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If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

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Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#61

Post by DetroitThrow »

troglodytetrain wrote: post #53
tristanj wrote: post #29

This question has multiple layers of thinking: 1. People who can't read pick randomly. 2. People who can read, but are too dumb to model or care about other people pick red. 3. People with enough intelligence for basic cognitive empathy pick blue. 4. People a little smarter and think through game theory overall pick red, and think they are smart for doing so. 5. People smarter than #4 and capable of seeing the big pi…

Your entire logical chain, and your self importance, well, it explains why I'm always picking red. If you win and most pick blue, I'm safe, otherwise, I'm also safe. You get to feel intellectually superior choosing the only option that can lead you to die. The simple answer is everyone should pick red.

>The simple answer is everyone should pick red.

The simplest answer is that everyone should pick blue, actually.

This is because choosing blue results in no consequences, but choosing red does result in consequences. Why not choose the simple option? It's literally the "no consequences" button.

Seems like these reds are overcomplicating a simple question.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#62

Post by empthought »

eikenberry wrote: post #41
rbren wrote: post #9

Considerations: * many people (at least toddlers, people with dementia) are going to press blue roughly by accident. See the lizardman constant * other people will not want to be responsible for any deaths and will press blue out of a sense of moral imperative * many other people are going to take this into account and vote blue out of hopes we can save everyone You should vote blue.

Puzzles like this are based on assumptions like all participants are rational adults with their full faculties.

This one explicitly is not.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#63

Post by lukasgelbmann »

chias wrote: post #39
vmg12 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dilemma is that a lot of people will press blue so if red gets above 50% a large number of selfless but not game-theory aware people will die.

but why would anybody choose blue? there is no moral benefit to doing so. If you altered the game to say that only some fraction of the population get the choice, and everyone who doesn't get the choice is assumed blue (or, is killed if less than 50% of voters choose blue) then there's some question to be explored here. But at it stands there is literally no reason to choose blue.

There’s a moral benefit to choosing blue if you think there’s a chance that the end result will be split 50-50 and you’ll be the deciding vote between a blue majority and a red majority.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#64

Post by gus_massa »

jonkho wrote: post #33
wavemode wrote: post #11

This is like a prisoner's dilemma, but with no payoff for the risky option. In a prisoner's dilemma, you can choose a risky option (stay quiet), but the potential reward is that if the other prisoner also stays quiet then you both go completely free. But if one prisoner instead speaks up and accuses the other prisoner, the accuser gets a short sentence and the one who stayed quiet gets a max sentence. But in this sce…

The dilemma is that there are some people who are not smart enough to understand this and will press blue.

There is no dilemma, just a bad model. In this model, everyone press red and survive. Solved in 10 seconds.

If you want a dilemma, it must be inside the model, for example: a 10% of the buttons are miss wired, and the system register the oposite color

So if red wins, at least 10% die. If blue wins, everyone survives. Now you have a dilemma. Which button would you press?

PS: If a country has 20 cities and one of them has a big majority of red-pressers, is it moral to nuke it out of existence?

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#65

Post by DetroitThrow »

allajfjwbwkwja wrote: post #59
tristanj wrote: post #29

This question has multiple layers of thinking: 1. People who can't read pick randomly. 2. People who can read, but are too dumb to model or care about other people pick red. 3. People with enough intelligence for basic cognitive empathy pick blue. 4. People a little smarter and think through game theory overall pick red, and think they are smart for doing so. 5. People smarter than #4 and capable of seeing the big pi…

(6) isn't correct. Left alone, everyone rational would pick red because it's the only logical option. You trying to convince them otherwise might end up getting 49% of the population killed. You should try to get everyone to pick red, not blue.

Left alone, everyone rational would pick blue, actually.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#66

Post by hx8 »

tristanj wrote: post #29

This question has multiple layers of thinking: 1. People who can't read pick randomly. 2. People who can read, but are too dumb to model or care about other people pick red. 3. People with enough intelligence for basic cognitive empathy pick blue. 4. People a little smarter and think through game theory overall pick red, and think they are smart for doing so. 5. People smarter than #4 and capable of seeing the big pi…

You've structured ways to think about the problem in a hierarchy of intelligence, which is a classic economics mistake. People are not rational actors, and the primary factors determining who pushes the button will be self-preservation or group-preservation. Emotional factors.

Also, I think that's a simplistic view of intelligence.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#67

Post by allajfjwbwkwja »

DetroitThrow wrote: post #65
allajfjwbwkwja wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(6) isn't correct. Left alone, everyone rational would pick red because it's the only logical option. You trying to convince them otherwise might end up getting 49% of the population killed. You should try to get everyone to pick red, not blue.

Left alone, everyone rational would pick blue, actually.

And why do you think that?

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#68

Post by hx8 »

owenpalmer wrote: post #35
hx8 wrote: post #17

Hello, Blue Presser here. We learn something about humanity based on the results of the poll. It's naive to think that 100% of people will press the red button. Some people will die if red wins. I think pressing red is selfish and violent, in that it can result in the death of human life by their own unwillingness to cooperate. If we are not willing to work together in order to protect each other then I have a very p…

> It's naive to think that 100% of people will press the red button. Those who press the blue button are trying to save those who press the blue button. If they weren't trying to save each other, they wouldn't have to.

So you agree, there is a population of blue pressers.

EDIT: The mere existence of blue-pressers makes being a red presser violent and selfish in my opinion.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#69

Post by blululu »

hx8 wrote: post #17

Hello, Blue Presser here. We learn something about humanity based on the results of the poll. It's naive to think that 100% of people will press the red button. Some people will die if red wins. I think pressing red is selfish and violent, in that it can result in the death of human life by their own unwillingness to cooperate. If we are not willing to work together in order to protect each other then I have a very p…

Good points, though I think cooperation benefits the ethical outcomes for both sides.

If we all work together to make sure that as many people press the red button as possible, then we can minimize the damage. The problem with the blue campaign is that the outcome gets progressively worse until it gets to the best outcome. 49% mortality is high and terrible unless you are very sure that the red campaign is going to lose. The ethical take on the red side is to minimize blue votes to zero.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#70

Post by 1659447091 »

These are so intensely annoying.

Besides the obvious choice of not pushing any button, so very rarely -- if at all -- are there only ever 2 options. The entire "thought experiment" leans into some fantastical unrealistic scenarios and plays on peoples "fast thinking" by saying here are 2 options I made up, tell me which of these 2 groups (us or them) shall I sort you into? Neither.

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