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The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

thetariffcost.com

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Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#61

Post by ericmay »

mthoms wrote: post #50
ericmay wrote: post #6

> And Canada is taxing you back This seems illogical. You can't simultaneously claim that the US is paying higher prices for Canadian goods because of US-imposed tariffs and then turn around and say only that Americans are paying a tax on buying Canadian goods on Canadian-imposed tariffs. Both countries are either paying higher prices or paying higher taxes. Canada's tariffs must also be viewed as America is taxing C…

First, I agree with your complaint about that wording. Aside from that, the "obvious" dairy tariffs you speak of are almost entirely theoretical. Those are anti-dumping tariffs that kick-in only when a certain threshold has been met. It never has. That's not to say there aren't trade barriers. The US side argues that there are market barriers that make reaching those quotas impossible [0]. It's a fair point and worth…

Fair enough, I agree the truth is more nuanced. I regret even using dairy as that has caused a lot more of a discussion about the specific item being, idk, targeted? than I would have liked and detracted from a more broad point that I wanted to make or at least discuss. Thanks for sharing that article, will take a look at that too.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#62

Post by llm_nerd »

ericmay wrote: post #58
llm_nerd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So how do tariffs come in to play if there are no tariffs applied? What is the duty you pay on duty free goods? Is this a serious question? Canada negotiated in a quota of dairy products the US could export to Canada tariff free. If the US exceeds this quota, there are tariffs. If it doesn't, there are none. It has never even come close to hitting the quota, much less exceeding it, and the total tariffs ever paid o…

> Canada negotiated in a quota of dairy products the US could export to Canada tariff free. If the US exceeds this quota, there are tariffs. If it doesn't, there are none. It has never even come close to hitting the quota, much less exceeding it, and the total tariffs ever paid on this has been $0. So you wouldn't take issue with an America quota on assembled motor vehicles, for example, since that wouldn't be a tari…

>So you wouldn't take issue with an America quota on assembled motor vehicles, for example, since that wouldn't be a tariff? Maybe that automaker moves most of its facilities back to the US and now yea you've got one factory making 10,000 cars/year or something and that's under the quota, but you were effectively tariffed anyway because to maintain facilities would breach the quota that was set. Were you outright tariffed? No. Were you effectively tariffed? Absolutely.

You've returned to this example twice now. And it's interesting. Did you know Canada imports and buys more vehicles from the US than we export to the US? Or at least it did before this incredibly stupid, self-destructive trade war.

Did you know that prior to NAFTA cum USMCA it was the reverse? Like literally, this is one of those amazing punch yourself in the face moments.

But sure, if this was negotiated into a trade deal where we made compromises and both sides understood and agreed, sure thing. We'll cut off American vehicles just the same. I mean, America's automakers sure are shitting their pants about Canada importing a tiny number of Chinese cars, which is kind of funny. Again, Canada compromised in both NAFTA, and redoubled in USMCA, because of our dairy system. Now your rapist goblin gets his ill-informed clownshow enraged about something we've given in for twice.

Again, tear up USMCA. Close the border, effectively. I am 100% onboard. I absolutely, positively do not want the government to give a fucking iota, even if there is short term damage from it.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#63

Post by fraserphysics »

apercu wrote: post #7
lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I'm trying to think of the number of people I (an American) know who considered trade with Canada to be a real issue. The answer I keep coming back to is I know zero people who considered that. Does the US have a trade imbalance that causes problems, particularly in our manufacturing sector? Yes. Can tariffs kind of help with that? Also yes. Really, you need to instill some sort of sense of duty to country in busines…

But does America have a trade imbalance with Canada? Canada has things that our economy needs desperately (e.g. potash).

Yes! US agriculture (Mostly a red state industry) needs potash. Google AI says that most potash comes from (in order) Canada ("is the primary global exporter and supplies nearly 80% of U.S. imports"), Russia, Belarus, China, and "smaller volumes are supplied by countries [...]".

