's also not a good example of self-correction working well even though the retraction process is supposed to be self-correction. Correction hasn't happened until people stop believing in problematic papers.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#69
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It didn't mention climate change. I know from past experience that this line of argument -- indeed, any that casts doubt on scientific research -- is a favorite of the "climate skeptic" world. Moreover, I know that the Economist has a center-right political bias. Maybe they're advocating for something specific here (it's honestly unclear), but given that the Economist almost never writes anything of substance about s…

Evidently you don't consume the Economist very often. http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/09/ipcc-climate-... To put it in the language you seem to prefer, Bill O'Reilly thinks the Economist leans left. I disagree with Mr. O'Reilly's employers and will not send them traffic, but support for this claim is easily googled. ETA: The link above is more flip than I'd like. Try this: http://www.economist.com/news/le…

Economist is conservative (erm, right) by European standards. It just happens that it comes out as fairly left by American standards, given that we are so right of the continent.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#70

The guy who wrote Zen and The Art of Motorcycle Maintenance had a problem with the scientific method too: "Through multiplication upon multiplication of facts, information, theories and hypotheses it is science itself that is leading mankind from single absolute truths to multiple, indeterminate, relative ones. The major producer of the social chaos, the indeterminacy of thoughts and values that rational knowledge is…

Thanks for mentioning this book. I think this book by Robert Pirsig should be on the short list of "Must Reads" of any true hacker
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