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USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

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Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#61

Post by bluGill »

walthamstow wrote: post #56
bluGill wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are different grades with different properties. However very few are consumed by humans. When sold for humans it is called edamame. The most common use is crush the beans, and collect the oil feeding the rest to pigs. If you read the ingredients at the grocery store, soy bean oil comes up a lot. Soy bean oil is also often used in diesel engines after processing.

> When sold for humans it is called edamame. or tofu, soy sauce, miso, natto, tianmianjiang, a thousand other things made from soybeans

all of them are heavily processed and don't look like soy beans. (not everything heavily processed is unhealthy)

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#62

Post by bluGill »

9rx wrote: post #54
bluGill wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are different grades with different properties. However very few are consumed by humans. When sold for humans it is called edamame. The most common use is crush the beans, and collect the oil feeding the rest to pigs. If you read the ingredients at the grocery store, soy bean oil comes up a lot. Soy bean oil is also often used in diesel engines after processing.

> When sold for humans it is called edamame. Edamame is limited to special varieties that are harvested before ripening, which isn't the soybeans those supplanting wheat will be growing. You're probably thinking of tofu, natto, or something in that vein.

Most of those things don't look like soy beans. (then again almost nobody is eating unprocessed wheat either)

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#63

Post by 9rx »

bluGill wrote: post #61
walthamstow wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When sold for humans it is called edamame. or tofu, soy sauce, miso, natto, tianmianjiang, a thousand other things made from soybeans

all of them are heavily processed and don't look like soy beans. (not everything heavily processed is unhealthy)

Natto still looks like soybeans when they arrive on your plate. They are fermented, but calling that heavily processed seems like a stretch.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#64

Post by SecretDreams »

ericpauley wrote: post #7

Title claims "due to plains drought" but the article text largely attributes this to increased planting of soy for its lower fertilizer requirements (related to Strait of Hormuz).

Agreed.

But there's a very weird underlying sentiment on HN where many people seem to directly or indirectly jump whenever they can to downplay the existence of climate change. Sometimes, they are emboldened by articles like this which intentionally use misleading headlines.

You're completely right, though, that in this instance, soy beans were mostly focused on because of consumer trends and less fertilizer need. Wheat is just an expensive crop right now. Also, soybeans would actually be less resilient to drought which furthers your point re: the article headline.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#65

Post by cogman10 »

embedding-shape wrote: post #36
cogman10 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans. China stopped because it was particularly negatively targeted by US tariff policy. But make no mistake, it has caused problems for farmers. The report from my small hometown farmers is that everything, except for beef, is down right now while the prices of inputs like fertilizer are high. Some of the farmers in my hometown have already sold their land to megacor…

> I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans But who? Compared to 2024, 2025 had almost half soybean exports it seems ( https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/soybeans ), I'm guessing most of the difference was China basically stopped buying soybeans. But it's a huge difference, yet production seems to be ramping up? I don't understand why they'd do that when the exports are going down?

I don't think it's ramping up [1]. Production is pretty static.

And the chart you linked appears that exports for non-china countries is basically static.

Were I to guess what's going on, but we'll see when the 2026 data comes in, is that soy farmers are likely storing a good portion of their bean harvest. Some will still have contracts that keep them farming. I suspect that many have switched over to other crops.

[1] https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/production/2222000

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#66

Post by SecretDreams »

fullstop wrote: post #17
ericpauley wrote: post #7

Title claims "due to plains drought" but the article text largely attributes this to increased planting of soy for its lower fertilizer requirements (related to Strait of Hormuz).

Has the USA's potash supply been reduced due to strained relations with Canada? They are our top supplier, by far.

Yes. Despite what others have said, yes. But, in general, because of the current global dynamics, fertilizer is more expensive wherever you're going to be getting it from. It just doesn't help that the US has picked a trade war with all allies at the same time, while also engaging in real wars that disrupt global supply chains of critical resources.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#67

Post by forshaper »

fullstop wrote: post #31
9rx wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can eat soybeans, though, which are seeing record production thanks to it supplanting what is affectionately known in agriculture circles as poverty grass.

Perhaps someone in the industry can chime in, but I had read that the soybeans that the US primarily grows and previously sold to China were used for pig feed. In my mind I pictured it like "cow corn" -- humans technically can eat it, but it's chewy and not very good. Are there different grades of soybean?

I would appreciate tofu being cheaper than pork again.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#68

Post by shagie »

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #26
dakolli wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI. edit: cloud seeding too.

Plants require a ton of desalinated water and Animals who eat plants as such require desalinated water too. There are countries in middle east like UAE, Saudi arabia etc. which rely on desalination but they are relying it for the clean drinking water, not for the food generation. They import almost 90% of their food iirc. The amount of energy required to desalinate all water and the environmental impacts to get that…

The middle east tends to import hay and food for their livestock from other countries rather than growing it locally.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/forage-and-hay

https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/QAT/yea...

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#69

Post by persedes »

forshaper wrote: post #67
fullstop wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps someone in the industry can chime in, but I had read that the soybeans that the US primarily grows and previously sold to China were used for pig feed. In my mind I pictured it like "cow corn" -- humans technically can eat it, but it's chewy and not very good. Are there different grades of soybean?

I would appreciate tofu being cheaper than pork again.

It is...? H-mart + Wegmans has tofu at ~$2.5 for a 400g block. The cheapest bulk pork is at $2.6, but most portions / cuts sell at $4.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#70

Post by CGMthrowaway »

jmyeet wrote: post #28

This is about China. The timing of this article coming out during the Trump-China summit is no accident. The article beat around the bush (pun intended) that the real issue here is that China stopped buying (or seriously cut back) US agricultural products (particularly soy) because of tariffs imposed on China last year that got to over 100% at one point. China now buys significantly more soy from Argentina instead. T…

IDK how many people in China are laser focused on agweb.com for their geopolitical negotiations.

The data comes from USDA's WASDE report which is released every month, between the 8th and 12th. There is no "timing," and people were talking about the expect wheat harvest this season for weeks ahead of Tue's report anyway

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