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At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

cnn.com

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Re: At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

#61

Post by andyjohnson0 »

Three things:

1. Many people intuitively assume that clumping/clustering of events implies non-randomness, and that random processes are smooth and low-variance. The opposite is true [1].

2. A consequence of 1. is that people often over-estimate their understanding of the likelihood of events and the degree to which they are conditional/dependent.

3. There was an intriguing comment on this site a few days ago [2], referencing Daniel Kahneman's work on System 1 and System 2 thinking. From memory it said that reality is a lot less explicable than we tend to think - and that a lot of what we casually think we know about the everyday world is just our brains filling in the gaps using quick and cheap System 1.

As to why people are clutching at science-fictional interpretations: perhaps they're looking for some excitement or novelty? That would be very human.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

[2] Unfortunately I cant find the comment. I wish I'd favourited it.

Re: At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

#62

Post by 2ndorderthought »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #51
delichon wrote: post #33

The NameUs US public database of around 26k longer term active missing person cases adds around 600 new names per month. It doesn't seem odd that a handful over years would share a narrow professional interest. But that number, 20 disappeared people per day, is gut wrenching. (US murders are at around 40 per day.) Surveillance sucks, but maybe at least it can be leveraged to find patterns when married to NameUs data.…

You aren't going to find the missing people with more surveillance if you weren't finding them already.

Agreed. Especially if there is any likelihood that the people doing the surveillance are doing the disappearings. It only makes it easier.

Re: At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

#63

Post by martin-t »

delichon wrote: post #33

The NameUs US public database of around 26k longer term active missing person cases adds around 600 new names per month. It doesn't seem odd that a handful over years would share a narrow professional interest. But that number, 20 disappeared people per day, is gut wrenching. (US murders are at around 40 per day.) Surveillance sucks, but maybe at least it can be leveraged to find patterns when married to NameUs data.…

I'll happily take 20 missing people per day in exchange for the ability to organize a demonstration[0] or an uprising when needed and for not being disappeared myself when the surveillance net falls into the hands of the next (or current) despot.

[0]: I don't like the word protest because words are meaningless. A mass gathering of people is a demonstration of force because manpower means firepower and firepower means simple power as all real world power comes from violence.

Re: At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

#64

Post by Eldt »

ljm wrote: post #42

This basically sounds like the start of Three Body Problem by Liu Cixin. Are we going to learn that physics no longer exists?

Some UFO guys have been claiming that a hoax will be conducted around the idea of an alien ship detected travelling towards Earth

Re: At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

#67

Post by Cpoll »

derektank wrote: post #55
spacephysics wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d slightly disagree, the profile of people who go missing is as important as a random chance there is a coincidence. Former military officers, high-level scientists. These individuals have training, money, and live in areas where this tends not to happen. A disappearance of someone from the above background, vs someone who is say in midwest rural America or near areas where human trafficking crimes occur at a highe…

>Former military officers, high-level scientists. These individuals have training, money, and live in areas where this tends not to happen. From my personal experience, these are also the kinds of people that enjoy challenging and thrill seeking hobbies like mountain climbing, backpacking, etc that put them in a position where there’s some not insignificant chance of death in a remote location.

They usually tell people when they're going climbing.

Re: At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

#68

Post by rdtsc »

I think what someone needs to do is before looking up these names or professions, first define a the category of "sensitive US research" well enough (specific institutions, areas, level of access, seniority, etc) and only after that look at history to total missing persons and then decide if there is more or less of them missing in proportion to the total.

Re: At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

#69

Post by Jblx2 »

andyjohnson0 wrote: post #61

Three things: 1. Many people intuitively assume that clumping/clustering of events implies non-randomness, and that random processes are smooth and low-variance. The opposite is true [1]. 2. A consequence of 1. is that people often over-estimate their understanding of the likelihood of events and the degree to which they are conditional/dependent. 3. There was an intriguing comment on this site a few days ago [2], re…

Anyone else feel a bit queasy about citing Kahneman as a source anymore?

https://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/20/placed-much-faith-und...

Re: At least 10 people tied to sensitive US research have died or disappeared

#70

Post by unethical_ban »

martin-t wrote: post #63
delichon wrote: post #33

The NameUs US public database of around 26k longer term active missing person cases adds around 600 new names per month. It doesn't seem odd that a handful over years would share a narrow professional interest. But that number, 20 disappeared people per day, is gut wrenching. (US murders are at around 40 per day.) Surveillance sucks, but maybe at least it can be leveraged to find patterns when married to NameUs data.…

I'll happily take 20 missing people per day in exchange for the ability to organize a demonstration[0] or an uprising when needed and for not being disappeared myself when the surveillance net falls into the hands of the next (or current) despot. [0]: I don't like the word protest because words are meaningless. A mass gathering of people is a demonstration of force because manpower means firepower and firepower means…

It should be clear that martin-t is not "happy" about disappearances.

I've thought the same thing they expressed - perfect surveillance, if put into practice with omnipresent cameras tied to AI analysis for infinite government agents tracking each of us, would not be used to solve all crime but would be used to pre-emptively end any eventual needed revolution or mass uprising against the state.

Just because we can do something doesn't mean we should.

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