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Apocalypse Early Warning System

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61–70 of 137 posts

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#61
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You didn't include the locals, we're not huge fans of being considered a liferaft by people who have actively worked to make the world worse. And we have a can do spirit (and earthmoving equipment...)

I suggest calling one of these bunkers Khazad Dum.

It would certainly align with Thiel's naming predilections...

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#62
post #2

I'll ask the obvious: wouldn't the aircraft just take to the skies directly, without bothering with the formality of setting their transponder, if they were knowingly escaping an apocalypse scenario?

There’s no formality. For planes with ADS-B out, it’s on when the plane is on (barring it being explicitly disabled by yanking the fuse).

Plus transponders are really convenient when you’re trying not to crash into other air traffic. Particularly in a scenario where you might be expecting ATC to be unavailable or abandoning their posts.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#63
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIK the transponder kind of turns itself on when powering on the plane, you'd have to explicitly disable it but then you'd have weird discussions with the airport tower guiding you to a free timeslot on the runway which would just delay your takeoff, since ignoring the airport tower is a good way to not get off the ground at all because you'll accidentally be hit by some other plane.

99.99% of airports do not have "timeslots on the runway." Most airports in the US have no tower whatsoever.

But I bet if you filter for airports that business jets park at, the percentage of airports without towers is much lower than the overall average.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#64
post #3

Fun idea of a metric, but if I'm reading this correctly, we get roughly one apocalypse warning per year? > Level 5 is calibrated so only the highest daily peak in the trailing year should exceed it.

So, if you see a 5, you are probably fine. If it gets up to 6 or 7, maybe start worrying.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#65
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll definitely put money on that one around December for a quick return. Thanks for the tip

Why wait till December? Aren't there higher returns the earlier you put money?

Is that how it works? I don't gamble sorry. But this one I will gamble on, heavily

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#66
post #56
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it profitable? Current price for No is $.96. Making 4% in 8 months is better than most sure bets but less than the stock market on average.

Stock market's historical average is actually just about 4%/year after inflation. So it does beat it (absent fees), but just barely.

Barely above a high yield savings account I guess.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#67
By definition it's a bit of a lagging indicator, unless we assume that all these folks have better access to inside information than the rest of us. Given that I was well aware of, for example, the likelihood of a Covid pandemic well before a bunch of rich people flew to New Zealand, it seems likely that CNN is gonna be a better gauge.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're talking about nuclear war, I don't think you could expect Polymarket to pay out in the aftermath. So anyone betting on one would be pretty dumb.

But betting against one could pay off?

Betting against dumb people is often a good strategy.
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