If I were king of Canada, I would restrict supplies of such materials needed by red states.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#64

Post by A_D_E_P_T »

afavour wrote: post #16
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claude built the site, it's obvious from the style. Which is to say that anybody with a $200 subscription and access to Namecheap and Netlify could have built the site in one hour flat. There's no longer any need for an NGO, media nonprofit, or lobbying group to build such things; the effort required has been reduced to near-zero, so anybody can do it.

> There's no longer any need for an NGO, media nonprofit, or lobbying group to build such things; the effort required has been reduced to near-zero Right but actually creating the thing is only half the story. You need to fact check it (especially with LLMs) promote it, approach journalists to bring it to their attention, etc etc etc. In many ways making a web site has always been the easy part.

> You need to fact check it (especially with LLMs)

That's true... but with every day that passes it's increasingly less true. Today's best high-end LLMs are highly optimized towards fact checking themselves and each other. The winning move is to get a report from Claude and have both Kimi K3 and GPT-5.6-Pro adverserially review it. Then synthesize a fixed version with any one of them. Then adverserially review it again in incognito mode.

This sounds like a lot of work, but it takes literally two minutes of effort and it works amazingly well.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#65

Post by nickff »

mullingitover wrote: post #51
nickff wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "the worst thing that could happen is this, a vain and incompetent buffoon installed in the top leadership position." Well, Canada repeatedly elected Justin Trudeau (now departed)... so both countries have made some... interesting decisions...

I don't recall Justin Trudeau making leadership decisions so diabolical and incompetent that Serious People were forced to ask if he was a foreign agent.

I am not sure that there is one example which can meet all your criteria, though there are many examples of stupid things that (almost) everyone agrees he should not have done:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WE_Charity_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC-Lavalin_affair

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aga_Khan_affair

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-43151115

I still believe his most egregious betrayal of voters was his abandoning proportional representation, without providing any justification.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#66

Post by ericmay »

llm_nerd wrote: post #62
ericmay wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Canada negotiated in a quota of dairy products the US could export to Canada tariff free. If the US exceeds this quota, there are tariffs. If it doesn't, there are none. It has never even come close to hitting the quota, much less exceeding it, and the total tariffs ever paid on this has been $0. So you wouldn't take issue with an America quota on assembled motor vehicles, for example, since that wouldn't be a tari…

>So you wouldn't take issue with an America quota on assembled motor vehicles, for example, since that wouldn't be a tariff? Maybe that automaker moves most of its facilities back to the US and now yea you've got one factory making 10,000 cars/year or something and that's under the quota, but you were effectively tariffed anyway because to maintain facilities would breach the quota that was set. Were you outright tar…

> You've returned to this example twice now. And it's interesting. Did you know Canada imports and buys more vehicles from the US than we export to the US?

So what? We could still enact a quota on imports regardless of exports. If anything that would be ideal (ask China, Germany) in some ways. But you can just substitute autos for any other random product - the specific product is, as I know you are well aware, isn't the point.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#67

Post by mthoms »

ericmay wrote: post #38
llm_nerd wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This seems illogical. It is. When Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs, it is of course a tax on Canadians. Though it is also a market inducement, and one of the complaints of the admin is that Canada's retaliatory vehicle tariffs -- literally mirroring the tariffs the US applied to Canada -- caused a 22% drop in imports. > import duties on American products which also must be treated in the same fashion for this ana…

Let's set the framing correctly because I think we're starting off on the wrong foot. The US is not in a desperate need of any product from Canada. Nice to have and super important? Yea. Desperate? No. Not by any stretch of the imagination. > There have been $0 in tariffs on US dairy. The tariffs only come into play when the US imports pass a certain volume So there are tariffs on US dairy... Maybe the US can just sa…

It's amazing how confidently some people speak about a topic they know nothing about.

>Let's set the framing correctly because I think we're starting off on the wrong foot. The US is not in a desperate need of any product from Canada. Nice to have and super important? Yea. Desperate? No. Not by any stretch of the imagination.

