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OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

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Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#61

Post by varispeed »

petcat wrote: post #6
varispeed wrote: post #4

Why they don't research how to make their own RAM and they have to buy it from the common market? They should GTFO with this crap. Create barriers to computing for ordinary people while milking businesses for tokens.

Building a custom-designed ASIC is much easier than producing state of the art memory chips. There's a reason why Micron and Nvidia are the crown jewels of American technology right now and for the foreseeable future.

That doesn't excuse them from wrecking the market for ordinary person.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#62

Post by simianwords »

mathisfun123 wrote: post #46
anthonypasq wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI just dropped the price of Luna by 80% and Sol by 20-30%

and amazon shipping used to be free without prime, and uber used to be cheaper than taxis, and airbnb used to be cheaper than hotels. you really don't get it?

almost every pure tech commodity has gone down in price

- gpus

- retail computers

- laptops

- ~gpu~ appliances like washing machines

- cloud computing

i think you don't get how economy usually works in tech

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#63

Post by hypfer »

jazzyjackson wrote: post #57
dgellow wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is just so much downward pressure on token price, from every direction. We would need a completely new understanding of economics to explain why the price shouldn’t go down. Or market collusion/regulatory manipulation.

Maybe 1000s of tokens per second unlocks realtime robotic decision making, and now every robot needs to continuously stream tokens to and from the cloud to operate. That could 1000x demand overnight, just to speculate :)

Think about the agents buying computers for their agents. /s

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#64

Post by chris_money202 »

petcat wrote: post #6
varispeed wrote: post #4

Why they don't research how to make their own RAM and they have to buy it from the common market? They should GTFO with this crap. Create barriers to computing for ordinary people while milking businesses for tokens.

Building a custom-designed ASIC is much easier than producing state of the art memory chips. There's a reason why Micron and Nvidia are the crown jewels of American technology right now and for the foreseeable future.

Nvidia buys the memory it uses on its GPUs, same as all other ASICs.

To give some context, Intel started making DRAM, I think they were actually the company that came up with modern memory techniques. They exited the market and pursued a more lucrative moat with CPUs.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#65

Post by varispeed »

datakan wrote: post #8
varispeed wrote: post #4

Why they don't research how to make their own RAM and they have to buy it from the common market? They should GTFO with this crap. Create barriers to computing for ordinary people while milking businesses for tokens.

People keep saying stuff like this without understanding what it takes to make RAM. It's one of, if not the most, heavily patented things in the world. The second you dip your toes into those waters the lawsuits begin. If somehow you get around the patent issues, you're now faced with huge research and development costs, fabs to build, processes to sort out and all of that has very high failure rates. Last time I che…

Yes, it is difficult, but shafting working class is easy, therefor it is okay.

If the rich decided to buy all drinking water, you would probably be saying that's okay, making water is difficult, shortly before dying.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#66

Post by Eridrus »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #30

Well Sam Altman finally has built a moat against Chinese open weight AI. Well done. But what will this mean for Cerebras? I remember when Tesla was building its own inference chips, and after about 2 years and billions spent, the whole effort was scuttled b/c they simply could not keep up with the iteration and R&D cycles of dedicated chip companies. I suspect the same will be the case with OpenAI vs Cerebras + Nvidi…

Cerebras is targeting a distinctly different point on the cost/latency curve. They are betting that there will be some high value applications where latency and not just throughput is super important.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#67

Post by jacquesm »

jazzyjackson wrote: post #57
dgellow wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is just so much downward pressure on token price, from every direction. We would need a completely new understanding of economics to explain why the price shouldn’t go down. Or market collusion/regulatory manipulation.

Maybe 1000s of tokens per second unlocks realtime robotic decision making, and now every robot needs to continuously stream tokens to and from the cloud to operate. That could 1000x demand overnight, just to speculate :)

I would very much like it if anything that moves with appreciable mass is governed locally just in case the link drops and/or latency suddenly goes up. Motion is very unforgiving and accidents will happen if that's not taken into account.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#69

Post by datakan »

chris_money202 wrote: post #47
datakan wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep saying stuff like this without understanding what it takes to make RAM. It's one of, if not the most, heavily patented things in the world. The second you dip your toes into those waters the lawsuits begin. If somehow you get around the patent issues, you're now faced with huge research and development costs, fabs to build, processes to sort out and all of that has very high failure rates. Last time I che…

RAM chips are not hard to produce compared to many other types of semiconductors; Intel started in the memory game and left because the margins weren't great and they were going to fold. The failure rates on these chips are actually very tolerable; you can have a very bad yield and still have a viable chip due to things like ECC.

Intel entered the memory space because they partnered with Micron. They left the memory space when Micron pulled out of the partnership.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#70

Post by goodmythical »

jrflo wrote: post #31
anthonypasq wrote: post #3

Continued hardware improvements really make it hard for me to believe token prices will not continue to plummet.

This may just be a classic case of Jevons paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox In short, better hardware will drive down token cost in the near-term, but will drive up the demand for tokens as it gets cheap enough for other sectors to start to use it heavily. It comes from steam engines where economists originally thought that coal demand would plummet with more efficient engines, but it actually jus…

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