SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch • Hacker News Board

Re: SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch

#61

Post by rlt » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 2:51 AM UTC

ralfd wrote: post #41

SpaceX will swing wildly in future, also exploding/successful Starship flights and enthusiasm for moon landing/Artemis missions.

If the price moves down when a Starship test flight doesn't achieve all objectives that's probably a good opportunity to buy. Many people think "rocket go boom, must be bad" but to some extent it's expected during the development phase. They get more useful data about where the limits are when it doesn't work.

Of course there's limits to that, but SpaceX has a lot of cash to absorb failures, unlike in the early days.

Re: SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch

#62

Post by manwithopinions » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 4:05 AM UTC

rlt wrote: post #51

bryanlarsen wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is true, but silly. SpaceX's rocket business is currently a $4B/year business. SpaceX's $2T valuation has nothing to do with launching rockets, a little bit to do with being an ISP and a lot to do with AI hype.

The $2T valuation definitely depends on Starship working well. Orbital data centers have no chance of being profitable otherwise.

The $2T doesn’t depend on anything to do with space. People are investing in Elon, not any specific product or technology. Hence his roll up of X and Xai into SpaceX and Tesla soon too. SpaceX is The Elon Company, not space or cars or AI.

And anyway, orbital data centers have no chance. They’re just like the Mars colony, an Elon boondoggle.

Re: SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch

#63

Post by manwithopinions » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #42

Still above the actual IPO price of 135. It's below where it opened trading on the first day which I guess is what the editorialised headline is supposed to mean. Trading opened at about 160 on the 12th and is about 155 now. Such fluctuations don't really mean much.

First trade was exactly $150. The indicated price was falling from around $170 and then when it hit $150 the market opened.

Re: SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch

#64

Post by general1465 » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 5:46 AM UTC

budman1 wrote: post #54

lousken wrote: post #31

why would you even invest into this bubble

because i am smarter than the next guy and will know when to get out.

Last words before posting loss porn on r/wsb

Re: SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch

#65

Post by fatata123 » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 10:36 AM UTC

ralfd wrote: post #39

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook was profitable

SpaceX is too with the Anthropic/Google deal

[dead]

Re: SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch

#66

Post by verzali » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 11:34 AM UTC

manwithopinions wrote: post #62

rlt wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The $2T valuation definitely depends on Starship working well. Orbital data centers have no chance of being profitable otherwise.

The $2T doesn’t depend on anything to do with space. People are investing in Elon, not any specific product or technology. Hence his roll up of X and Xai into SpaceX and Tesla soon too. SpaceX is The Elon Company, not space or cars or AI. And anyway, orbital data centers have no chance. They’re just like the Mars colony, an Elon boondoggle.

Feels like a bad bet. People are not immortal. What happens if he gets hit by a bus or has a heart attack?

Re: SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch

#67

Post by illiac786 » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 4:27 PM UTC

verzali wrote: post #66

manwithopinions wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The $2T doesn’t depend on anything to do with space. People are investing in Elon, not any specific product or technology. Hence his roll up of X and Xai into SpaceX and Tesla soon too. SpaceX is The Elon Company, not space or cars or AI. And anyway, orbital data centers have no chance. They’re just like the Mars colony, an Elon boondoggle.

Feels like a bad bet. People are not immortal. What happens if he gets hit by a bus or has a heart attack?

It’s emotional, people like to have someone to believe in, who turns off their brains a bit. So annoying these pesky brains, always whispering rational things to do. So much more comfortable to just blindly trust into someone.

Funny how the above absolutely does not apply at the local scale. The same people blindly trusting Elon probably don’t trust their neighbors to even hold a parcel for them.

Re: SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch

#68

Post by tombert » Tue, Jun 23, 2026, 5:12 PM UTC

ifwinterco wrote: post #24

tombert wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was insane to me that a company that had less than thirty-billion in revenue was valued at more than a trillion. I'm not sure how the People in Charge didn't call bullshit.

The way exponential maths works, if a company really can grow at (for example) 10% per annum then it can grow into what looks initially like a very high PE multiple on current earnings surprisingly quickly. This is why people sometimes use forward P/E but that does have the obvious drawback of the denominator not actually existing yet. However with SpaceX the valuation is extreme and also can they grow at that rate f…

Reading their IPO prospectus seemed to imply that they planned on getting 100% of the entire AI market.

Considering how far behind Grok is (revenue-wise, but also quality-wise [1]), that seems very unlikely to me, and while this might be overly optimistic I think there's a chance that with SpaceX being public, Elon's drug addiction and pathological lying might catch up with him.

[1] Disclaimer, I've only used the free version of Grok. Maybe the paid one is great but I doubt it's better than Claude or OpenAI and I don't want to give Elon money since he seems to have done a pretty good job buying the executive branch with it.