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Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

theguardian.com

61–70 of 161 posts

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#61
post #58
post #14

An interesting variant of "privatise the profits, socialise the losses" played wholly in the private sector capital investment space. "When you're rich they let you" is big in this because a functional board of a company about to be vested with a massive debt overhang from a serial offender (X and xAI) would surely have said "could we NOT" about this and the whole model including A and B class voting shares suggests…

If SpaceX succeeds, the gains will go to the same people who will bear the losses if it doesn’t. Both the gains and losses are privatized. The consumer/ad tech bias of HN is really showing. The app I use to share photos of my kids with my elderly relatives is worth $1.45 trillion, but somehow companies that make freaking EVs, robots, and rocket ships, and AI can’t possibly be worth that much? I’ve been in HN for 16 y…

The difference being, of course, that the photo app actually earns a profit, whereas the "EVs, robots and rocket ships" and ESPECIALLY the AI so far do not, and most likely will not any time soon.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#63
post #49

SpaceX is being valued as an AI company and yet they don't have a frontier AI model. Goldman Sachs is predicting 100x growth in 4 years for xAI, but it is a failed company with no frontier model. Top employees have left, and the company is renting out datacenter capacity. Satellite launch business has $4.1 billion in revenue, but only growing 8% annually. Most of the revenue is from Starlink. It has $11.4 billion in…

[flagged]

Those naive retail investors can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#64
post #58
post #14

An interesting variant of "privatise the profits, socialise the losses" played wholly in the private sector capital investment space. "When you're rich they let you" is big in this because a functional board of a company about to be vested with a massive debt overhang from a serial offender (X and xAI) would surely have said "could we NOT" about this and the whole model including A and B class voting shares suggests…

If SpaceX succeeds, the gains will go to the same people who will bear the losses if it doesn’t. Both the gains and losses are privatized. The consumer/ad tech bias of HN is really showing. The app I use to share photos of my kids with my elderly relatives is worth $1.45 trillion, but somehow companies that make freaking EVs, robots, and rocket ships, and AI can’t possibly be worth that much? I’ve been in HN for 16 y…

> but somehow companies that make freaking EVs, robots, and rocket ships, and AI can’t possibly be worth that much?

The sky-high valuation of SpaceX is almost entirely related to it's estimated TAM from AI entreprise solutions, not robots and rocketships. HN news comments have a similar bias against the sky-high valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#65

Matt Levine's take was essentially that if you're in the index fund game, you want the market. You don't pick and choose what parts of the market you want--that's active management. SPCX mostly isn't an issue because most indices include the float in the weight, so it isn't really even a $1T company.

The problem isn’t that you’re invested in the index. The problem is that the index decided it wanted to change its rules to include companies that are not profitable. I still remember the days when you needed to be profitable for x quarters and have a minimum amount of float to be listed in an index. That changed overnight and we all know why.

Can someone make an etf that uses the older more conservative criteria for inclusion?

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With several large bets on the table with starship that have yet to play out. Remember mars by 2024? I think that was around the time they started accepting deposits on tesla semi.

They shipped the Semi though. Yes the situation is bad but its not vaporware. Musk had to scam the markets to survive in late 2017/2018

The problem is the stock is not valued based on the space part. It's sky-high valuation is based on absurd projected AI revenues.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#67
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relevant indices (S&P500, Vanguard) buy in proportion to available float -- i.e., its market cap is weighted by 5%. Only Nasdaq 100 ignores float, stupidly, but almost no money, especially 401(k) money, is in that.

Oh there are ETFs that track Nasdaq 100.

[deleted]

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#69
post #58
post #14

An interesting variant of "privatise the profits, socialise the losses" played wholly in the private sector capital investment space. "When you're rich they let you" is big in this because a functional board of a company about to be vested with a massive debt overhang from a serial offender (X and xAI) would surely have said "could we NOT" about this and the whole model including A and B class voting shares suggests…

If SpaceX succeeds, the gains will go to the same people who will bear the losses if it doesn’t. Both the gains and losses are privatized. The consumer/ad tech bias of HN is really showing. The app I use to share photos of my kids with my elderly relatives is worth $1.45 trillion, but somehow companies that make freaking EVs, robots, and rocket ships, and AI can’t possibly be worth that much? I’ve been in HN for 16 y…

There is no moat around what they are doing really and they have competitors in all these sectors. All it takes is another administration to come in with a brain and a spine to not just hand contract blindly to Elon.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#70
post #58
post #14

An interesting variant of "privatise the profits, socialise the losses" played wholly in the private sector capital investment space. "When you're rich they let you" is big in this because a functional board of a company about to be vested with a massive debt overhang from a serial offender (X and xAI) would surely have said "could we NOT" about this and the whole model including A and B class voting shares suggests…

If SpaceX succeeds, the gains will go to the same people who will bear the losses if it doesn’t. Both the gains and losses are privatized. The consumer/ad tech bias of HN is really showing. The app I use to share photos of my kids with my elderly relatives is worth $1.45 trillion, but somehow companies that make freaking EVs, robots, and rocket ships, and AI can’t possibly be worth that much? I’ve been in HN for 16 y…

There are a lot more consumers in the world willing to use the photo app than entities that do rocket launches. This isn't to say that it is changing the world more, it's just that it makes more money. That's how capitalism is set up right now.
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