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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#61

Post by PyWoody »

chollida1 wrote: post #39
hmry wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

being pedantic here but > You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home This isn't really true. Lots of people take out life insurance on others as a hedge for many reasons, small business partner is one. Same fire insurance, we had a case where someone pledged a building as collateral and we took out separate fire insurance on the build…

> I'm not sure where this false premise started but alot of people believe it.

It being the driving plot behind Double Indemnity probably started it. I always thought it was true until your comment, too.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#63

Post by akersten »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

> they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet.

How does the same line of argument not also suggest that stock markets be prohibited?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#64

Post by AtNightWeCode »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Historically similar services have also been used to try to manipulate the real world by using bets for creating opinions. Like if you get to vote between candidate x and y and x leads by 75% to 25% on Polymarket maybe you don't vote for y even if the real numbers may be way closer.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#65

Post by chollida1 »

compiler-guy wrote: post #57
chollida1 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

being pedantic here but > You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home This isn't really true. Lots of people take out life insurance on others as a hedge for many reasons, small business partner is one. Same fire insurance, we had a case where someone pledged a building as collateral and we took out separate fire insurance on the build…

The technical term is that you must have an “insurable interest” in what you insure. Both of your examples are people protecting their insurable interest. Ownership is the most common insurable interest, but there are many other ways to have one. This is done because the insurance company wants you to prefer that the covered event doesn’t happen, which avoids some conflicts of interest. These prediction market events…

> The technical term is that you must have an “insurable interest” in what you insure.

Yep, we're in full agreement here

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#66

Post by croes »

throwawa1 wrote: post #31

When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.

something is deeply wrong with some humans

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#67

Post by freejazz »

WarmWash wrote: post #53
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

> as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world I would argue that the ratio between "power" and "money to be won" is too big (at least right now) for this to materially matter. No fortune 500 CEO is going to postpone a product launch so they can win $5,000 on polymarket. But some random guy will get his hair dryer to win a socially meaningless weather bet. It's not discussed often, but the liqui…

> No fortune 500 CEO is going to postpone a product launch so they can win $5,000 on polymarket

They would win a lot more than a trivial amount by taking adverse positions, no? Seems like you're making up your own hypothetical

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#68

Post by josefritzishere »

philipallstar wrote: post #35
hmry wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. That is indeed legally fine, though potentially distasteful. Polymarket is facilitating bets between people, not bets with the house. Gambling and insurance are both bets with the house.

That "facilitating" argument didn't work out for Silk Road.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#69

Post by kube-system »

jespinel wrote: post #16

[flagged]

That works in a world where everyone has equal knowledge and ability all of the time. Unfortunately, when that is not the case, sometimes humans have been known to take advantage of others. Due to this, every society on earth has created rules against various types of these situations.
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