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SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

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Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#61

Even if it drops to 1/2 its IPO price ($855B valuation) that still massively overpaying for it. What do they think is gonna come from this SpaceX + Twitter + XAi + Cursor amalgamation? Sexbot agents vibe coding on Mars?

The plan is simply for insiders to offload their bags (overvalued shares) to retail investors, like the folk who frequent the wallstreetbets subreddit and do all their “investing” on Robinhood. This speaks to the larger trend of the lower and middle class apparently giving up on any plans to retire- and it’s understandable as the federal minimum wage has never been so disconnected from the cost of living, plus inflat…

Gambling has always been a mechanism for transferring money from the poor to the rich. Platforms like Robin Hood just finished transforming the entirety of the stock market into a casino that preys on the poor (oh the irony about the company's name).

True investing, which in theory could be done even with Robin Hood, is boring and incompatible with gamification. Warren Buffett famously said that the reason people don't often become rich with stocks is because nobody wants to get rich slowly.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#62
post #11

SpaceX + Twitter + XAi + Cursor is the perfect combo to collect government contracts. You want exposure in social media? Use Twitter. Civil servants want AI? Use Grok. Developers want AI? Use Cursor. All space heading business? Contact SpaceX. All under the polished (!), totally unblemished (!) PR image of Musk. Someone please wake me up if this is a fever dream.

I think this has been Musk's play for more than a decade. Except the Twitter purchase, which was just weird. It's possible the AI play is for data center subsidies/tax breaks. TBC didn't go too well in terms of California rail expansion contracts, I think, but perhaps he can get some Pentagon money for building military DCs.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#64

Even if it drops to 1/2 its IPO price ($855B valuation) that still massively overpaying for it. What do they think is gonna come from this SpaceX + Twitter + XAi + Cursor amalgamation? Sexbot agents vibe coding on Mars?

The plan is simply for insiders to offload their bags (overvalued shares) to retail investors, like the folk who frequent the wallstreetbets subreddit and do all their “investing” on Robinhood. This speaks to the larger trend of the lower and middle class apparently giving up on any plans to retire- and it’s understandable as the federal minimum wage has never been so disconnected from the cost of living, plus inflat…

> Now for anyone giving Robinhood the benefit of the doubt- their evil was (I think) absolutely confirmed when they unveiled a new feature- you can now trade OPTIONS with your retirement account.

While I think robinhood has done some shady practices, this isn't one. I can trade options in a Fidelity IRA just as well.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#65
post #11

SpaceX + Twitter + XAi + Cursor is the perfect combo to collect government contracts. You want exposure in social media? Use Twitter. Civil servants want AI? Use Grok. Developers want AI? Use Cursor. All space heading business? Contact SpaceX. All under the polished (!), totally unblemished (!) PR image of Musk. Someone please wake me up if this is a fever dream.

I think this has been Musk's play for more than a decade. Except the Twitter purchase, which was just weird. It's possible the AI play is for data center subsidies/tax breaks. TBC didn't go too well in terms of California rail expansion contracts, I think, but perhaps he can get some Pentagon money for building military DCs.

[dead]

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's the point of being vertically integrated if they're just going to rent out their compute ( https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/ai-startup-re... ). This signals to me they don't have an internal use for it

It signals to me that they like money and people are willing to give it to them at unprecedented levels, and probably still have plenty of capacity for themselves afterwards. Why would you not accept billions of dollars per month?

they have a healthy datacenter business. Does that justify their valuation?

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#68

This is pretty normal for tech stocks. Most have a big pop on the first few days of IPO and then they drop. After 180 days, insiders can start selling shares so there's another drop around that time due to a higher supply for shares on the sell side.

It's Probably Overpriced

Most stocks are. The price to earnings ratio almost never justifies the value.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's the point of being vertically integrated if they're just going to rent out their compute ( https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/ai-startup-re... ). This signals to me they don't have an internal use for it

You could say the same about AWS circa 2011 though.

It's the reverse. The purpose of AWS was in 2011 was financial internal Amazon use. They had never invested in proper communication between the (many) parts of the Amazon webstore so everything was ad-hoc (like it still is in essentially every other company). If the website talked to an (internal) payment provider, that was one protocol. Another internal payment provider? Different protocol. Mail customers? SMTP (and not transactional like now, unless your website code implemented the transactional part).

That's what the first version of AWS was like. A standard set of interfaces. (you offer compute to the company? You implement these methods. You offer payment? You implement these methods. You offer ... etc)

They hadn't (yet) settled on a single RPC method but that's what it was. Then, as a financial innovation they started offering as many as possible to outside parties so they could use that money to pay for buildouts without loans, and a tax rebate on top. That's how AWS came to be. It had quite a few uses: it would simplify the amazon website, but most of all: it would allow for financial innovation in hosting the website (people still don't understand that when using AWS they what they are fundamentally doing is give Amazon better interest rates on loans to build datacenter hosting for their other activities. People still don't understand that the core of Amazon is not selling, is not AWS, it is financial innovation).

It was very much not a company selling to itself because it couldn't find outside buyers. It was a company selling to outsiders screaming to buy their internal products so the internal products would essentially be built for free and Uncle Sam would even provide tax rebates for building them (think about it: without AWS, Amazon datacenters are for internal use and tax is due on the equipment. With AWS Amazon datacenters are built to rent out and you can deduct any spend on building them ... smart, no?)

(that's also how Google cloud came to be, with very different emphasis and timeline)

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