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Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

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Re: Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

#61
post #51
post #8

To stay near the frontier of AI without being subject to the discretion of foreign countries the EU has to stay near the frontier of R&D themselves. Even if they can get around ITAR now and self-host, they would be stuck with having to repeatedly negotiate permission to use each new advance. If they do relax regulation (especially on energy generation) sufficiently to unleash the continent's big brained boffins and e…

I don't think ITAR has anything to do with any of this.

The export control directives on Anthropic are under the authority of the Arms Export Control Act. The International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) implement the AECA for commercial exports, including the "technical data" under control. This story is about circumventing ITAR directives.

Re: Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

#62

To be honest, as much as people complain about EU regulations and bureaucracy, at least they are highly predictable. Every relevant piece of regulation, like the GDPR and the AI Act, was probably more than five years in the making and then added another year or two to take effect. If I were a frontier lab with a billion-dollar investment under my belt, I wouldn't want to operate in a regulatory environment with the s…

EU regulation is not the problem, it's the national governments. They are the ones who create red tape and high taxation almost every step of the way, and create years of delays when even one crazy person complains.

[deleted]

Re: Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

#64
post #8

To stay near the frontier of AI without being subject to the discretion of foreign countries the EU has to stay near the frontier of R&D themselves. Even if they can get around ITAR now and self-host, they would be stuck with having to repeatedly negotiate permission to use each new advance. If they do relax regulation (especially on energy generation) sufficiently to unleash the continent's big brained boffins and e…

or, we could just wait a hot second, get GPU and associated hardware over the 30% utilization mark, develop a fault tolerance strategy that recovers more useful work, and spend a bit more time researching how models actually converge. 50% savings on training time would mean even more energy savings because of the add-on effects of cooling.

this spending of billions just to get a 4 month lead, without even trying to invest in getting this stuff to run properly is wasteful to the point of insanity. I don't think it's at all productive to chide people for not wanting to dump their resources into a black hole.

it seems pretty clear that the investors and the AI companies _like_ to throw around big GW numbers. it gives them a moat, and it fuels the bubble.

Re: Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

#65
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that you can turn gas plants on and off very quickly, and they can run at any time of day. That makes them excellent suppliers for peak demand. For much of the year, the evening peak occurs when the sun is not shining and the winds have died down, so renewables are not viable.

Renewables can be combined with storage technologies such as batteries, so the syllogism "no generation during Dunkelflaute, but need reliablye generation -> renewables not viable" is too simple. My question is about whether renewables with storage technologies are a viable replacement for the gas power plants.

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Re: Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

#66
post #8

To stay near the frontier of AI without being subject to the discretion of foreign countries the EU has to stay near the frontier of R&D themselves. Even if they can get around ITAR now and self-host, they would be stuck with having to repeatedly negotiate permission to use each new advance. If they do relax regulation (especially on energy generation) sufficiently to unleash the continent's big brained boffins and e…

What is it that makes gas power plants so much more attractive than renewable energy? From what I heard, it's a bit easier to build them very fast and they reliably produce energy on demand (as long as gas is available of course). But I imaging one could replicate this using solar/wind and storage units. I could imagine that the challenge is that that having enough solar panels for a few gigawatts of consumption is h…

You can build gas power plants on site at your data center and don’t have to wait for the grid to be upgraded. In the long run gas will be replaced by cheaper renewables

Re: Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

#67
post #8

To stay near the frontier of AI without being subject to the discretion of foreign countries the EU has to stay near the frontier of R&D themselves. Even if they can get around ITAR now and self-host, they would be stuck with having to repeatedly negotiate permission to use each new advance. If they do relax regulation (especially on energy generation) sufficiently to unleash the continent's big brained boffins and e…

> If they do relax regulation (especially on energy generation) sufficiently to unleash the continent's big brained boffins and entrepreneurs on AI Capital. Capital, capital, capital. The EU is still not a single unified economy and capital markets remains semi-sovereign. Every Euro that goes out of (eg.) a Dutch taxpayer's pocket into an (eg.) German domiciled competitor gets pushed back against by national competit…

Okay. Lemme ask you a simple question: why does Dario Amodei live in the United States? Why do his parents live here? What happened?

It's not the first time in recent history frontier technology has been developed and commercialized, before any of this "capital" you are talking about really existed. That's the easy part (print money). The hard part is, taking leadership to convince the citizens of a place to be... what? Do you know?

Re: Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

#69
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that you can turn gas plants on and off very quickly, and they can run at any time of day. That makes them excellent suppliers for peak demand. For much of the year, the evening peak occurs when the sun is not shining and the winds have died down, so renewables are not viable.

Renewables can be combined with storage technologies such as batteries, so the syllogism "no generation during Dunkelflaute, but need reliablye generation -> renewables not viable" is too simple. My question is about whether renewables with storage technologies are a viable replacement for the gas power plants.

There are many facets of “viability”: technical, economic, political. There is obviously some reason why new gas plants are being built instead of renewables with storage.

Re: Austria Lobbies EU to Host Anthropic After US Access Curbs

#70
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't go on random personalist whims (so far!), but they also tend to be much less specific in a way that can frustrate US businesses. The GDPR definition of "personal data" is just a couple of lines long; the California definition of "personal information" lists out twelve categories, one of which is "sensitive personal information" with eight more categories.

There's a fundamentally different definition of how laws are supposed to work. EU law isn't a list of checkboxes that you can technically check while going counter to the spirit, it is a philosophical direction, the details of following it are up to you. The spirit matters, not the letter. > When interpreting EU law, the CJEU pays particular attention to the aim and purpose of EU law (teleological interpretation), ra…

If I was a business owner I’d rather operate under laws that don’t have highly ambiguous definitions of terms that introduces extra risk that is unnecessary in other places.
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