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Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

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Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#61

Post by analognoise »

stephc_int13 wrote: post #56

Here is a prediction about Bitcoin: there will be a financial crash at some point in the future, maybe it will be the AI bubble, maybe because of oil, shortages, something entirely unforeseen or some combination of those things, but if there is something to know about cycles is that crashes happens. And because Bitcoin is now old enough that most people understand what it is, the hype has vanished, it won't survive t…

Of course it won’t survive, it’s the jpeg of a chimp in a baseball cap smoking a cigar of money.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#62

Post by jfengel »

j2kun wrote: post #19

Bitcoin price stories should no longer be considered on topic for HN.

They were widely considered on topic when the price was going monotonically upwards.

Aside from the technical aspects of blockchain, there is a second reason to talk about the direction of the price. There's reason to think that it's falling because of other technology offerings (mostly AI, and increasingly space). So it's a meaningful indicator of the sense of investors in technologies.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#63

Post by OutOfHere »

Overpower0416 wrote: post #48
OutOfHere wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Precisely, although the dip is likely to be deeper. Having said this, the quantum risk is real, and if left unaddressed, the pattern will break.

People will come up with whatever narrative for Bitcoin. Bears sound smart but in the end bulls make the money

Are you one of those people who have much difficulty understanding even the basics of quantum computing and what it implies for cryptography and for Bitcoin after 2029?

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#64

Post by OutOfHere »

scotty79 wrote: post #60
OutOfHere wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lows are also predictable in my estimation.

How low will it go in this cycle by your estimates? In my estimate not much lower than that. Baring any catastrophic event, like a pandemic.

> not much lower than that.

Not much lower than what?

> How low will it go in this cycle

In the ballpark of 50K USD.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#65

Post by FireBeyond »

malfist wrote: post #28
avmich wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Telll it to my friend who was escaping a country under sanctions and had to move his money elsewhere. His bank didn't have that miraculous power, but Bitcoin did.

Yes, I agree. Bitcoin is great for crime.

Even as someone who thinks crypto is an absolute cesspool, and while acknowledging that even in the "move cash" scenario that the vast majority of it is shady, from avoiding taxes to ... whatever, to be honest, I can't get too mad if it helps the "average person" who is sincerely escaping a "problematic" country/home do so.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#66

Post by Overpower0416 »

OutOfHere wrote: post #63
Overpower0416 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People will come up with whatever narrative for Bitcoin. Bears sound smart but in the end bulls make the money

Are you one of those people who have much difficulty understanding even the basics of quantum computing and what it implies for cryptography and for Bitcoin after 2029?

There are many articles with sources that a Bitcoin post-quantum algorithm is in development and running on a testnet. Your fear is irrational and premature on something that is not even close to being production ready.

The recent AI development and progress has fried everyone's brain that every new tech will take a financial quarter to develop.

Maybe I should sell my gold also because nuclear fusion will make it plentiful and obsolete as store of value?

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#67

Post by jfengel »

4fterd4rk wrote: post #52
ecshafer wrote: post #39

Bitcoin doesn't really have any coherent reasoning behind it, that I can tell. Other investments I can have a theory (which may be wrong) and see it work. I can buy gold/silver to hedge weaker currency. I can believe a stock is going up (or the market in general). I can buy bonds. I can do Forex or Commodities based on whatever feeling if I really want to lose money. But Bitcoin doesn't really seem to correlate with…

That's circular logic on the gold/silver. You basically say gold/silver holds value because it holds value. Bitcoin and other crypto is really no more illogical than precious metals. Precious metals have a few relatively minor uses for industrial applications but really they're valuable because we've all agreed they're valuable, no different than Bitcoin.

It's no more illogical, but it's also not much less illogical. Either is an unforgeable, limited token of arbitrary value.

Being digital, Bitcoin has some nice properties that precious metals don't, but we stopped using precious metals as the foundation of the economy decades ago. The idea remains popular with a certain set of ideologues who want to make their cash holdings the basis of the financial system, but that's much too inflexible to run a modern economy.

Economists overwhelmingly believe that they need currency control to manage irrational market speculation. Technologists frequently cite a small number of economists who disagree, and while truth is not a democracy, but it's wise to be suspicious when one's choice of experts just happens to affirm the things that benefit you personally.

tl;dr: There could be a place for blockchain, but BTC is based on a bunch of self-imagined revolutionaries who don't know how to manage an economy.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#68

Post by scotty79 »

OutOfHere wrote: post #64
scotty79 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How low will it go in this cycle by your estimates? In my estimate not much lower than that. Baring any catastrophic event, like a pandemic.

> not much lower than that. Not much lower than what? > How low will it go in this cycle In the ballpark of 50K USD.

> Not much lower than what?

Than the current price of fifty-ish k.

Although even if you buy and sell perfectly. This cycle gain shouldn't be larger than about 100% between now and +2.5 years from now. And that's in dollars, that are gonna probably lose another another 15% of their value in that time.

Bitcoin became a pretty boring asset.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#69

Post by j2kun »

jfengel wrote: post #62
j2kun wrote: post #19

Bitcoin price stories should no longer be considered on topic for HN.

They were widely considered on topic when the price was going monotonically upwards. Aside from the technical aspects of blockchain, there is a second reason to talk about the direction of the price. There's reason to think that it's falling because of other technology offerings (mostly AI, and increasingly space). So it's a meaningful indicator of the sense of investors in technologies.

I disagreed with that as well. There is no technical content in a finance publication playing the price change horserace.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#70

Post by j2kun »

tom_ wrote: post #59
j2kun wrote: post #19

Bitcoin price stories should no longer be considered on topic for HN.

Very true. Now that we have AI, Bitcoin is irrelevant.

I would say the same thing about stories purely about AI company stock price changes, but I imagine that is a losing battle here.
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