Literally yesterday:

“This country desperately needs aluminum,” Trump said. “Selfishly, we need aluminum in this country. We don’t have it. We get it all from Canada for the most part, and we need it badly.”

Note that Trump said this within hours of claiming "we don't need anything from Canada". What else does the country need that Trump has lied about (that you seem to have bought hook, line, and sinker)? Have you considered another source of information?

Well you can start with potash (very much a critical need according to the United States Ambassador to Canada), and oil (according to the US voters), electricity (according to several million American households).

That's not even to mention current and future supplies of critical minerals. Remember how much Trump panicked when China cut off critical minerals? You'd better hope that doesn't happen again.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#68

Post by nba456_ »

cwillu wrote: post #45
ericmay wrote: post #6

> And Canada is taxing you back This seems illogical. You can't simultaneously claim that the US is paying higher prices for Canadian goods because of US-imposed tariffs and then turn around and say only that Americans are paying a tax on buying Canadian goods on Canadian-imposed tariffs. Both countries are either paying higher prices or paying higher taxes. Canada's tariffs must also be viewed as America is taxing C…

If you're going to talk about canadian dairy tariffs, please note that (a) this was originally negotiated by trump the last time he was in office, and (b) the tariff only applies when the total imports exceed a limit, which iirc has never actually been exceeded.

It's never been exceeded because who's going to bother shipping dairy to Canada when you'll be taxed to hell the moment you sell any real volume.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#69

Post by JumpCrisscross »

declan_roberts wrote: post #52

Canada is very unfortunately caught in the trade war between the USA and China. It's pretty easy right now for certain goods to bypass the US tariffs by being transshipped through Canada and enter the USA without tariff because of minimal processing. Chinese steel is a notable example of this. And a lot of Canada's trade MOUs with other countries basically requires they have this special privilege. So there's gonna b…

> Canada is very unfortunately caught in the trade war between the USA and China

Ottawa is fighting Anchluss. The MAGA wing is entirely serious about annexing Canada.

Carney, for a change, is right. Canada is being attacked.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#70

Post by ericmay »

cwillu wrote: post #45
ericmay wrote: post #6

> And Canada is taxing you back This seems illogical. You can't simultaneously claim that the US is paying higher prices for Canadian goods because of US-imposed tariffs and then turn around and say only that Americans are paying a tax on buying Canadian goods on Canadian-imposed tariffs. Both countries are either paying higher prices or paying higher taxes. Canada's tariffs must also be viewed as America is taxing C…

If you're going to talk about canadian dairy tariffs, please note that (a) this was originally negotiated by trump the last time he was in office, and (b) the tariff only applies when the total imports exceed a limit, which iirc has never actually been exceeded.

Someone else shared this article [1] and I was reading a quote I thought was interesting:

  “[Canada] has a large dairy producing constituency that it wants to protect, so they put a cap on imports that can be accessed at a competitive rate. That's what we call a ‘TRQ’ (tariff rate quota),” says Becky Rasdall Vargas, senior vice president of trade and workforce policy at the International Dairy Foods Association. Under the TRQ, Canada accepts a certain amount of dairy products duty-free, without tariffs.

  "Rather, Rasdall Vargas blames the dispute on “a systemic set of failures” by Canadian administrators that intentionally prevent American dairy exports from reaching the import cap. These protectionist measures are intended to support Canadian dairy farmers. One rule, for example, requires that Canadian dairy processors be the primary recipients of American dairy products.

  “If you’re a U.S. exporter, you're going to want to sell to your customers, not to a competitor,” she says. “Another one is that retailers aren't eligible to obtain an import license quota in Canada. There are layers upon layers of rules that ultimately prevent U.S. exporters from being able to fill those quotas.”
So I'm not sure the quota is as straightforward as many folks are making it out to be and there's more nuance there. This, assuming it is accurate, is really interesting and helps explain why US producers don't even meet the quota that was set.

[1] https://www.farmprogress.com/farm-policy/the-real-story-behi...

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