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Can China build its own ASML?

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Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#61

Post by joe_mamba »

guiraldelli wrote: post #48
joe_mamba wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Makes you wonder why the USA hasn't built one? They basically (almost) did. In 2013 ASML bought US Cymer(the maker of EUV light sources) and in 2001 ASML acquired the US-based lithography equipment manufacturer Silicon Valley Group (SVG) after it had encountered liquidity issues. Basically, the US had everything needed, the EUV light sources and lithography machines, just spread over different companies facing finan…

"Most of [IP of ASML] comes from US" is an extremely generous sentence. It is true those companies you referred to were bought and their IP has helped ASML in _EUV_, but they had 20 years of European IP before that, all related other parts of the lithography machine (and not EUV) that made ASML the company it is. If you think that complexity is only in (light) source for EUV (is it already profitable for ASML, by the…

> but they had 20 years of European IP before that, all related other parts of the lithography machine (and not EUV) that made ASML the company it is.

Was any of that 20 year old European DUV lithography machine IP superior to the IP from the other DUV champions, Canon and Nikon?

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#62

Post by TFNA »

lambdaone wrote: post #46
realusername wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they are onto something, language learning is quickly shifting into a hobby category (I don't mean it negatively)

The problem with not learning languages is that it restricts you to computer-mediated communication. If you learn other languages than your own, even at a fairly basic level, there is a whole world of social interaction and culture out there that just can't be accessed with a machine in the way. This isn't to say that automated translation is bad, I use it extensively, but not all interaction worth having is online.

The expectation is that AI translation will also become quasi-realtime, so for in-person interactions, too.

Many cultures will probably much rather interact with a foreigner speaking proficient AI translation, than a language-learner speaking with a poor accent and constant grammatical imperfections. Go to the Netherlands now as a Dutch learner who hasn't reached B2 level, for example, and local people won't like it, it just wastes their time compared to using English.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#63

Post by throwaw12 »

I wholeheartedly wish China achieves it sooner.

US sanctioning GPUs to China, then blocking access to latest SOTA models will impact everyone in the world negatively.

We need competition, Europe is not an option anymore, hopefully Chinese labs will keep open sourcing SOTA models

Based on the trend, if China wins, everyone benefits, if US wins, only Americans will benefit and everyone else will suffer

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#65

Post by throwaw12 »

ilovecake1984 wrote: post #27
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #3

The answer is, of course, yes. What is there to stop them? Sure, it's difficult -- but where there's a will, and where the resources of China are involved, there is most assuredly a way. I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.

Their cars and phones are still second rate. They are, however, cheap enough to be good value.

> Their cars and phones are still second rate

What have you tried so far on a daily basis to say this?

Have you tried latest Huawei models?

By the way, Foxconn makes iPhones, does it count as Chinese quality or not?

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#66

Post by Gud »

toxicunderGroov wrote: post #59
chvid wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If history is a guide, the Dutch will do what the US asks of them.

Sadly yes, wish we'd just told them to fuck off and make a deal with China, they are the future - but we seem to be very scared of daddy.

Why, so China can copy the technology and produce their one 5 years later?

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#67

Post by tim333 »

joe_mamba wrote: post #26
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #3

The answer is, of course, yes. What is there to stop them? Sure, it's difficult -- but where there's a will, and where the resources of China are involved, there is most assuredly a way. I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.

>The answer is, of course, yes. No, not in this case. > I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Any country can make cars and phones now if they REALLY want to, they just don't because they wouldn't be competitive on the global market at performance and at scale. But not anyone can just make an EUV machine if they want to. Becoming a leader in commodity white goods like a p…

>China doesn't have a Zeiss

It has the Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics (CIOMP)

Founded 1952. One of its things:

>4-Metre Silicon Carbide (SiC) Mirror: CIOMP successfully manufactured the world's largest single-piece Silicon Carbide mirror blank. It provides the optical backbone for high-resolution space telescope imaging systems

Apparently carbide mirrors are used for EUV lithography.

Nature article + pic of mirror https://www.nature.com/articles/s41377-022-01050-w

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#68

Post by toxicunderGroov »

Gud wrote: post #66
toxicunderGroov wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly yes, wish we'd just told them to fuck off and make a deal with China, they are the future - but we seem to be very scared of daddy.

Why, so China can copy the technology and produce their one 5 years later?

Its not impossible but If it was that easy the Americans and Taiwanese would have already done that.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#69

Post by orwin »

rich_sasha wrote: post #45

As many comments say, of course they can . They are an illiberal country, very good at semi-centrallised command, semi market economy. They have shown a number of areas where through determination and massive central effort they bridged enormous gaps. Chinese cars are already much better than a lot of established tech, not to mention solar, batteries etc. I do however wonder how long China can afford to pay the price…

> But subsidizing with what? They don't have a magic money tree.

They do though. The advantage of state capitalism is that at anytime you can switch from a fully capitalist economy, where the market is everywhere save the family cell, to a statist economy where the state decides what goes where, to anything in between. If the CCP says 'retirement won't be paid in RMB but in foodstuffs for everyone, and the funds are reappropriated', they kill their debt.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#70

Post by rich_sasha »

orwin wrote: post #69
rich_sasha wrote: post #45

As many comments say, of course they can . They are an illiberal country, very good at semi-centrallised command, semi market economy. They have shown a number of areas where through determination and massive central effort they bridged enormous gaps. Chinese cars are already much better than a lot of established tech, not to mention solar, batteries etc. I do however wonder how long China can afford to pay the price…

> But subsidizing with what? They don't have a magic money tree. They do though. The advantage of state capitalism is that at anytime you can switch from a fully capitalist economy, where the market is everywhere save the family cell, to a statist economy where the state decides what goes where, to anything in between. If the CCP says 'retirement won't be paid in RMB but in foodstuffs for everyone, and the funds are…

Right - but means of production can't be created and destroyed from nothing. Proper centrally planned economies all thought it could and failed.

China is much more free at moving them from one place to another, in particular allocating them differently to the hedonistic preferences of their citizens.

But it's still only moving not creating. For now it seems, the thing that needs to give is the workers' consumption. What else? No idea.

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