For my ML class, I used this dataset to play around with predicting plays. Im obviously no expert, but wanted to share my report anyways:
Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
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Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#62Now all we need is some historical line & associated movement data...
Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#63Here is an idea: build a predictive model of an offensive coach that predicts the play he will call, given a game situation (and based on that, build a predictiveness quotient for a coach).
Here is a start: https://www.dropbox.com/s/cy04oxaq83mxvoz/report.pdf
Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#64FYI, for baseball fans, you can get similar data about each play in the MLB from http://www.retrosheet.org
Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#65I'm frankly surprised that this information is allowed to be distributed. I spent awhile in the financial services industry, and while it was really easy to obtain "public" information like stock quote data, I recall that we weren't allowed to simply scrape data from public sites... we had to pay a license fee to get a feed of the data if we were planning on repackaging & distributing it. It seems to me that the NFL…
I'd love to believe that this data falls underneath the "Facts are not copyrightable" decision: http://chart.copyrightdata.com/c16B.html
Facts are not copyrightable, but databases (compilations of data) are.
IANALTINALA.
Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#66From Line 42536 of the 2008 CSV file: 20090201_PIT@ARI,2,30,18,ARI,PIT,1,1,1,(:18) (Shotgun) K.Warner pass short middle intended for A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by J.Harrison at PIT 0. J.Harrison for 100 yards TOUCHDOWN. Super Bowl Record longest interception return yards. Penalty on ARZ-E.Brown Face Mask (15 Yards) declined. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling and the play was Upheld.,7,10,200…
And here is that play :)
Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#67From Line 42536 of the 2008 CSV file: 20090201_PIT@ARI,2,30,18,ARI,PIT,1,1,1,(:18) (Shotgun) K.Warner pass short middle intended for A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by J.Harrison at PIT 0. J.Harrison for 100 yards TOUCHDOWN. Super Bowl Record longest interception return yards. Penalty on ARZ-E.Brown Face Mask (15 Yards) declined. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling and the play was Upheld.,7,10,200…
@edw518, Awesome! Thank you for sharing what you're doing here with the data. I was thinking of playing with this dataset too and since I'm new to this field (data), look forward to learning from you if you post more info in the future! Thanks!
One of the "new" ways that Burke (data creator) et al are using with this type of data is finding the Expected Points Added for each plays. The EPA allows one to determine how valuable players are to a team's performance.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01/expected-points-ep-a...
I've been trying to work at the college football level with this same strategy but I'm still trying to figure out how its calculated. It seems trivial but it takes a lot of data organizing.
Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#68A bit OT, but I thought this might be a good opportunity to mention the upcoming SportsHackDay in Seattle from Feb 1-3 which culminates in a group viewing of the SuperBowl.
http://sportshackday.com/
Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#69I'm frankly surprised that this information is allowed to be distributed. I spent awhile in the financial services industry, and while it was really easy to obtain "public" information like stock quote data, I recall that we weren't allowed to simply scrape data from public sites... we had to pay a license fee to get a feed of the data if we were planning on repackaging & distributing it. It seems to me that the NFL…
Fun fact: In the UK even the FA Premier League fixture list is copyrighted, and websites or publications wishing to publish all or part of the fixture list for a given season need to pay a licence fee.
I can't even give you a list of football fixtures coming up this weekend without breaking copyright law.
Re: Every NFL play for the past 10 years in CSV format
#70Here is an idea: build a predictive model of an offensive coach that predicts the play he will call, given a game situation (and based on that, build a predictiveness quotient for a coach).
If only a single play call had a single potential outcome, and that outcome was always met. Using these stats for predictions would seem extremely difficult beyond answering, "will it be a run or a pass?"
If you were the defensive coordinator on the opposing team, knowing the answer to "run or pass" with a high degree of certainty would give you a pretty large advantage.