Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, AI costs are definitely going to go down at least 90% in the next ~18 months for the same quality of output (and probably 90% again in the 24 months after). Are you sure it's going to make sense to pay someone to do that moving forward? I don't think it's worth it now, by the way. It's definitely not going to be worth it in the near future. Can we even blink for $0.002? What happens when the next 90% increase i…
> Well, AI costs are definitely going to go down at least 90% in the next ~18 months for the same quality of output (and probably 90% again in the 24 months after As far as I can see, token costs have been steadily increasing over the past few months, so I’m not sure that buying the hype that another 90% cost reduction is just around the corner is warranted.
Opus cut its token pricing by 66% 6 months ago and it had previously been that higher price consistently for a year and a half (since that model launch).
GPT’s latest model is harder to track since it’s not named, but it’s historically inline with its history.
Not to mention what’s happening with other models like DeepSeek, GLM, and Kimi.
It seems to me the bigger change in costs is based on token appetite. People are discovering agentic capabilities are stronger than they used to be and use cases have broadened because of that. They’ll eventually discover too that these alternative models offer 95% of the intelligence at 20% of the price.