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SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

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Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#61

Post by Danox »

high_na_euv wrote: post #5
thijson wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember in the 90's there was some sort of shortage reportedly due to fires. In the end it was found the shortage was due to collusion by the manufacturers. https://share.google/aimode/ewJpwCHUINOHzjBVg

But fortunely today we know that there is huge demand due to AI

Is it actual demand or is it just a future IOU? I will buy ram in the future keep the door open for me (OpenAI)?

I think whatever happens it will be their last big payday because some of the companies that can do have the money and the capability are going to make plans to move away. From the Cartel.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#62

Post by UltraSane »

PowerElectronix wrote: post #10

He could just have said "lasting forever and ever". It's ram chips, the bottom of the barrel of semi manufacturing. If you get high prices for long enough, everyone is gonna jump into the market.

With RAM so profitable it makes sense to invest in new factories to build it. This should in time increase supply and decrease price but it takes a good 5 years for a new RAM fab to start producing.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#63

Post by UltraSane »

drob518 wrote: post #47
throw234259 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> everyone is gonna jump into the market Whom exactly? Korea and Taiwan are already saturated. EU may take 5 yearrs just to approve plans formnew factory. US is interested in super fast super duper AIG, ddr5 is way too boring. Only competitor is mainlaind china!

DDR5 might be boring, but the high prices are strangling the tech market, including AI. It can’t keep this up much longer. Someone needs to step up and make more. I’m surprised the USA hasn’t offered money to TSMC, Intel, or Micron to expand manufacturing under the CHIPS act or whatever to help ease this shortage.

All the players are investing hundreds of billions of dollars (US) into new fabs. But SK Hynix said customers are signing 5 year contracts which used to be unheard of.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#64

Post by theandrewbailey »

vikramkr wrote: post #46

That's like 3 and a half years away? I can see that - fabs don't get built overnight and bubbles aren't under any obligation to pop on a timeline. Wild that 2030 is not that far away. Sometimes it feels like we never left 2020.

> Sometimes it feels like we never left 2020.

There's still a part of me that thinks 2020 will be the bright shiny future that will solve all our problems, but the other parts know that 2020 showed us that we live in the dark future where all our dreams died.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#65

Post by Danox »

throw234259 wrote: post #18
PowerElectronix wrote: post #10

He could just have said "lasting forever and ever". It's ram chips, the bottom of the barrel of semi manufacturing. If you get high prices for long enough, everyone is gonna jump into the market.

> everyone is gonna jump into the market Whom exactly? Korea and Taiwan are already saturated. EU may take 5 yearrs just to approve plans formnew factory. US is interested in super fast super duper AIG, ddr5 is way too boring. Only competitor is mainlaind china!

In my opinion, Apple will design around the memory cartel. They possess the financial resources, design, and engineering capabilities in-house (Apple Silicon).

Apple acquired Infineon from Intel, which was struggling, and developed an in-house modem. They certainly have the expertise to design memory and SSDs (PA Semi, Intrinsity, Anobit).

I believe Apple must implement this strategy if they intend to build their devices, and advance into the future in a timely manner, and Apple has demonstrated its ability to execute over time when necessary. This is undoubtedly one of those critical times.

I anticipate that the memory cartel will eventually experience its final significant financial gain, and those who can will design around them.

Yes, it will take time 2 to 4 years but that is nothing took 13 years to replace Intel and six years to replace Qualcomm which has already warned its investors on Apple, leaving them.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#66

Post by Danox »

geodel wrote: post #23
throw234259 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> everyone is gonna jump into the market Whom exactly? Korea and Taiwan are already saturated. EU may take 5 yearrs just to approve plans formnew factory. US is interested in super fast super duper AIG, ddr5 is way too boring. Only competitor is mainlaind china!

But for now can't EU regulate the RAM price? They seem to be able to do what they want.

Lawyers/politicians in the EU wait years before they do anything usually it’s after the damage has already been done. The only thing they will do is issue a fine after the fact.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#67

Post by Danox »

nashashmi wrote: post #37

Given the possibility of setting up new memory fab plants takes 10 years, given that data companies are spending money on power plants based on power consumption forecasts, but are not spending on memory fab plants, I take it that data companies are seeing the current memory makers as sufficient for their needs. Meaning if the avg consumer is going to buy memory, they are going to have to fork a whole lot more money…

It takes $10-$20 billion dollars and 2 to 4 years to set up a foundry, TSMC took about four years to set up their location in Arizona and there is a hell of a lot more involved with what they do. It’s not impossible to do it in less time the Chinese certainly will.

If a company is motivated and has the money they can get it done. I think those three memory companies are counting on people to be stupid.

Intel, Nvidia, and Qualcomm certainly thought they had Apple over the barrel…

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#68

Post by Danox »

alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

I’m surprised by the skepticism too. You need look no further the Chinese who certainly will do it and I think one company in America will do it too much is riding on getting the right products out in time.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#69

Post by Danox »

vlucas wrote: post #17
alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

Same. There is huge, real demand for memory and storage everywhere you look. New capacity takes 3-5 years to come online. Every vendor has completely sold out capacity and is backlogged on top of that. This 5-year estimate is actually pretty realistic to me. I think we are stuck with high prices on these components for at least the next 3 years, minimum.

There are some companies who need the memory right now and there are others the AI people who are just issuing future buying IOUs and I might buy some memory from you in the future and the cartel is using that as leverage to get more money out of the companies that really need memory right away.

At the end of this fiasco, there will be some companies that will move on from the cartel.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#70

Post by Danox »

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #44
alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

I think that a lot of people miss key aspects of the AI boom. Even discounting the skeptics, and the bubblers, crashers, etc. There are a bunch of things that happen in parallel to the AI boom: a) everyone and their mother is building out capacity. For each GB of VRAM installed, you generally want at least 1 GB of RAM, if not more. So just take nvda's numbers and go from there. And that's just for the GPU servers. Bu…

I think it will be their last big payday. I think they’re forgetting that you can design around them. It just takes 2 to 4 years. It’s not good business in the long run to piss off your customers cause you may not get them back.
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