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Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
61–70 of 73 posts
Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
The mistake that we seem to see repeatedly is blindness to adaptation. Russia's economy would have collapsed had the Russian government carried on exactly as things were before sanctions. No economy will really truly collapse while the people in it need an economy: they will make changes. At some point those changes might include stopping the war and getting rid of Putin. I don't think all commentators fall into this…
I agree with you that war can easily become unpopular and turn people against their government. But is there any country, whose economy has been sanctioned by the foreigners and crippled by it, where the people then decided to overthrow their government? As far as I know my history, no. Foreign sanctions easily give every country an easy excuse to blame all economic problems on the foreigners. In every instance, they…
I admit I don't know a huge amount about the history of sanctions. I would think it's a relatively modern phenomenon. In any case, yes I'd agree that people aren't going to cite them as a direct cause. Retrospectively they won't say that sanctions directly led to a political change. They add additional pressure.
I don't see the people in Russia overthrowing their government either. It seems more likely that internal public pressure would embolden a political change. It only takes the second layer collectively deciding it's politically expedient.
That doesn't necessarily mean the war stops though. Russia has been reshaping itself into a war economy to keep going, that might be hard to unwind.
Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with you that war can easily become unpopular and turn people against their government. But is there any country, whose economy has been sanctioned by the foreigners and crippled by it, where the people then decided to overthrow their government? As far as I know my history, no. Foreign sanctions easily give every country an easy excuse to blame all economic problems on the foreigners. In every instance, they…
> But is there any country, whose economy has been sanctioned by the foreigners and crippled by it, where the people then decided to overthrow their government? Arguably the Soviet Union. There's also a fairly strong argument, I think, that apartheid South Africa jumped before it was pushed, here. There was also an attempt in Belarus, but Belarus is imperfectly sanctioned; it has Russia propping it up. There is no su…
Can you share some sources for the claim on Soviet union disintegrating because of sanctions? As far as I am aware, the USSR collapsed because its economy was mismanaged and extended, and the planned US move to depress oil prices finally pushed it over the edge. Moreover, Gorbachev was also an important factor to this.
Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the same every time I read this, but at one point it has to give, right? Nothing is going well and economically the population is feeling it. I imagine this can’t go on much longer.
Oil is up by 100% in recent weeks. It might have to give, but probably not with these prices.
Their oil terminals are getting blown up at a faster pace than oil prices are increasing.
Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#65I've heard this about a hundred times over the years.
I think the same every time I read this, but at one point it has to give, right? Nothing is going well and economically the population is feeling it. I imagine this can’t go on much longer.
"A man who promises it'll rain will eventually be correct"
Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because they are rich people who are in the rich parts of the richest cities. I’m sure if you walked the streets of Moscow in 1988 you wouldn’t see any significant struggle among the elite.
I am sure you have not walked the streets of Moscow in 1988. As someone who had, I can assure you, it was not very pretty.
Was the Russian party elite starving or not in 1988?
Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am sure you have not walked the streets of Moscow in 1988. As someone who had, I can assure you, it was not very pretty.
Was the Russian party elite starving or not in 1988?
I am not sure what is "the Russian party elite". Regardless, how is this related to what people would see walking the streets in Moscow? (lines to the stores, people selling their belongings or random shit they have got in lieu of salary at work, delipidated buildings, literal open dirt everywhere etc).
Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#68Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#69It's ironic that Economist keeps pushing this propaganda year after year, but it's UK that has worse and worse performing PM's, but every single one of them keep dreaming not about their own country and economy, but how to topple Putin.
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Re: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
Was the Russian party elite starving or not in 1988?
I am not sure what is "the Russian party elite". Regardless, how is this related to what people would see walking the streets in Moscow? (lines to the stores, people selling their belongings or random shit they have got in lieu of salary at work, delipidated buildings, literal open dirt everywhere etc).
You do not know what the party elite of the communist party was in the Soviet Union?