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Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

vincentschmalbach.com

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Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#61

Post by thomashobohm »

HWR_14 wrote: post #27
miroljub wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that an issue? Many funds that replicate an index are not doing full replication anyway. They do some kind of sampling that includes way fewer stocks than defined in the index. What would stop a fund from just not including those stocks because of sampling? Or waiting for time to settle, since even with full physical replication, they are not required to jump in and buy immediately after IPO.

Index funds make legal commitments to replicate the entire index. I have no idea why you think they use sampling. The whole point of an index fund is I'm not paying someone to try to guess what stocks are going to under/over perform the S&P. And when they are required to buy is not really a mystery either. they have very little discretion.

Many Vanguard index funds use sampling, in fact. It's more complicated than you think.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#62

Post by _old_dude_ »

vincent_s wrote: post #5
Forgeties79 wrote: post #2

VC’s weren’t going to keep them propped up forever and it’s not like any of these companies have even a semblance of a plan to get into the black, so unfortunately this was always going to be the next stage for any LLM start up not bought out and folded in to a big player.

I'd say it's a mixed bag. Yes, price increases are/were expected. But blocking 3rd party harnesses from their subscription and also moving SDK/claude-p access out of the subscription is blocking innovation and therefore future use of Claude models. What I mean is, while Claude models are SOTA, Claude Code is not. It's full of bugs and shortcomings and new innovative harnesses might make better use of the model, but t…

If you do not block 3rd party harness, people will discover that a good harness is more important than a good model.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#63

Post by Aurornis »

fabian2k wrote: post #9

I think it's a good thing if the pricing gets more realistic. Both for the customers long-term and for the economy. To evaluate AI tools and how much benefit they provide you need to evaluate the costs as well. And right now nobody truly knows where the costs will end up. That's fine as long as the prices are stable, but they aren't. In one example I know, a boring company that isn't a pure software company, the Gith…

Copilot isn’t a good example because they had an extremely broken pricing model that was meant to be a loss leader. For a short while if you promoted a certain way you could get a crazy number of tokens out of their billing model.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#64

Post by nonethewiser »

spiderfarmer wrote: post #23
WarmWash wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The market is going to struggle to absorb It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.

See why it doesn’t trickle down?

Can you elaborate on what you mean?

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#65

Post by re-thc »

twiceaday wrote: post #47
the__alchemist wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding S&P: That is my acute concern. For individual investors, they can be removed by taking an a short position corresponding to the stock's index weight. (I do this for TSLA). More broadly, it exposes people who only use index funds or don't have shorting in their tool box (passive investors for example) to big risk.

Tesla is currently 2.2% of S&P 500. If it halves, losing $800,000,000,000 usd market cap, the index will go down by 1.1%. What big risk?

> What big risk?

Tesla doesn't drag everyone else down.

>50% of the S&P 500 is involved with these AI providers. There will be a cascading effect.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#66

Post by nonethewiser »

vincent_s wrote: post #48
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares What are you basing this on?

The amount of new shares for sale could be very large in those three IPOs: SpaceX: up to $75B [1] OpenAI: at least $60B [2] Anthropic: more than $60B [3] Together, that would be about $195B+ of IPO shares to buy. For comparison, all U.S. IPOs together raised $44.0B in 2025 [4]. All IPOs in the world together raised $171.8B in 2025 [5]. So where should the money come from? Either from selling shares in other companies…

>So where should the money come from?

Selling shares of other companies. If you think there isn't enough capital headroom, it's not SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic you should be worried about.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#67

Post by re-thc »

ReptileMan wrote: post #52
cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

I think that SpaceX and OpenAI will be ok. Ukraine war showed that Starlink is the real deal - all of Ukraine's successes (or reversed losses) in the last few months are mostly due to Starlink cutting off Russia. OpenAI seem to have the tech on par with Anthropic and world class con artist at the top and access to more compute. So when the tsunami of Chinese models and silicone materializes - Anthropic will be most v…

> Ukraine war showed that Starlink is the real deal

That held before SpaceX merged X, xAI and friends. Those are bleeding way more money than Starlink can recover.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#68

Post by nonethewiser »

ReptileMan wrote: post #52
cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

I think that SpaceX and OpenAI will be ok. Ukraine war showed that Starlink is the real deal - all of Ukraine's successes (or reversed losses) in the last few months are mostly due to Starlink cutting off Russia. OpenAI seem to have the tech on par with Anthropic and world class con artist at the top and access to more compute. So when the tsunami of Chinese models and silicone materializes - Anthropic will be most v…

Huh. Anthropic seems like they are in a significantly better position tech and finance-wise.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#70

Post by nonethewiser »

throwaway132448 wrote: post #54
HWR_14 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would self-host if it didn't cost so much for the hardware. But right now that's cost prohibitive for most individuals and small or medium businesses.

Funny how that happened, isn’t it?

How what happened? How everyone stopped having cutting edge graphics cards in all their devices? Most people have never been in a position to be able to do local inference on cutting edge models.
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