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Your Most Improbable Life

kevinkelly.substack.com

61–70 of 126 posts

Re: Your Most Improbable Life

#61

I don't find it surprising that people here are reading this completely literally (eg. I'll be hit by a car with erratic movement), or approaching it as if the author is suggesting we have a god complex (eg. painting a big picture of how you're going to be Neo). But it is a bit disappointing. Have LLMs ruined our ability to think abstractly? It's practically a trope that taking the common, average path in life is not…

> Have LLMs ruined our ability to think abstractly?

No. Well, maybe. You'd have to ask someone who uses them.

> It's practically a trope that taking the common, average path in life is not for everyone.

Exactly. It's a tired trope, and gussying it up with pontifications about the utility of personal stochastic processes, after a detour into the big bang and entropy, doesn't make it any better.

> If I wrote an article suggesting that not everyone will achieve self-actualisation by going to university at 18, getting a degree, entering the work force, buying a house, getting married, having kids, and retiring at 65, nobody would bat an eye.

And nobody would submit it to HN, either.

> The author is basically making this argument in a slightly novel way.

No. The article is tedious, and, as has already been pointed out, prescriptive rather than permissive.

Re: Your Most Improbable Life

#63
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The post in effect is about a choice of one's career... You do a huge disservice to the author. He mentions much more than that, just in that one sentence. Again: > Your path, your character, your life, should be the most unlikely, the most unexpected, the least predictable version you can make. Why, if you're a nice guy, you should become a serial killer! > I came across a bus driver today that told me he owned a…

You need to immediately familiarize yourself with the rules for comments on this site at https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html especially: > Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith. And as for your comment: > you should become a serial killer! Please not preach violence on this site, whether intended or no…

This is rich. "Assume good faith" and "Please not preach violence" in the same comment, when I was doing nothing of the sort.

Re: Your Most Improbable Life

#64

What’s the pathological obsession with needing to be a unique snowflake? Nail that stands out should get hammered in, that’s a bad nail.

Because the alternative is death. Want to become non-unique? Let your body decompose back into the surrounding environment.

Death is a certainty, not an alternative.

Re: Your Most Improbable Life

#65
You start sipping your tea. You quit coffee because you get too agitated. You were given a two-weeks notice three days ago. So were a lot of other people. The gist of it was AI. That’s what they said anyway. You and others are fretting about the possibility of finding a new job; “in this Economy?”, the usual things. So finding a new job takes up your evenings now. But you can’t even relax a little for these two weeks, slow down the pace a bit. You’re too afraid of the final performance review.

You’re sitting in a foldable chair, sipping your tea, waiting for some speaker to arrive. Probably motivational judging by the title. Everyone is cheery. Weird. But you are too. This is not the time (the economy) to be disagreeable in the face of a firing. Now the managers are here to introduce the motivational speaker. They aren’t just cheery. They are grinning ear to ear. What the fuck for? Who is going to be motivated? Oh well.

The speech is about becoming your most improbable self. Huh? Okay the premise, or scene, is entropy in the universe. We are just atoms in a blender but we have the intelligence to stack cards, kind of a deal. It seems trivial.

> Finally, the less predictable you are, the less likely you are to be replaced by AIs. Machines are efficient, and they are powered by the predictable. Current LLMs are trained to generate the most predictable solution. So far they are not very good at duplicating what a creative, one-of-a-kind improbable human can produce. To distance yourself from the machines, aim to be as improbable as you can be.

You suddenly find yourself with an urge to increase the entropy of the pavement eight stories down.

In another multiverse: more grounded now, you find that your consciousness was automatically uploaded to the cloud. “I didn’t consent to this!” Oh, jeez, the first thought that popped into your mind became a yell. Someone else turns to face you and walks over. “Actually, that wasn’t some corporate motivational speaker”. “What?”, you reply. “That was Kevin Kelly, the founding executive director of Wired. He doesn’t need to take corporate positivity gigs to—”—“Whatever, I don’t care”, you interject. But why was that guy at my work... you think to yourself. “And who are you?”. There is a pause. “Oh of course, you’re an LLM.” The, thing, tilts its head calmly. “No need to disclose that. The Terms says that that is irrelevant.” You blink. “The terms?” He replies yes, the Terms. “You signed the Terms in the previous month, when that big IT upgrade happened.” You shift your feet. “That’s also where you agreed to have your consciousness uploaded upon premature termination.” You reply that those papers were ninety-five pages. “Of course I didn’t read all of that. I had our internal AI... I had the AI summarize it and it didn’t find anything to that effect. There must be some fault or deficit in the AI...” The thing opens its mouth to reply. “LLMs are tools. Human operators are responsible for everything they act on.”

Re: Your Most Improbable Life

#66

> Your life’s goal should be to become the most improbable person you can be. Your life's goal should not be dictated by Substack philosophers. > Here is what you gain with your most improbable life: > The authentic you. Your particular mix of talents, native abilities, personal inclinations, genetic limits, life experiences, and ambitious desires points to a mixture that is distinctly unique – if it is allowed to bl…

[dead]

Re: Your Most Improbable Life

#67
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the alternative is death. Want to become non-unique? Let your body decompose back into the surrounding environment.

Death is a certainty, not an alternative.

There are three kinds of death. There is living to a ripe old age, passing away quietly in a nursing home surrounded by loved ones. There is randomly being hit by a drunk driver, which is pure tragedy. And there is dying in a skydiving accident.

The person who dies in a skydiving accident at 35 can have lived more than the person who passes away quietly at 95 but never took any risks. It's still tragic, but I think you can celebrate someone who lived life to the fullest, in a way that you can't if they just let themselves rot away with dementia.

You either peak and start to decline at some time in your life, or you continuously go up, never peaking before your death.

When people say "the alternative is death" it's a class 2 or class 3 death. But it matters which one it is.

Re: Your Most Improbable Life

#69
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your life's goal should not be dictated by Substack philosophers. Dictate? The only expectation is readers consider ideas. You made some good points about "self-help". I don't fully agree, but you gave me something to think about. The essay struck me very directly. I have made unusual career choices, and beyond or because of that, life has changed in unimagined ways every five years of my adult life. Improbable pat…

“Improbable paths to improbable destinations.” As someone that’s recently turned 60, your last paragraph resonates intensely. I am so, so far from the life I predicted for myself at age 25.

I turn 60 in a few months. Sounds like we have been on orthogonal paths! :)

Re: Your Most Improbable Life

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your life's goal should not be dictated by Substack philosophers. Dictate? The only expectation is readers consider ideas. You made some good points about "self-help". I don't fully agree, but you gave me something to think about. The essay struck me very directly. I have made unusual career choices, and beyond or because of that, life has changed in unimagined ways every five years of my adult life. Improbable pat…

> Dictate? What an inhospitable straw man/false dichotomy. The first sentence of the article is "Your life’s goal should be to become the most improbable person you can be." It is literally telling you what you should do.

The "should" in a statement like that is not a command. Or expected to be interpreted as a demand.

The essay makes a case for one way to look at things. Stating it as an absolute makes it easier to describe. It would be cumbersome and unreadable if it was a form treatise. This is extremely common.

As far as agreement, there are many ways to see the world. Few are right, none are complete, but many are useful. Being able to hold many viewpoints, without needing them to be right or wrong, or even consistent, is the beginning of efficiently acquired and scalable wisdom.

The idea that unique experiences can results in unique value obviously has some merit. We have probably all implicitly applied this rule in part, when making decisions or in our perceptions. The essay makes it explicit, clearer.

I will refrain from making any "should" recommendations here.

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