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Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

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Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#61
post #57
post #55

> including the extension of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission surveillance and whistleblower program, investor due diligence reform, and dedicated entrepreneurship education interventions Wasn't the SEC essentially gutted to the point it's basically toothless right now?

The SpaceX IPO is perhaps the latest and most damning outcome of that gutting.

Seems the current SEC head is a moron. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/sec-chair-defends-...

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m really not trying to virtue signal. There’s a lot more nuance to my reasoning to leave the traditional VC game. All of them led me to declaring it fundamentally incompatible with my world view. Which then led me to my current path of attempting to form a syndicate of like-minded individuals. But this study validates a lot of feelings I’ve had over the last several months. There’s a ton of people that never get ca…

Oh, I did not take it as virtue signaling at all! I do actually admire you for looking at a dirty game and saying "I will not play this, I will find a better way." If I ever win the lottery, I'm going to create the Joseph Welch Foundation. The foundation will give monetary awards to people who have demonstrably pushed back against corruption, lies, and bullshit. For those who don't recognize the name, Joseph Welch is…

> If I ever win the lottery, I'm going to create the Joseph Welch Foundation. The foundation will give monetary awards to people who have demonstrably pushed back against corruption, lies, and bullshit.

If you do that, given enough time, you will be awarding people that learnt how to game the award. Back to corruption, lies and bullshit.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#63
post #3

A lot of 'numbers' startups cite are basically fake I think. Like if someone says we have this many users as a statement to TechCrunch you have no idea what they are actually calculating But there is a clear line that gets crossed if you start actually making a database of millions of synthetic users and that's what happened with 'Frank' that sold to JP Morgan and eventually the founder was prosecuted

Internet being full of bots, I usually do the s/users/bots/ automatically in my mind.

Even some users are just bots... (At least their behavior is/are)

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#64
post #61
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The SpaceX IPO is perhaps the latest and most damning outcome of that gutting.

Seems the current SEC head is a moron. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/sec-chair-defends-...

I am torn on this issue, because I would love to disincentivize short-term thinking at the executive level, and I initially considered this a decent move in that regard.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is nontraditional? Seems like it could be even more rife with fraud with lower oversight.

Probably a bad qualifier. Maybe non-VC would have been better. Myself and my co-founder are trying to raise via a syndicate of like-minded investors/angels in lieue of the "traditional" VC dance.

How is that going? I ask because just recently I read a post from someone I know who is getting out of the angel investing game. Her primary complaint is that in a couple early stage investments she made that then were successful enough to go on to a VC series round that early angel investors got shafted. That is, there was a strong desire from VCs to "clean up the cap table" and buy out early stage angels just as the business was starting to accelerate. There was some definite bitterness in her tone, feeling like she went out on a limb for some founders before the business was proven out, and then got dumped once the deeper pockets came along.

I don't know the details of her situation, what else she could have done to protect her investments, or how common an experience that was, but there were many comments in agreement under her post, so I'm just curious if it's widespread.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#66
post #44

"Entrepreneurs construct, perform, and protect illusory appearances (façades) that externally project high-growth performance to audiences while masking ventures’ actual underperformance." This would accurately describe a some of the startups I've worked at. ;-P

This is literally the American way.

Everyone does this at every level, from Execs down to middle managers, for every possible metric.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#67
I see the title was changed; I agree with the new title (it’s much clearer and less inflammatory). I tend to use the original title by default, if it fits length requirements.

My thinking is that the post-ZIRP era, with its more limited funding, will probably require a lot more honesty, transparency, and vetting from founders. “Casting a wide net” makes more sense when funding comes cheap and easy.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#68
post #43

Isn't venture capital just playing along too, though? They also benefit from all the myth making and hype storms, even if they are technically getting defrauded while funding it. They could actually audit the companies they invest in, and go after the frauds. The Nikola example is a great one--if anyone had looked carefully behind the marketing the fraud should have been obvious. But by and large they don't, really.…

ZIRP made it unprofitable to chase down fraud; money was too cheap and attention too scarce. We’ve been in a tightening cycle for a while now, but many still held out hope for another drop in interest rates. Now that rates are going crazy, I suspect we’ll see a shift to much tighter vetting and ongoing monitoring.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#69
The post-ZIRP observation resonates. Building a bootstrapped SaaS in Europe right now, I've noticed investors increasingly ask for verified metrics not just screenshots, but API-connected dashboards. It's almost like the market is self-correcting by making due diligence cheaper to do properly.

The real problem with façading is the selection effect downstream: founders who inflate metrics attract investors who expect inflation, creating a system where honesty becomes a competitive disadvantage. You end up filtering out exactly the people you'd want on your cap table.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#70

“Our theoretical framework captures how entrepreneurs facing minor, wide, and extreme expectation-reality gaps engage in evermore sophisticated efforts to detach the venture’s externally projected appearance from its actual operational reality.” Look, I’m not promoting fraud at all, but having been doing seed raising for the last eight months, there have been many times where I thought the only way to compete was by…

My understanding so far is that as humans we get bounded by our emotions, morals, incentives and fears. On the other hand you are competing against capitalism that tries to use any possible means to make profits. It treads along every possible path of whats not completely illegal. What benefits it is that either the laws are not yet defined to cover those situations or they are hazy enough that there is an escape hatch. You name any big company and they have gone through the path of doing something that was illegal or questioned. Just like critical mass or escape velocity, if you are big enough you get through the hurdles or otherwise you get stuck and make a good topic in some ones paper like this.
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