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Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

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Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#61

Post by yogthos »

pishpash wrote: post #48
yogthos wrote: post #33

Doctorow has consistently one of the most sober takes on AI in my opinion. He acknowledges that we are in a bubble right now, but also understands that underlying tech has actual merit to it. And he does a good job explaining how the issues people project onto this technology isn't inherent to it, but rather stems from capitalist relations in our society.

Aren't those completely obviously points?

I see a lot of people struggling with them every day. Some people can't see that there's a bubble and think we're on a cusp of AGI. Others can't acknowledge that this tech has merit outside the hype. A lot of people seem to be at either one extreme of the spectrum or the other.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#63

Post by simianwords »

pishpash wrote: post #50
ACCount37 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or doesn't. "The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions." And people who don't put their money where their mouth is? The track record gets so much worse.

So far every single one has popped. The record isn't particularly good for "this time is different".

Not really. Not everything is a bubble. Cloud computing is not a bubble. And screaming “it’s a bubble” 10 times is clinically insane.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#65

Post by mmooss »

jonahx wrote: post #22
mmooss wrote: post #7

> This is a political act of resistance. Margaret Thatcher's motto, after all, was "There is no alternative," by which she meant, "Stop trying to think of alternatives." The bully's trick is to present your defeat as a fait accompli: "Resistance is futile." More broadly, that trick is the most effective and important today: No matter the issue, people - including on HN - will tell you how powerless they are and how p…

> Until people believe, nothing will change. I'm with you here. > When they believe, everything will change. Taken literally, this is absurd. Belief might be necessary for change, but it's not sufficient! > That's why there is so much impetus toward despair. Sometimes people really are in hopeless situations. It seems cruel to blame their despair on not believing enough.

> Sometimes people really are in hopeless situations.

The fight for despair is surreal; at least people believe they can really be hopeless and won't let anyone stop them.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#66

Post by mmooss »

skybrian wrote: post #11
mmooss wrote: post #7

> This is a political act of resistance. Margaret Thatcher's motto, after all, was "There is no alternative," by which she meant, "Stop trying to think of alternatives." The bully's trick is to present your defeat as a fait accompli: "Resistance is futile." More broadly, that trick is the most effective and important today: No matter the issue, people - including on HN - will tell you how powerless they are and how p…

I don't find empty platitudes like "you can just do things" all that inspiring. I prefer seeing a specific example of something you could do and an explanation about why it might help.

> I prefer seeing a specific example of something you could do and an explanation about why it might help.

Great! Come up with an example!

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#67

Post by mmooss »

fragmede wrote: post #37
mmooss wrote: post #7

> This is a political act of resistance. Margaret Thatcher's motto, after all, was "There is no alternative," by which she meant, "Stop trying to think of alternatives." The bully's trick is to present your defeat as a fait accompli: "Resistance is futile." More broadly, that trick is the most effective and important today: No matter the issue, people - including on HN - will tell you how powerless they are and how p…

The only way out for climate change is through. While we're doing crazy things like data centers in space, we "just" have to capture CO2 from the air and store it. While that will take some revolutionary breakthroughs in materials science and engineering, all we can do is dump money into those areas and hope they pan out. And despair a little less.

We can reduce climte change-causing emissions. We could do it dramatically if we wanted. The only thing stopping us is that it's hopeless.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#68

Post by shinryuu »

dominotw wrote: post #44
Animats wrote: post #23

(2025) Doctorow has a book-length version of this, "The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI", which I just read. It's not one of his better works. It's all conventional anti-AI wisdom. Too much of it is about the impact of AI on the punditry and writing industries. I expected better from Doctorow. I would have expected more focus on the relationship between AI and power. Doctorow has been down that road in his f…

is there any good ai book worth reading ? I dont mean things discussing building a tranformer or whatever . I mean like high level ones.

Heard good things of Empire of AI By Karen Hao

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#69

Post by danaris »

skybrian wrote: post #11
mmooss wrote: post #7

> This is a political act of resistance. Margaret Thatcher's motto, after all, was "There is no alternative," by which she meant, "Stop trying to think of alternatives." The bully's trick is to present your defeat as a fait accompli: "Resistance is futile." More broadly, that trick is the most effective and important today: No matter the issue, people - including on HN - will tell you how powerless they are and how p…

I don't find empty platitudes like "you can just do things" all that inspiring. I prefer seeing a specific example of something you could do and an explanation about why it might help.

I mean, that's an extremely broad request.

You can install solar panels on your house, and a heat pump. This will help reduce fossil fuel energy usage.

You can self-host Mastodon and help move your friends and family members still using Xitter onto it. This will help reduce the support being given to fascist oligarchs.

You can find a local soup kitchen, or animal shelter, or library, and volunteer some of your time there. This will help provide for people and animals without other support.

Trying to do something bigger than that is going to require more people, and may require resources you don't have; I don't know your situation. You haven't really given anyone much to work with in giving you examples, and the post you're replying to a) isn't really giving "empty platitudes", and b) is talking very broadly about problems in the abstract, so there's not much guidance there as to what kind of "something you could do" you're looking for.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#70

Post by danaris »

aliclark wrote: post #14

I'm not sure his argument holds that foundational models will no longer function after the bubble pops. There's plenty of open weight models that are competitive which are more likely to exist in a world with abundant cheap GPUs.

In addition to what wrs said, it's true that the foundation models won't necessarily stop working after the bubble pops...but if new training isn't happening, then they're not getting updated.

Day 1, that's not going to matter much.

Day 30, it's barely going to be noticeable.

Day 365, you're going to be able to tell that you're using an outdated model—whether you're using it for general world-knowledge stuff, or for coding.

Day 1826 (ie, Year 5), they're going to still have some uses, but they'll be so out of date that they'll be actively detrimental in many areas.

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