Earlier quoted context omitted.
Such as?
Do you live in a cave? I guess not. Do you have access to the internet? Seemingly yes. The booms just tend to be much bigger than the busts.
Great examples.
Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
61–70 of 166 posts
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. It has been broken since ~2008 (ZIRPs, etc.) and has really gone off the rails since BTC and memestocks have taken off. Now everything's a memestock. It's all vibes-based.
People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances. There are no fundamentals. There is very low signal to the noise.
The question is how long until things break.
I wouldn't advocate for betting against any of this. But I took my money out of the stock market a few months ago.
Shorting is too risky and depends a lot on timing. Staying clear of this mess is a safer bet.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#63The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…
Can you elaborate on how passive investing contributes to this?
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you live in a cave? I guess not. Do you have access to the internet? Seemingly yes. The booms just tend to be much bigger than the busts.
The internet absolutely went bust. That’s what the dotcom crash was. Same with a lot of physical infrastructure. The UK has a robust railroad network today, but it was built during a bubble that was so insane people would take loans from banks to invest in railroad stocks.
Now we just take loans to purchase the train tickets.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances. There are no fundamentals. There is very low signal to the noise.
> People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances. Isn’t this the exact same sentiment from the late 1920s when people were making “insane, life changing” money by buying equities on margin?
This time is different.
It may well though, because now we have an automatic buy from the government to 'fix' the market if it 'breaks'. The line goes up.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#66The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…
> If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride.
> Burry is well aware of this ...
Well, no he isn't well aware of this, apparently. He's been right in 2008 but he has been spectacularly wrong for the last 5 to 10 years, like shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund...
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#67Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#68What's the rationale offered by NASDAQ for their new "15-days and you're in the index" rule for these massive IPOs? Seems equivalent to removing road safety rules for the least-tested, most-powerful new vehicles only.
I suppose you could make an argument that these enormously large IPOs are themselves a new phenomenon and need to be accounted for.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#69I think you could argue Anthropic could be worth $1T. With AI becoming an essential work utility, every global knowledge worker would want a claude subscription. There are 650M to 1B of such office workers. 300M workers × $50/month × 12 = $180B/year. The genie is not going back into the bottle, I have seen what claude code can do when properly connected to tools. But Micheals arguments are valid. There could be compe…
AI is far from becoming an essential work utility, Anthropic will not be used by approximately 100% of the office workers in the developed world, and a price to sales ratio of over 5 for a company that is struggling to become profitable due to high operating expenses seems exceptionally high.
The problem with all these companies is that they are priced as if their training and inference costs are going to come way down, but somehow only for them specifically.
Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
#70So the company that actually makes computers programming computers work, ain't worth $1T. Whoever you are Michael Burry, you don't know shit about the implications, and where this is headed, and that the party only just got started. I sure do wish I had a big chunk of that overpriced Google IPO stock, and Amazon, and MS, and Apple, etc etc etc
> So the company that actually makes computers programming computers work
Translation (took me while to understand this sentence):
So the company that actually solved the problem of making a computer program write other computer programs