Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition • Hacker News Board

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#61

Post by toomuchtodo » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 10:49 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #49

Right now the UK makes up the volatility of its heavy reliance on wind with LNG. So this isn't exactly a hedge against gas shortage.

Ember Energy: British power prices are increasingly independent from gas - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/british-power-price... - May 13th, 2026

* 15% of British power generation is already de-linked from the gas power price. This is from 10 GW of operational renewable capacity currently covered by the price-setting Contracts for Difference scheme.

* A third (36%) of power generation in Britain will be priced independently of gas by 2030, according to forecasts of generation from the Contracts for Difference scheme. Up to 36 GW of competitively-priced new wind and solar is under development by 2032 through the scheme.

* Hours where gas was below 20% of Britain’s electricity mix averaged £60/MWh in 2025, compared to £130/MWh in hours where gas made up more than 50% of the mix.

* The gas share of power generation fell to a second record monthly low in a row in Britain in April 2026. The gas share in both March (27%) and April (19%) was the lowest per month in over a decade. In March, wind supplied a monthly record 42% of all power generation.

(As more wind, solar, batteries, and transmission are deployed in the UK, fossil gas power share will continue to decline until pushed out of the generation mix)

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#62

Post by JumpCrisscross » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 10:49 PM UTC

manphone wrote: post #47

toasty228 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mass deportation of who? The far right governments of most EU countries just play on basic fear tactics, none of them will ever do anything remotely close to your mass deportation fantasies. The most hardcore things they'll do is apply the laws which already exists regarding foreign people committing crimes and people illegally entering, and even that isn't given Just look at the post brexit UK or Meloni's Italy...

This is what people said about Trump and the Republicans. Of course they wouldn’t do mass deportation. It’s all just rhetoric.

Trump, at the end of the day, deported about as many people as Obama. He just made a huge song and dance about it. (And blew the military budget of Saudi Arabia while doing it to boot.)

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#63

Post by conception » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 10:51 PM UTC

manphone wrote: post #47

toasty228 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mass deportation of who? The far right governments of most EU countries just play on basic fear tactics, none of them will ever do anything remotely close to your mass deportation fantasies. The most hardcore things they'll do is apply the laws which already exists regarding foreign people committing crimes and people illegally entering, and even that isn't given Just look at the post brexit UK or Meloni's Italy...

This is what people said about Trump and the Republicans. Of course they wouldn’t do mass deportation. It’s all just rhetoric.

When someone tells you who they are believe them.

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#64

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 10:51 PM UTC

dbt00 wrote: post #24

firefoxd wrote: post #2

Remember, we didn't know how to pronounce hormuz until bombs started falling on people's head. The bombs and those who dropped them caused the problem. This isn't an energy issue.

I cannot stress enough how historically ignorant of a perspective this is. I don't know how you meant this, but Hormuz has been one of the most critical geopolitical choke points since 1979, and Iran has spent 45 years preparing to use it for leverage in exactly this situation. None of these facts should be a surprise to leaders of nations.

[deleted]

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#65

Post by JumpCrisscross » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 10:59 PM UTC

irishcoffee wrote: post #40

dbt00 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot stress enough how historically ignorant of a perspective this is. I don't know how you meant this, but Hormuz has been one of the most critical geopolitical choke points since 1979, and Iran has spent 45 years preparing to use it for leverage in exactly this situation. None of these facts should be a surprise to leaders of nations.

Well apparently over 95% of that 45 years of preparing has been obliterated, their currency is in free fall, 2M people have become unemployed over there in the last few months, and a handful of idiots are playing a game of chicken with global implications. What a mess.

> their currency is in free fall, 2M people have become unemployed over there in the last few months, and a handful of idiots are playing a game of chicken with global implications

U.S. PPI is in the double digits as is MoM CPI. And while Republicans are seeing losses in polling, the IRGC is consolidating power. Both Iran and America are bleeding. But it seems clear that it’s in the IRGC’s interest to draw this one out for goodies. That’s why Tehran escalating while Trump desperately tries and fails to run home.

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#66

Post by newaccount670 » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 11:01 PM UTC

Hormuz being closed hurts Iran way more than it does the US. It's shocking that they're persisting on this strategy. That's the problem with authoritarians though: they'd rather rule over rubble than be an average citizen in a prosperous society.

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#67

Post by glaucon » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 11:04 PM UTC

WillPostForFood wrote: post #55

nashashmi wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We pay like 30 cents in USD per kw.

Average price is $0.19 in the US. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610

Which is pretty much what Australian average price is. Average Australian domestic tariff is around AUD 0.30/kwh which is USD 0.21/kwh.

None of this touches on standing charges, I don't know how that works in the USA, in Australia for an average household it runs at AUD 1.00/day to AUD 1.50/day (USD 0.70/day to USD 1.00/day). For an average household the standing charge is going to add 15 to 20% to the tariff.

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#68

Post by seanmcdirmid » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC

newaccount670 wrote: post #66

Hormuz being closed hurts Iran way more than it does the US. It's shocking that they're persisting on this strategy. That's the problem with authoritarians though: they'd rather rule over rubble than be an average citizen in a prosperous society.

Its probably all reflex at this point. The USA killed almost all the top leadership early on in the war, leading to a sub-optimal leadership transition with the feeling that the country didn't have much left to lose. I'm not sure what the US leadership was thinking, maybe they really bought the "the people will overthrow the government and not hate the US if we just do a few strategic assassinations" spiel?

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#69

Post by jimbokun » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

cyberax wrote: post #13

programmertote wrote: post #4

I'm assuming that China, with its industrial power and leadership position to produce a bunch of green energy components (like solar panels), is well-positioned to benefit from this.

The Chinese Politbureau is toasting themselves so hard, they're going to be drunk for the next decade. It's a perfect storm for China, they're leading in EVs, battery production, renewables. While the US is busy undermining itself from all directions: as a military superpower, cultural, political, economical. Europe is waking up slowly, but it is shackled by high internal energy prices, not enough labor, and low desi…

The MAGAchurian candidate.

Re: Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

#70

Post by LarsKrimi » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

newaccount670 wrote: post #66

Hormuz being closed hurts Iran way more than it does the US. It's shocking that they're persisting on this strategy. That's the problem with authoritarians though: they'd rather rule over rubble than be an average citizen in a prosperous society.

It's not about the US vs Iran.

It's Iran turning the strait into a wedge between US and the rest of their previous partners. The US has enough oil for themselves, but the hurt is felt everywhere else. And the cause of that hurt points in one direction (the US)