'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet • Hacker News Board

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#61

Post by olelele » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

dlenski wrote: post #42

hrimfaxi wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, there are plenty of negative externalities that this type of gambling brings that are much worse, but at least in this case it does appear that authorities are investigating. At the very least I would expect some law to be broken if interfering with official weather data collection at an active airport.

I agree, but the fact that authorities even have to spend time investigating is a massive negative externality. A few years years ago, there was no conceivable profit motive for interfering with weather sensors on public property. Now there is one.

This is the definitive argument for me against prediction markets. It creates incentives to do really dumb shit.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#62

Post by whatisthiseven » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

thimabi wrote: post #10

guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

Unlikely regulators will do anything given Trump's son is involved with both companies.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#63

Post by happyopossum » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

> While it is unclear how the temperature might have been manipulated, one possibility shared on weather forums was that a battery-powered hairdryer could have been used

Man I hate headline writers…

We’re I contracted to (legally and ethically) red team a temperature station, a “battery powered hair dryer” would be pretty low on my list of techniques for a number of reasons. First attempts would involve mirrors - parabolic or otherwise- to heat the device from a distance without potentially affecting wind speed / direction sensors.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#64

Post by mschuster91 » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:46 PM UTC

ortusdux wrote: post #57

ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

Usually the TOS of these betting markets prohibits tampering. IIRC, someone bet on a streaker at the super bowl, did the streaking themselves, made 6-figures on the bet, bragged about it publicly, and the market negated the bet and recovered the money.

> IRC, the TOS of these betting markets prohibits tampering.

Good luck proving it.

> IIRC, someone bet on a streaker at the super bowl, did the streaking themselves, made 6-figures on the bet, bragged about it publicly, and the market negated the bet and recovered the money.

Yeah, exactly. Far easier to prove and to even get the idea to investigate that person in the first place.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#65

Post by tantalor » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:46 PM UTC

bloppe wrote: post #8

guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

If polymarket were staking wagers on its own platform, then it would have to worry about the integrity of the contracts, which is a nonstarter

You're wrong. The big prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) employ in-house market makers and contractors. They provide liquidity for less-active contracts. They generally are not profitable.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#66

Post by thaumasiotes » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:46 PM UTC

ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

> until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a fortified compound in order to do so.

A fortified compound would affect the temperature reading.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#67

Post by hughw » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:46 PM UTC

mndgs wrote: post #4

Beautiful con, tbh. I don't welcome this behavior (borderline criminal), but you have to admit - well played.

well over the border

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#68

Post by dwa3592 » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:47 PM UTC

Idea : "Manipulation of real world events because correct prediction of real world events is incentivized."

Try to scale this anywhere from hairdryer usage to trip temp sensors to nuclear bombs going off in poor countries.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#69

Post by peterbonney » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:47 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #34

ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.

The total open interest of all major prediction markets is barely over a billion dollars. (1) That's the total amount of money currently wagered on ALL contracts across all platforms.

There are roughly 2,500 individual companies listed in the US alone with a market cap that exceeds 1 billion dollars. Tesla's market cap is 1.4 trillion - about 1,000 times the size of all prediction markets put together.

In other words, to the extent this incentive is of societal concern, it is not because of prediction markets - that is the tail wagging the dog.

Edit: to be clear I think these markets are a scourge as they currently operate, but not for this reason.

(1) https://predik.io/en/blog/open-interest-mercados-prediccion-...

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#70

Post by gizajob » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:47 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #34

ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

Just wait until they start killing people to win bets. It's going to happen. It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.

Don’t even need a gambling marketplace for that - could already put a massive short on TSLA and have a pop at Elon if you were so motivated.