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The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

deadcarl.com

61–70 of 86 posts

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#61
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And if you try to create a merit based system, you take away the liberties of the people. How does a system that rewards people for being good at what they do 'take away liberties'? > Who decides what person deserves more than another? You will create a system ripe for corruption. Who decides this now? Its the people who already have more and this has resulted in our existing system being rife with corruption at th…

> How does a system that rewards people for being good at what they do 'take away liberties'? Define being good at what you do. It's not such an easy thing. IMO the best way we can do such a thing is let markets and trade define what it means to be good at what you do. If you provide value to others and your customers are willing to pay you a premium, that means you are good at what you do. It's hard to explain my wa…

> more enforcement of competition rules

It sounds like you are advocating for a merit-based system.

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#62
post #35
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We still speak today of Charlemagne, Muhammed, Caesar, Alexander. Napoleon and Columbus have secured for themselves their seats in the pantheon of history and it will take longer than a thousand years for mankind to forget about them. All these men built our world.

What are a thousand years other than a couple of generations? What does it matter from further away? We always forget about the past eventually. There are so many great civilisations we only have tiny shreds of knowledge about, and yet in their time, they also had great leaders and epic stories to tell. It’s all inconsequential once enough time has passed.

Well, fifty generations.

Though by that metric, all of written history is 300 generations (6,000 years), of modern humans about 30,000 generations. About 100,000 generations separate us from chimpanzees.

But yes, our timescale is pretty short by that measure.

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#63
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How does a system that rewards people for being good at what they do 'take away liberties'? Define being good at what you do. It's not such an easy thing. IMO the best way we can do such a thing is let markets and trade define what it means to be good at what you do. If you provide value to others and your customers are willing to pay you a premium, that means you are good at what you do. It's hard to explain my wa…

> more enforcement of competition rules It sounds like you are advocating for a merit-based system.

Competition doesn't have to be merit based. My view on competition rules is that it should prevent winners, period. If there is a company so good that they can effectively monopolize a market based on merit alone, they should still be punished. How is that advocating for merit?

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#64
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Organisations have evolved to deal with them. In fact, all the rules and procedures, checks and compliance procedures are there precisely to allow the organisation to survive despite its members.

What new concept evolves society the mental-immunity necessary to survive these radically destructive _ideas_? (Ie. corporations are people) If revolution is the old answer to oppressive organizations together with its tragic loss of life, then… where’s our cure for cancer?

Companies are not people, but they certainly are highly evolved collective organisms that extract resources from the rest of the ecosystem.

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#65
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More useful less cynical frame is the Theory of Bounded Rationality which tell us everything has limits. Merit included.

I mean, yes everything has limits. I think the point is that the limit for how much merit is required for our system to run is much much lower then people would intuitively expect. Which is why its surprising when we see very clearly incompetent people thriving at the same time other very clearly competent and talented people are struggling, and wondering how that could possibly happen.

The whole thing runs on survivorship bias. And if you don't agree, just wait and see.

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#66
post #14

When you look at white noise from up close, you see dramatic changes, periods of calm, and what seems like patterns. Only when you step back, you realise all that drama you read is mostly inconsequential. What will be the impact of Napoleon 1000 years from now? Of Columbus? If instead of Hitler Germany had Rohm? It’s all monkeys and typewriters all the way down. What matters are the structural forces, the natural res…

They both matter. All of the typewriters in the world doesn’t produce a play until you find the right monkey.

The right monkey is the one we are reading from. All other monkeys produced equally likely timelines.

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#67
post #20
post #14

When you look at white noise from up close, you see dramatic changes, periods of calm, and what seems like patterns. Only when you step back, you realise all that drama you read is mostly inconsequential. What will be the impact of Napoleon 1000 years from now? Of Columbus? If instead of Hitler Germany had Rohm? It’s all monkeys and typewriters all the way down. What matters are the structural forces, the natural res…

We still speak today of Charlemagne, Muhammed, Caesar, Alexander. Napoleon and Columbus have secured for themselves their seats in the pantheon of history and it will take longer than a thousand years for mankind to forget about them. All these men built our world.

We talk about them because they are the ones who became famous. If they hadn’t existed we’d be talking about others that would most likely have done the same ish things with a couple decades of difference.

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#68

You could fit in most senior directors, consultants and sales VPs into that bucket comfortably.

Ok, I’ll bite - why sales VPs?

Mediocre sales leaders I've found treat pipeline stagnation as a motivation problem rather than fixing the underlying issues with training, lead qualification, or sales collateral. Previous company had a sales pipeline tanking, and the "brilliant" Sales VP thought bringing forward a sales off-site to get the best performing reps together to motivate them. Net result, pipeline tanks further, VP waits a few months and leaves, and the reps all get upset at missing their targets for a full quarter.

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#69
post #55

"Understandably, there has been much speculation as to [leader]’s mental fitness. It has been marked that [leader] possessed a perpetual immaturity. He had great difficulty in taking matters seriously, and tended to fixate on surface level details that caught his fancy to the neglect of the heart of the matter. He spoke without preparation or consideration, seemingly unaware of the consequences this brought about. Ho…

[flagged]

Re: The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History

#70
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> more enforcement of competition rules It sounds like you are advocating for a merit-based system.

Competition doesn't have to be merit based. My view on competition rules is that it should prevent winners, period. If there is a company so good that they can effectively monopolize a market based on merit alone, they should still be punished. How is that advocating for merit?

Monopolies form for other reasons than 'because they are so good', and without exception, monopolies go on to produce less-good products over time while simultaneously preventing better products from entering the market.

So in practice, rules against monopoly are fully consistent with merit-based ideals.

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