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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#61

Post by JumpCrisscross »

soared wrote: post #54
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9

Net buying of corporate equities by American households, trusts, funds and non-profits has averaged $660bn per year for the last few years [1]. $200bn is not fundamentally a stretch for the American equity markets, let alone capital markets more broadly. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22... line 16, 2023 to 2025

A 30% increase in one year, across only 3 companies, seems like a of a stretch. Especially given current economic/etc climates.

> 30% increase in one year

30% above the average. Households bought $1.6 trillion in Q3 of 2025, for example. (Foreigners bought a further $650 and $700 billion in Q3 and Q4, respectively.)

American capital markets are ridiculously deep.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#62

Post by fnordpiglet »

paulpauper wrote: post #13
rconti wrote: post #2

So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.

People keep predicting "house of cards" and keep being wrong. AI bubble was supposed to burst as far back as 2023. When was the last time since 2009 there was a $500+ billion tech valuation that lost 90% or more? After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.

If note the dotcom boom lasted from about 1995 until 2000. Housing bubble longer. Theres no time table on when the bubble bursts, and the web didn’t die and neither did housing when the burst happened. It is just a reset and consolidation of overtly excessive speculation. It’s not like the bust leads to an end of civilization.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#63

Post by za_creature »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #26
hungryhobbit wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't.

> people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't History is also replete with people constantly predicting collapses that don't come. Timing the market is very hard with numbers, it's total nonsense if one is just going off vibes.

Most bank runs tend to be driven by vibes, not numbers though.

The good news is that these folks seem to be in possession of a vibe-rator.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#64

Post by JumpCrisscross »

munk-a wrote: post #59
irjustin wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

Right now SPY not be such a great idea with SpaceX launch upcoming since it will be included into it immediately. Retail investors will be bearing that particular flop's cost.

> SPY not be such a great idea with SpaceX launch upcoming since it will be included into it immediately

S&P has not announced a methodology change yet.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#65

Post by bdangubic »

irjustin wrote: post #46
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

no one is going to get wealthy buying SPY/VOO. you might get rich, but not wealthy. things have changed now in a sense that handful of companies are large percentage of the stock market to the point where one has to question why invest in “s&p 500” vs “s&p 25-ish”

while going with the tried&true makes some sense, I think we have to open our eyes to a different reality of our stock market… and this market concentration into few companies is going to get a lot worse…

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#66

Post by SomaticPirate »

No doubt these companies are woefully overvalued. But this won’t stop me from putting in orders for several thousand dollars of shares with at market open. There will undoubtedly be plenty of buyers and I expect them to gain rapid entry into the indexes which will unlock a flood of additional capital from 401ks and pensions

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#67

Post by manoDev »

irjustin wrote: post #46
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

It doesn’t seem Berkshire is that much in the market right now.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#68

Post by lmm »

paulpauper wrote: post #13
rconti wrote: post #2

So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.

People keep predicting "house of cards" and keep being wrong. AI bubble was supposed to burst as far back as 2023. When was the last time since 2009 there was a $500+ billion tech valuation that lost 90% or more? After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.

> After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.

Groupon got to pretty much 100% penetration, still crashed and burned right after IPO. I think Zynga followed a similar trajectory.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#69

Post by JumpCrisscross »

bdangubic wrote: post #65
irjustin wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

no one is going to get wealthy buying SPY/VOO. you might get rich, but not wealthy. things have changed now in a sense that handful of companies are large percentage of the stock market to the point where one has to question why invest in “s&p 500” vs “s&p 25-ish” while going with the tried&true makes some sense, I think we have to open our eyes to a different reality of our stock market… and this market concentratio…

> things have changed now in a sense that handful of companies are large percentage of the stock market to the point where one has to question why invest in “s&p 500” vs “s&p 25-ish”

A small number of companies have always driven most stock-market gains. Betting on size isn't fundamentally a bad bet. But it is a bet against value and the historical tendency for small companies to be higher risk and higher reward.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#70

Post by caspper69 »

irjustin wrote: post #46
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

One of my favorite phrases is “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Even if all signs point to impending doom, at the end of the day if people are still buying, stocks will hold their value.

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